[Politics] Brexit

[WATFORD zero]

Arrogant prick
Regards
DF

Someone need a cuddle ?

 

[TheJasperCo]

Yes. There's hard infrastructure on the border for checks which causes delays, as per Norway/Sweden, Bulgaria/Turkey, Poland/Ukraine etc and every other border in the world with differing customs and regulatory regimes.

It's sobering seeing the queues at the border between Gibraltar and Spain. For pedestrians walking through (either direction), it's actually not too bad - the Guardia Civil and UK Border staff don't seem to care much of the time. A different story for vehicles moving in and out - there's gridlock practically 18 hours a day, one way or the other.

 

[Triggaaar]

On what's likely to happen (as oppose to what I want).

I really can't see a way out of this clusterf*** without a second referendum and have thought this for a significant while. (I'm guessing via GE, referendum, GE).

But whenever I've checked, the bookies seem to thing a second referendum is extremely unlikely.

Out of interest, do you have any ideas for an alternative way forward (that would get through parliament etc) ?

The idea that Boris has put forward, is that he'd go to the EU with a simple 'No Deal', or let's work out a deal that I can get through parliament. I think this would be the best way to get a suitable soft Brexit deal that parliament would be happy with, but the problem is that Boris is an untrustworthy, self-serving duplicitous c*nt who would stab his own grandmother, so no sensible person would let him go to the EU with that power.

What I think we could do is put to parliament a Switzerland style deal. A deal that would be ok for the UK, and would also be fair to the EU. If parliament voted to accept it, and parliament put in law that we would have to accept that deal if the EU were agreeable, then you could send someone even as crap as Boris to the EU with a take it or leave it offer. If the EU were to accept the deal, then that would be that. If the EU were to reject the deal, then we would then leave without a deal.

Leaving without a deal would of course be very bad for the UK, the EU, the US, China, and most other countries, because there would be a knock on affect. But in this scenario, leaving without a deal would be up to the EU to decide, so I'd expect them to take the deal.

 

[Postman Pat]

Thanks. So a No Deal Brexit is unlikely to happen this year. What does Betfair say is the most likely conclusion to all this?

Paddy Power odds:
To leave EU in 2019
No 1/2
Yes 6/4

Second Ref before end 2019
No 1/100
Yes 12/1

No deal Brexit in 2019
No - 1/5
Yes 3/1

Result of 2nd Referendum
Remain 2/1
Leave 5/1

Article 50 to be revoked before end 2020
No 4/11
Yes 2/1

KFC to close chicken outlets due to running out of chicken 11/4

Queen to move to Ireland 150/1

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

No-Deal Brexit in 2019 has drifted from 2.3 to 5 on Betfair in the last 48 hours. They don't have a market on No-Deal Brexit in 2020 as yet.

A big factor in those odds is whether or not Corbyn is goaded into an election before October 31st.

 

[Stat Brother]

It's sobering seeing the queues at the border between Gibraltar and Spain. For pedestrians walking through (either direction), it's actually not too bad - the Guardia Civil and UK Border staff don't seem to care much of the time. A different story for vehicles moving in and out - there's gridlock practically 18 hours a day, one way or the other.

The article I copied into re France & Switzerland appears to say much the same.
The border for lorries is very different than the border for 'obvious' commuters.

It's hard to imagine any kind of Irish border being implemented and managed smoothly.

 

[WATFORD zero]

But whenever I've checked, the bookies seem to thing a second referendum is extremely unlikely.

The idea that Boris has put forward, is that he'd go to the EU with a simple 'No Deal', or let's work out a deal that I can get through parliament. I think this would be the best way to get a suitable soft Brexit deal that parliament would be happy with, but the problem is that Boris is an untrustworthy, self-serving duplicitous c*nt who would stab his own grandmother, so no sensible person would let him go to the EU with that power.

What I think we could do is put to parliament a Switzerland style deal. A deal that would be ok for the UK, and would also be fair to the EU. If parliament voted to accept it, and parliament put in law that we would have to accept that deal if the EU were agreeable, then you could send someone even as crap as Boris to the EU with a take it or leave it offer. If the EU were to accept the deal, then that would be that. If the EU were to reject the deal, then we would then leave without a deal.

Leaving without a deal would of course be very bad for the UK, the EU, the US, China, and most other countries, because there would be a knock on affect. But in this scenario, leaving without a deal would be up to the EU to decide, so I'd expect them to take the deal.

I think I would disagree on a Switzerland type deal as I think a Customs Union deal would be simpler all round (particularly with regards to NI) and far more beneficial economically to Britain. And I do believe a 'Soft Brexit' is still a possibility, just not sure how either would get through parliament currently.

But I agree with every word on Johnson

 

[Nobby]

Let's just say for one moment, it doesn't happen and we bow to our Euromasters ad perpetuum.The evident frustration and anger with Leavers is not likely to simply dissipate overnight, and if anything will be augmented. Political parties with no place in a settled, calm post-Brexit will find support in a splintered society alas. On a day when Carney confounds all of the monetary experts on NSC, I just find it all a little bewildering.

https://news.sky.com/story/bank-no-deal-brexit-not-as-bad-as-we-predicted-11802146

Well I suppose you will find it all a little bewildering, if you think that article confounds all the NSC monetary experts

 

[Is it PotG?]

Well I suppose you will find it all a little bewildering, if you think that article confounds all the NSC monetary experts

Well played.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

MP's voting in Parliament are not exercising their "democratic right", that is exercised when people vote in an election.

When MP's vote they are fulfilling their democratic duty. To represent the people who sent them there to represent them.

As well as your fundamental failure to understand the responsibilities with which an MP is charged, you also continually ignore that they represent NOT just 'the people who sent them there' by voting for them, but in fact ALL constituents, regardless of their voting history.

 

[Chicken Run]

I'm not the one suggesting Fascism and Communism are polar opposites.

Nor am I you annoying little man, keep your large beak out of other people’s conversations, if I wanted you involved I wouldn’t have replied and quoted to him only now would I, and that’s rhetorical so don’t bother coming back with one of your snaky responses!

 

[Nobby]

Not a huge fan of his but good point from Farage on BBC Breakfast, the project fear lot talk of huge fuel shortages at the petrol pumps after a No Deal Brexit, but none of that fuel comes from the EU, so how will there be shortages?

Lol

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Britain should have a soft Brexit, with a deal like Switzerland. There should be no border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
It doesn't.

Pretty to easy for Switzerland to have any sort of border it wants, given you have to traverse Mordor to get in and out. Pretty easy to manage imports and exports on it's road. It's a bit different in Ireland.

Also, whereas Switzerland is a secretive and extremely well ordered, rich, finance-based state, Ulster and Eire have a large proportion of poor people, farmers, and a historical proclivity for criminality, gun running, moonshine and religious bigotry. At present the latter states are both in the EU tent and we have been enjoying the benefits of the peace process....maybe we could leave the EU and leave the border as it is and nothing would change....that would be nice if possible, but if there are hitches it could all turn very nasty very quickly. Smuggling contraband and people into the UK via Ulster could easily become a thing. I'm tempted to buy shares it it, actually.

Edit I see that others such as [MENTION=435]Stat Brother[/MENTION] have illustrated my border point above. You can't just travel in and out of Switzerland in a big lorry full of contraband. When we leave the EU we will have a hard border, by definition. That means a hard border in Ireland is unavoidable.

 

[Dave the OAP]

. Ha ha ha

 

[WATFORD zero]

Nor am I you annoying little man, keep your large beak out of other people’s conversations, if I wanted you involved I wouldn’t have replied and quoted to him only now would I, and that’s rhetorical so don’t bother coming back with one of your snaky responses!

I really wouldn't want to butt in but, do you think that if you are trying to have a private conversation with someone and don't want others commenting, an open forum may not be the best place to conduct it ?

Just trying to help

 

[Triggaaar]

Also, whereas Switzerland is a secretive and extremely well ordered, rich, finance-based state, Ulster and Eire have a large proportion of poor people, farmers, and a historical proclivity for criminality, gun running, moonshine and religious bigotry. At present the latter states are both in the EU tent and we have been enjoying the benefits of the peace process....maybe we could leave the EU and leave the border as it is and nothing would change....that would be nice if possible, but if there are hitches it could all turn very nasty very quickly. Smuggling contraband and people into the UK via Ulster could easily become a thing. I'm tempted to buy shares it it, actually.

We currently have a free movement of goods and people between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That would need to remain as is. Moving things between one and the other wouldn't be smuggling, it would be as legal as it is now.

When we leave the EU we will have a hard border, by definition.

That doesn't make sense. You can match the EU laws if you're not in the EU.

 

[Triggaaar]

I think I would disagree on a Switzerland type deal as I think a Customs Union deal would be simpler all round (particularly with regards to NI) and far more beneficial economically to Britain.

Yes, you're probably right.

 

[Klaas]

I bet you can't or won't answer this - but what should happen with regard to Brexit and the Northern Irish border? To me, this is the only thing that actually matter. If the country wants a hard Brexit, fine, but that simply cannot be allowed to happen in Northern Ireland.

Do you think the whole UK should leave regardless? Do you think GB should leave but NI should stay in the EU? Do you think we shouldn't have held the referendum before that question was considered? Genuinely interested, because for me that is the real crux of the issue.

I'll eat my own fingers if bashldir actually replies to this.

 

[Triggaaar]

Paddy Power odds:
To leave EU in 2019
No 1/2
Yes 6/4

Second Ref before end 2019
No 1/100
Yes 12/1

No deal Brexit in 2019
No - 1/5
Yes 3/1

Result of 2nd Referendum
Remain 2/1
Leave 5/1

Article 50 to be revoked before end 2020
No 4/11
Yes 2/1

KFC to close chicken outlets due to running out of chicken 11/4

Queen to move to Ireland 150/1

Thanks for all that, much appreciated So, unless I missed it, there's no version of actually leaving that's odds on. And also no version of permanently remaining that's odds on. So what they do think is likely, is that we'll carry on as we are, doing **** all.

 

[CHAPPERS]

As well as your fundamental failure to understand the responsibilities with which an MP is charged, you also continually ignore that they represent NOT just 'the people who sent them there' by voting for them, but in fact ALL constituents, regardless of their voting history.

It’s fascinating how many people don’t understand this, or choose to ignore it.