- Aug 24, 2020
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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)
- Thread starter vegster
- Start date
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,534
Increasing Russian hybrid activities in the Baltic:
I can remember, as far back as summer of 2022, when Russia was finding the war tough going, RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) predicting that as Russia finds less success on the battlefield, we would see increased activity on other fronts.
I can remember, as far back as summer of 2022, when Russia was finding the war tough going, RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) predicting that as Russia finds less success on the battlefield, we would see increased activity on other fronts.
This seems like a really poor decision from them. What do they think the result will be? Do they expect the West to say 'oh, I don't like it, we better do what they want or they'll cut another cable'? It's just going to unite the West against them and encourage more support for Ukraine, so we can stop them while we have the chance.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,534
Indeed. You can't rationalise it.
The only thing I can think of, is that the culture of threat and intimidation is so ingrained, that rather than evaluate all other options, they double down on the aggression, because they have been successful with it in the past. It is what they do and they don't know any other way.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,534
Is this a new development? I seem to remember an attack on Ust-Luga a while ago. And you can see why the oil terminals are well defended.
I think it was Peter Zeihan who first discussed the value of taking out the oil terminals, as that would mean that with the oil having nowhere to go, the oil would back up along the pipeline, possibly all the way to the well head. The Russians would then have no option but to cap the well, which I understand is a difficult thing to get flowing again.
I think it was today's news, but it's been targetted before.
fly high
Well-known member
Yes, he said most wells are in Siberia and when they are shut down they and the whole pipeline freeze, takes at least 30 years to get up and running again andcost a lot. Would maybe mean not worth doing until sanctions lifted so 40 + years, who will need it that much by then? Could be worthless. Keep blowing them up chaps.
Sirnormangall
Well-known member
- Sep 21, 2017
- 3,256
Based on the views of the admittedly small number of people I’ve met from Bratislava, they despise the old Soviet regime that they were a part of and despise their current government as essentially a bunch of EU freeloaders
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,534
Now this is what Paul Warburg is good at. Taking a subject, doing his research, and presenting it in a way that few of us, if any, were aware of.
TLDR: Transnistria can no longer get Russian gas from the pipeline that Ukraine has just shut down. Transnistria could get power from Moldova, but Russia does not want this, so instead, the Transnistrian government is giving advice to its citizens to avoid dying from hypothermia.
(The route the gas was going, and who owns the gas transmission company, is mind-bending).
TLDR: Transnistria can no longer get Russian gas from the pipeline that Ukraine has just shut down. Transnistria could get power from Moldova, but Russia does not want this, so instead, the Transnistrian government is giving advice to its citizens to avoid dying from hypothermia.
(The route the gas was going, and who owns the gas transmission company, is mind-bending).
crookie
Well-known member
Ukraine pushing forward again in Kursk according to multiple sources including BBC.
That's interesting, I look forward to hearing more. While I don't think Russia are capable of taking Ukraine, or even holding on to what they have long term as their economy crashes, I have taken it for granted that they'll simply throw enough corpses at Kursk to get it all back fairly soon. It will have been a worthwhile mission for Ukraine, simply because of how much it's cost Russia and how much it's drawn from the rest of their war effort, but inevitably come to an end anyway.
I really wasn't expecting Ukraine might get the chance to push forward again.
fly high
Well-known member
Think maybe it was intended as a negotiation leaver.
Ali_rrr
Well-known member
My stepmum is Slovak and I was there during the Christmas period.
Bloke met with Putin in Russia and was missing for 2 weeks. Turns out he’s been living it lavish in Vietnam for 2 weeks at a 6000€ a night hotel… his monthly salary is around 11-12k€.
Lots of Slovaks especially in Bratislava remember what the Soviets did in Czechoslovakia and do not forgive them. The area of Petržalka is a concrete jungle of high rise apartment blocks where people were forcibly moved to. The issue is some people feel that the issues of LGBTI are more concerning than what is actually going on in the country, austerity, Russian influence etc.
I read somewhere that any pro-Russian sentiment is mainly in the rural areas (I'm not trying to minimize it) , whereas the city populations tend to be pro EU and anti Russian.
Does that sound about right to you? Cheers
.Possibly trying to show they are on the front foot (Ukraine's been very slowly losing small amounts of territory in Donbas ) before Trump gets into power
.
Ali_rrr
Well-known member
Yes absolutely.I read somewhere that any pro-Russian sentiment is mainly in the rural areas (I'm not trying to minimize it) , whereas the city populations tend to be pro EU and anti Russian.
Does that sound about right to you? Cheers
