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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)







peterward

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Nov 11, 2009
12,739
Brilliant! That's cheered me up before getting into bed 😁.
I knew Italy were considering cancelling starlink: Meloni is onside and sensible.

Also pleasing that US defense stocks are crashing (as Europe's rise)👍🏼.
hmmm tbh I saw that quoted about Italy starlink from a usually reliable account, but on searching cant actually find anything yet other than theyre talking to Eutelsat and strongly considering cancelling?

But what Meloni has proposed tonight is extending NATO article 5 to Ukraine, without them being a full NATO member. Now thats a security guarantee worth something!

Obvs frog face Orban will boot lick for Putin and try and block.

 












raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
8,713
Wiltshire
Serious question: What is to stop European countries using their military planes to shoot down Russian missiles and drones over Ukraine? If they are not attacking Russia or Russian personnel, hard to see this being spun as an escalation.
I read this possibility in the Kyiv Independent just now - are you part of the European military panel 😉.
Sky Shield .
Apparently some European leaders don't like the idea because if one plane on either side is downed in error... it's a serious escalation...🤷🏼‍♂️. Really, what do they think would happen with 50000 peacekeepers along the front line? only tea parties? there will be problems either solution.
Sky Shield sounds good to me though.
I expect Trump to veto the idea.

Oh wait, didn't the RAF help the US with aircraft to shoot down Iranian missiles heading for Israel 🤔
 


peterward

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Nov 11, 2009
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I read this possibility in the Kyiv Independent just now - are you part of the European military panel 😉.
Sky Shield .
Apparently some European leaders don't like the idea because if one plane on either side is downed in error... it's a serious escalation...🤷🏼‍♂️. Really, what do they think would happen with 50000 peacekeepers along the front line? only tea parties? there will be problems either solution.
Sky Shield sounds good to me though.
I expect Trump to veto the idea.

Oh wait, didn't the RAF help the US with aircraft to shoot down Iranian missiles heading for Israel 🤔
If this is true, from British Lieutenant Colonel, and I guess our perceptions is it looks mist likely right now... then Yes, he will veto.

 






raymondo

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Apr 26, 2017
8,713
Wiltshire
If this is true, from British Lieutenant Colonel, and I guess our perceptions is it looks mist likely right now... then Yes, he will veto.

If he vetoes it then it's more proof that he's following the Putin playbook, yes?
 


raymondo

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Apr 26, 2017
8,713
Wiltshire
From the BBC website. Well, Trump's certainly thrown the Ukrainian pieces on the ground, not sure he's touched Russian pieces yet.
Aha...and the Middle East peace has been going so well...

"Ezra Cohen, a former US defence official, is convinced a peace deal will happen.
"President Trump sees the mineral deal as a key component to keeping the US engaged for decades to come," he tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
"President Trump is a master of breaking through stagnant situations. There are many examples of this – the Abraham Accords of the first term, breaking through the stagnation of Middle East peace – and he is doing that again here.
"He is trying to not just rearrange the pieces on the board, he's throwing the pieces on the ground and then resetting them on the board."
 








Brovion

In my defence, I was left unsupervised.
NSC Patron
Jul 6, 2003
20,142
I note he has suspended the 25% tariff on Mexican goods AGAIN for another month.

Is he just all mouth and trousers ???
Because he's got the intellect of a toddler the one thing I'm clinging to is that he could for once pay attention to the grown-ups and not his nursery playmates. Then he might suddenly pivot on Ukraine and start supporting them again. Of course once back in the nursery he could then pivot back ...
 




SouthSaxon

Stand or fall
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Jan 25, 2025
348
Serious question: What is to stop European countries using their military planes to shoot down Russian missiles and drones over Ukraine? If they are not attacking Russia or Russian personnel, hard to see this being spun as an escalation.
I’ve seen reports this morning that Ukraine used French jets for the first time to take out some of the missiles overnight. These were promised by Macron last year and they’ve been training Ukrainian pilots.
 


raymondo

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Apr 26, 2017
8,713
Wiltshire
Rumoured here that weaponry supplies to Ukraine have been restored...I haven't read it elsewhere though.

Interview is with ex General Breedlove, pro Ukraine, and says sanctions MUST be maintained against Russia for the long term to ensure they don't break any ceasefire. Given Trump's rhetoric, I the the general is going to be disappointed.
 
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Brovion

In my defence, I was left unsupervised.
NSC Patron
Jul 6, 2003
20,142
I seriously think that if/when China invade Taiwan...Trump will flip and support China.
"Taiwan had it coming to them, they encouraged this"
" Taiwan wouldn't share their semi-conductor engineering with China for free"
"China is so much bigger, Taiwan should have rolled over"

...it's so much easier to join in and support the big guys, far less risk to oneself.
Yes, that is more than a slight possibility and the same thought had crossed my mind. I suppose in the modern world it makes a crazy kind of sense. We know that American and Russia are united against Ukraine, but on the other hand Russia and China are united against America. So why not America and China uniting against Taiwan? In the current climate it seems almost logical.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
8,713
Wiltshire
Yes, that is more than a slight possibility and the same thought had crossed my mind. I suppose in the modern world it makes a crazy kind of sense. We know that American and Russia are united against Ukraine, but on the other hand Russia and China are united against America. So why not America and China uniting against Taiwan? In the current climate it seems almost logical.
Yep, in the twisted world politics we have, it seems quite possible. The autocrats will do what they want when they want (for now anyway).
 




SouthSaxon

Stand or fall
NSC Patron
Jan 25, 2025
348
Something else for people to keep in mind - I wasn’t aware of this until just now. Stephen Kinnock said this on the morning rounds today:
Donald Trump has never said that he thinks the United States should leave Nato
That’s not accurate - he was reported to have said this repeatedly in private during his first term. That’s referenced in this NewsWeek report from December, where Trump talks about taking a tough line on Europe to make them start “treating us fairly”.

But I also found this referenced in a Business Insider article. In 2019, a bill was passed that means Trump can’t pull the US out of NATO without either a two-thirds majority in the Senate or a Bill of Congress.

It doesn’t force him to honour article 5, or stop him from trying to withdraw, but it’s a reminder he doesn’t have it all his own way. Threats, bluster, hubris and willy waving are his MO.
 




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