[Politics] Brexit

[Kinky Gerbil]

MP's voting in Parliament are not exercising their "democratic right", that is exercised when people vote in an election.

When MP's vote they are fulfilling their democratic duty. To represent the people who sent them there to represent them.

Boris didnt vote to leave twice and he is now PM

 

[Gwylan]

Apparently you seem to think democracy involves voting for people who will then do what they want, regardless of what they said to convince you to elect them, and you can like it or lump it because they are in charge.

That's not the way that parliamentary democracy works. It's a long established belief that MPs vote according to their beliefs or consciences, not necessarily the way that constituents want. I've posted Burke's words on this before but it's worth posting them again "Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion." Other people have posted Churchill's views, which echo Burke's.

Your view is very much out of step with the way that parliament operates.

 

[Eeyore]

Oddschecker is letting me down a little at the moment.

What do you wise folk think is the most likely outcome (whether we'll leave with a soft or hard brexit, or remain)?

I can't see a hard BREXIT at this stage.

But if there is an option for F*** Knows then go with that.

You won't win much though.

 

[highflyer]

 

[Triggaaar]

I can't see a hard BREXIT at this stage.

But if there is an option for F*** Knows then go with that.

You won't win much though.

I'm not wanting to place a bet, I'm just wanting to see what's likely to happen.

 

[Ernest]

I wonder if Johnson regrets becoming PM

 

[WATFORD zero]

If that's all that happened, then it seems a big deal wasn't made of it.

I'm sure I remember people in the Remain campaign making a big deal of it.

I had a quick look on Google for 'NI border Brexit' in the run up to the referendum and there are certainly lots of articles on the problems Brexit would throw up in NI (a couple below)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/09/tony-blair-and-john-major-brexit-would-close-irish-border
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/irish-border-controls-are-inevitable-after-brexit-may-warns-1.2693758
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-northern-ireland-peace-process-could-be-set-back-by-brexit-says-lord-mandelson-a6933171.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-36587809

And these are quite significant figures making the point (Blair, Major, May etc etc) through mainstream media.

I suspect that all of these points were shouted down as 'Project Fear' though

Indeed, here are a couple of articles from Leavers (including Johnson) saying exactly that

[URL="http://www.irishnews.com/news/2016/04/18/news/irish-border-concerns-over-brexit-scaremongering-theresa-villiers-489126/"]http://www.irishnews.com/news/2016/04/18/news/irish-border-concerns-over-brexit-scaremongering-theresa-villiers-489126/[/URL]
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-35692452

(All of these links came up on the first page of Google results)

 

[Triggaaar]

I bet you can't or won't answer this - but what should happen with regard to Brexit and the Northern Irish border?

Britain should have a soft Brexit, with a deal like Switzerland. There should be no border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

If the country wants a hard Brexit, fine

It doesn't.

 

[Triggaaar]

I wonder if Johnson regrets becoming PM

I doubt it. He's Trump like (or lite) and the only thing that mattered to him was becoming PM. He's now just trying to work out how to worm his way out of the mess that he's created. He has no principles, and being PM is more important to him than any decisions the house makes. He'd u-turn quicker than Steve Mcqueen if it meant saving his job. I don't fancy predicting what u-turns he'll make, but nothing would surprise me.

 

[ManOfSussex]

If that's all that happened, then it seems a big deal wasn't made of it.

Blair and Major also mentioned it, but it got drowned out as #project fear, Cameron knew better than them and other things got the headlines. There was talk of the remain campaign using Irish politicians and their concerns, but after the Obama backlash that was quietly dropped. All the nationalist parties campaigned for remain and raised their concerns, the unionists didn't for their own reasons, but it was never going resonate and be an issue to English voters at the time.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Britain should have a soft Brexit, with a deal like Switzerland. There should be no border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
It doesn't.

Switzerland has a hard border with France though.

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm sure I remember people in the Remain campaign making a big deal of it.

I had a quick look on Google for 'NI border Brexit' in the run up to the referendum and there are certainly lots of references to the problems Brexit would throw up in NI (a couple below)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/09/tony-blair-and-john-major-brexit-would-close-irish-border

From that article:
The Northern Ireland secretary, Theresa Villiers, who is campaigning for Britain to leave the EU, said she did not accept that Brexit would end the open-border arrangement. In a statement issued by Vote Leave, she said: “The common travel area between the UK and Ireland has existed for nearly 100 years, since the creation of the Irish state in the 1920s. It will continue if we vote to leave.

I would certainly think it's possible to leave the EU and keep the border open, but not with a hard brexit.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

They wouldn't like it but it would be the will of the people after the whole sorry state of affairs from the last 3 years has played out. It is a simple premise as to why there is a belief that a second referendum is needed. That premise is that the original question was a stupid binary question voted for on the basis of lies and spin from both sides as to what would happen if we leave. Having gone through the process, there isn't much more assumption that can be spun. A referendum now would be based on as much information as the public would every likely to have on the options.

I know why you don't like the idea but I can't believe you don't understand the logic. And the most probable reason you don't like the idea is that you believe the public have changed their mind enough to produce a result you don't want. My views on the whole subject are out there if you care to look but in summary I voted remain on instinct because of the lies from both sides during the campaign. I was willing to listen to both sides as I could see the pros and cons of the EU but even as someone not really into politics, I could see that you couldn't just leave and keep the benefits as was being suggested. But there was no real debate on facts - just bluster, scaremongering and lies. So I voted for better the devil you know. I am in no way a "remoaner", as you can't help yourself spouting, but what I am very concerned about is a No Deal. If we leave, we leave but this lemming like "We voted for it so we get it" attitude from large swathes of people is startling. People are willing to suffer or have large numbers of other people suffer because it is "what we voted for".

The fact Cameron is sat counting his book money whilst being 100% responsible for the whole thing is galling beyond belief. A binary question for such an emotive, complex and at the time, unpredictable scenario is unforgivable and has led to this cluster****.

This. Brilliant post. Sums up my feelings entirely.

Also to comment on the 'why was the Irish border not discussed before the referendum?' type questions....luke warm 'remain' folk, most of whom had the same attitude as you (and I), didn't feel the need to engage with all the difficult problems that would face us if the nation voted leave - because most of us thought that 'remain' would win (although I am on record on here of thinking that 'leave' would win - largely because of the way the absurd lies, most of which came from the hard leave camp, were being assimilated into articles of faith by the 'I am not racist, but' elements of middle England). Indeed, none of the difficulties that have beseiged attempts to leave were even discussed before the vote. Any attempt to raise any concerns were met with all that 'project fear' baiting, and promises of 'sunny uplands'.

So we can't decide what to do now based on our pre-vote perceptions. Countless analogies have been posted (such as voting to fly does not make wings grow, etc.), but there is still a noisy minority shouting 'but we voted to leave! Leave means leave'. I think we do need another vote, now we have a clearer idea of what 'leave' means (that clear idea being no idea - it remains a leap into the dark).

That said, I am increasingly of the view that if I we are to leave then we need to do it the Boris way - leave with no deals and then put arrangements in place afterwards, as needs must (and needs will). Why? Because we have had to say we are leaving for the EU to negociate a deal, and having done so we have not been able to agree amongst outselves what we want (althouh the EU accepted May's deal). Now we have run out of time, and this will never end if we don't walk away now. This, of course, is one reason why I am against Brexit.

Rather than have Boris use tricks and wheezes to force a hard Brexit, we really need to accept the reality - it will have to be hard and it will hurt - this means we must have another vote on this (hard Brexit vs no Brexit). Let the Brexiteers be honest and say that getting deals will be hard, explaining why it is worth the hardship to go down this road. Let's see how many leavers will bring up the old reasons - to stop millions of Turks and Iranians swamping the UK etc.....

It is no good brexiteers screaming and crying about how unfair anoter vote would be, and that we voted leave.....it is too late for that. They are risking Brexit not happening by being silly. The ERG veto'd a Brexit deal agreed between May and the EU (OK it was a shit deal, but I think Brexit is shit anyway, and nobody can define a good Brexit...so....we could have left by now, and we coald be busy fixing the unresolved issues now, rather than be where we are, but the ERG said 'no').

But this really isn't the end of politics. It is just....politics.

 

[Lever]

That's not the way that parliamentary democracy works. It's a long established belief that MPs vote according to their beliefs or consciences, not necessarily the way that constituents want. I've posted Burke's words on this before but it's worth posting them again "Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion." Other people have posted Churchill's views, which echo Burke's.

Your view is very much out of step with the way that parliament operates.

Why is it that some people simply do not seem to grasp this fundamental point?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Britain should have a soft Brexit, with a deal like Switzerland. There should be no border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
It doesn't.

Switzerland is in Schengen which involves Free Movement.

 

[Mtoto]

I'm not wanting to place a bet, I'm just wanting to see what's likely to happen.

No-Deal Brexit in 2019 has drifted from 2.3 to 5 on Betfair in the last 48 hours. They don't have a market on No-Deal Brexit in 2020 as yet.

 

[Dick Head]

I see you are just as graceful in defeat as you are in victory. Classy.


VIVA LA REBEL ALLIANCE!

I hope you read it in a whiny Yorkshire accent à la Gavin Williamson to Russia.

 

[WATFORD zero]

From that article:
The Northern Ireland secretary, Theresa Villiers, who is campaigning for Britain to leave the EU, said she did not accept that Brexit would end the open-border arrangement. In a statement issued by Vote Leave, she said: “The common travel area between the UK and Ireland has existed for nearly 100 years, since the creation of the Irish state in the 1920s. It will continue if we vote to leave.

I would certainly think it's possible to leave the EU and keep the border open, but not with a hard brexit.

There's certainly ways of leaving without a hard border (although a significant number of leave voters would insist that wasn't what they voted for), but the point I was making is that the issues around NI/Ireland were bought up prior to referendum, in the national media by senior figures.

But, like so many other things, they were simply dismissed as 'project fear'.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

There's certainly ways of leaving without a hard border (although a significant number of leave voters would insist that wasn't what they voted for), but the point I was making is that the issues around NI/Ireland were bought up prior to referendum, in the national media by senior figures.

But, like so many other things, they were simply dismissed as 'project fear'.

They were also raised in this very thread, prior to the referendum, as most likely being the biggest issue.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

There's certainly ways of leaving without a hard border (although a significant number of leave voters would insist that wasn't what they voted for), but the point I was making is that the issues around NI/Ireland were bought up prior to referendum, in the national media by senior figures.

But, like so many other things, they were simply dismissed as 'project fear'.

"Project Fear" and "No deal is better than a bad deal" were the 2 most malicious slogans which have virtually ruined any chance of getting a decent Brexit deal that works for the ordinary citizen.