[Albion] Ben Diaz.

[RoversGoingUp]

All I know is that Ben Brereton was shite but Ben Brereton Diaz looks half decent.

The thing is, he'll cost £25m with Blackburn in 4th place so I'm not convinced our recruitment team will decide that is money worth spending.

I reckon we are more likely to ride this season out with what we've got and target a.striker from somewhere like Portugal or Belgium. It'll be a risk whoever we sign, but I suspect a talisman at a Championship top six side is going to be too expensive a risk.

Yeah that's exactly how it feels, although he did up his game a bit last season compared to others. But previously most fans thought he was a waste of the money we spent. Ever since his Chile adventure, he seems a completely different player. That Real Football Stories youtube video explains the whole thing well. Is it enough though? He's obviously a confidence player then, as before he had none and was shit, but now he gets a few goals for Chile and has ridden the wave back into the Championship with his confidence sky-high. Does this mean he could revert back to type if he doesn't hit the ground running with you?

I don't know, if he got 20+ two seasons in a row, it might make more sense for you but then again, by that time another club might have taken the plunge.

 

[b.w.2.]

I would hazard a guess that the club will not be rushing in to any old deal or the wrong deal just for the sake of getting hold of someone who could be described as a striker because you use the word “urgent”.

I suspect you are correct. But it is not my use of the word urgent that should be driving them to splash the cash on a striker; rather, it just makes sense.


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[Swansman]

Yeah, just think if you were thinking of spending the reported 25 mil it will take to get him, you could get someone more established at that level. We have an extra year option on him which we will trigger so he's not gonna be out of contract for a while yet.

You really dont get anything "established" for £25m unless they are old/injury prone/*****. What you can get is a good Championship striker who could develop into a good PL striker and that is generally a Brighton way of doing things.

Would be surprised to see Blackburn letting him go in January when they have their best chance in a lot of years to get promoted.

 

[Springal]

Is there ever any 'Championship top scorer' that really makes an impression in the PL? Even the great Glenn Murray barely broke into double figures, Ivan Toney looks to be struggling, especially if you take out penalties, Maupay does OK, Mitrovich failed multiple times.

Doesn't strike me as a good recruitment strategy

 

[maltaseagull]

Webster was £22m a couple of years ago (maybe 25% extra for english tax) from the championship just as a bench mark for van hecke.


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I thought that Van Hecke has to go to Leeds to learn how to be a top CB?

 

[pasty]

Is there ever any 'Championship top scorer' that really makes an impression in the PL? Even the great Glenn Murray barely broke into double figures, Ivan Toney looks to be struggling, especially if you take out penalties, Maupay does OK, Mitrovich failed multiple times.

Doesn't strike me as a good recruitment strategy

Teemu Pukki being a classic example with Norwich

Season 18/19 in Championship: 29 goals in 43 matches
Season 19/20 in PL: 11 goals in 36 matches
Season 20/21 in Championship: 26 goals in 41 matches
Season 21/22 in PL: 5 goals in 18 matches

Better than 1 in 2 in Championship, less than 1 in 3 in PL

 

[Pavilionaire]

Blackburn would be absolutely mad to sell Brereton-Diaz in January.

They are losing £20 million a season and have c. £150million shareholder's deficit. The only way out of that black hole is Premier League football and he is the man that could take them there.

If they hold on to him but don't get promoted them they sell him for c. £18m - £20m in the summer. Effectively, they're gambling a decrease in value of c. £5m - £7m against a £160m windfall that would fix their finances. The bookies have them at 3-1 to get promoted. No-brainer - you hang on to him until the summer.

 

[Springal]

If they hold on to him but don't get promoted them they sell him for c. £18m - £20m in the summer. Effectively, they're gambling a decrease in value of c. £5m - £7m against a £160m windfall that would fix their finances. The bookies have them at 3-1 to get promoted. No-brainer - you hang on to him until the summer.

I do agree with you on no way Blackburn sell in January - but depending on what papers you read - his contract is up in the summer OR there might be some kind of extension clause for 1 year in it

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

I do agree with you on no way Blackburn sell in January - but depending on what papers you read - his contract is up in the summer OR there might be some kind of extension clause for 1 year in it

Contract expires at the end of this season with a one year clause exercisable by Blackburn (https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/transfer-news/blackburn-rovers-brereton-diaz-brighton-22432590).

There are some great stats around about strikers in hot streaks. They almost never manage to do it in the following season (sorry, can't find the source I'm thinking of). He's never done this before, and stats suggest is unlikely to do it again next season. I don't think I'd splash the cash on him In Jan or at the end of the season.

My guess is that Uncle Tony has some big plans for this window which we'll only get to know about if he can pull it off. And that won't be Ben Brereton Diaz.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Teemu Pukki being a classic example with Norwich

Season 18/19 in Championship: 29 goals in 43 matches
Season 19/20 in PL: 11 goals in 36 matches
Season 20/21 in Championship: 26 goals in 41 matches
Season 21/22 in PL: 5 goals in 18 matches

Better than 1 in 2 in Championship, less than 1 in 3 in PL

If you look at Ivan Toney he has 4 goals and 2 assists in 16 Premier League matches, so only 1 in 4 - pretty ordinary.

However, in those 5 matches where he has been involved in a goal they haven't lost and have taken 9 of their 20 points. He is on course for 9 goals and 5 assists, and if he does that Brentford will have a decent chance of staying up.

So, he could help a team survive, although whether he is good enough to help a team achieve Top 10 status or better - like an Ings or Watkins - remains to be seen.

 

[DarrenFreemansPerm]

Is there ever any 'Championship top scorer' that really makes an impression in the PL? Even the great Glenn Murray barely broke into double figures, Ivan Toney looks to be struggling, especially if you take out penalties, Maupay does OK, Mitrovich failed multiple times.

Doesn't strike me as a good recruitment strategy

To be fair to Murray in the 2 full seasons that he played in the PL for us he scored 12 and 13 goals.

 

[Change at Barnham]

Adam Armstrong was another successful Championship striker that lots of different clubs fans were wanting, but he hasn't done much at Southampton.
Whereas Jared Bowen is flying high at West Ham.

 

[Springal]

Adam Armstrong was another successful Championship striker that lots of different clubs fans were wanting, but he hasn't done much at Southampton.
Whereas Jared Bowen is flying high at West Ham.

Bowen not really out and out striker. 3 PL goals, 9 assists is good though. Also amusing to read the Bowen thread on here to see the usual suspects declaring him useless etc

My point is though - we already have a £20M Championship striker in Maupay - I suspect the club will be looking at the 'next level' or better value overseas than these kind of obvious players

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Is there ever any 'Championship top scorer' that really makes an impression in the PL? Even the great Glenn Murray barely broke into double figures, Ivan Toney looks to be struggling, especially if you take out penalties, Maupay does OK, Mitrovich failed multiple times.

Doesn't strike me as a good recruitment strategy

Depends on how you frame 'makes an impression in the PL' - because really there have arguably been just 40 or so strikers that have made a major PL impression in the 30 years that it has been running. But I looked at the top 75 forwards, who have scored 56 goals or more. Several of these are certainly not prolific, just have longevity

Of these 75, just 17 scored significant championship goals before making it in the premier league:

11. Teddy Sheringham
13. Jamie Vardy
16. Robbie Keane
19. Ian Wright
21. Dion Dublin
23. Darren Bent
24. Peter Crouch
29. Yakubu
32. Kevin Phillips
44. Louis Saha
47. Craig Bellamy
55. Brian Deane
64. Dean Holdsworth (from the third division)
65. Stan Collymore
66. Callum Wilson
67. Peter Beardsley
69. Danny Ings

Of these 17 only 7, Sheringham, Keane, Dublin, Bent, Crouch, Bellamy and Holdsworth were sold into the premier league, all the others achieved promotion with their championship club. Most were quite a long time ago, the last significant signing of a championship striker by a premier league club following this metric was Darren Bent in 2005.

Bent scored 106 premier league goals - but in the 16 years since Bent's signing the best signings of championship strikers by PL clubs are Shane Long with 55 goals, but never more than 10 in a single season; Josh King with 53, who never scored more than 2 in a championship season (!), Chris Wood (50), Jay Rodriguez (42) and Dwight Gayle (26).

Perhaps surprisingly, in sixth place on the list of 'Striker with most Premier League Goals who was signed by a Premier League Club direct from the Championship since 2005' is our own Neal Maupay (25), with a better goals per game record than all bar Wood and who is the same age now as Wood was when he made his PL bow with Burnley.

So anyway, your point is certainly correct, and yet we may have got one of the best ever in Maupay.

 

[Barham's tash]

Depends on how you frame 'makes an impression in the PL' - because really there have arguably been just 40 or so strikers that have made a major PL impression in the 30 years that it has been running. But I looked at the top 75 forwards, who have scored 56 goals or more. Several of these are certainly not prolific, just have longevity

Of these 75, just 17 scored significant championship goals before making it in the premier league:

11. Teddy Sheringham
13. Jamie Vardy
16. Robbie Keane
19. Ian Wright
21. Dion Dublin
23. Darren Bent
24. Peter Crouch
29. Yakubu
32. Kevin Phillips
44. Louis Saha
47. Craig Bellamy
55. Brian Deane
64. Dean Holdsworth (from the third division)
65. Stan Collymore
66. Callum Wilson
67. Peter Beardsley
69. Danny Ings

Of these 17 only 7, Sheringham, Keane, Dublin, Bent, Crouch, Bellamy and Holdsworth were sold into the premier league, all the others achieved promotion with their championship club. Most were quite a long time ago, the last significant signing of a championship striker by a premier league club following this metric was Darren Bent in 2005.

Bent scored 106 premier league goals - but in the 16 years since Bent's signing the best signings of championship strikers by PL clubs are Shane Long with 55 goals, but never more than 10 in a single season; Josh King with 53, who never scored more than 2 in a championship season (!), Chris Wood (50), Jay Rodriguez (42) and Dwight Gayle (26).

Perhaps surprisingly, in sixth place on the list of 'Striker with most Premier League Goals who was signed by a Premier League Club direct from the Championship since 2005' is our own Neal Maupay (25), with a better goals per game record than all bar Wood and who is the same age now as Wood was when he made his PL bow with Burnley.

So anyway, your point is certainly correct, and yet we may have got one of the best ever in Maupay.

What a thunderingly good post. Factual, accurate and well researched.

Of course there are always exceptions to the rule and BB-D might be that person but is he worth a £25m punt? Who knows.

 

[drew]

If we did buy him I suspect it would be on the basis he stays with them until the summer. Club tend to look to the future rather than knee jerk purchases.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Depends on how you frame 'makes an impression in the PL' - because really there have arguably been just 40 or so strikers that have made a major PL impression in the 30 years that it has been running. But I looked at the top 75 forwards, who have scored 56 goals or more. Several of these are certainly not prolific, just have longevity

Of these 75, just 17 scored significant championship goals before making it in the premier league:

11. Teddy Sheringham
13. Jamie Vardy
16. Robbie Keane
19. Ian Wright
21. Dion Dublin
23. Darren Bent
24. Peter Crouch
29. Yakubu
32. Kevin Phillips
44. Louis Saha
47. Craig Bellamy
55. Brian Deane
64. Dean Holdsworth (from the third division)
65. Stan Collymore
66. Callum Wilson
67. Peter Beardsley
69. Danny Ings

Of these 17 only 7, Sheringham, Keane, Dublin, Bent, Crouch, Bellamy and Holdsworth were sold into the premier league, all the others achieved promotion with their championship club. Most were quite a long time ago, the last significant signing of a championship striker by a premier league club following this metric was Darren Bent in 2005.

Bent scored 106 premier league goals - but in the 16 years since Bent's signing the best signings of championship strikers by PL clubs are Shane Long with 55 goals, but never more than 10 in a single season; Josh King with 53, who never scored more than 2 in a championship season (!), Chris Wood (50), Jay Rodriguez (42) and Dwight Gayle (26).

Perhaps surprisingly, in sixth place on the list of 'Striker with most Premier League Goals who was signed by a Premier League Club direct from the Championship since 2005' is our own Neal Maupay (25), with a better goals per game record than all bar Wood and who is the same age now as Wood was when he made his PL bow with Burnley.

So anyway, your point is certainly correct, and yet we may have got one of the best ever in Maupay.

Thumbs up doesn't seem adequate recognition for this post. So I tip my hat to you sir!

 

[um bongo molongo]

If we did buy him I suspect it would be on the basis he stays with them until the summer. Club tend to look to the future rather than knee jerk purchases.

Exactly the point I was going to make. Signing him now and loaning him back for 6 months may suit all concerned: we get a better fee than would otherwise be the case, and they get a guaranteed sale to finance the debt without derailing their promotion bid. The one reason I have some sense there may be something in it is that the players we’re rumoured to be interested in (Nunez, Rodriguez, now this guy) all seem ‘of a type’ in that none is an out and out #9, and all can play in different positions across the front line.

 

[Swansman]

Depends on how you frame 'makes an impression in the PL' - because really there have arguably been just 40 or so strikers that have made a major PL impression in the 30 years that it has been running. But I looked at the top 75 forwards, who have scored 56 goals or more. Several of these are certainly not prolific, just have longevity

Of these 75, just 17 scored significant championship goals before making it in the premier league:

11. Teddy Sheringham
13. Jamie Vardy
16. Robbie Keane
19. Ian Wright
21. Dion Dublin
23. Darren Bent
24. Peter Crouch
29. Yakubu
32. Kevin Phillips
44. Louis Saha
47. Craig Bellamy
55. Brian Deane
64. Dean Holdsworth (from the third division)
65. Stan Collymore
66. Callum Wilson
67. Peter Beardsley
69. Danny Ings

Of these 17 only 7, Sheringham, Keane, Dublin, Bent, Crouch, Bellamy and Holdsworth were sold into the premier league, all the others achieved promotion with their championship club. Most were quite a long time ago, the last significant signing of a championship striker by a premier league club following this metric was Darren Bent in 2005.

Bent scored 106 premier league goals - but in the 16 years since Bent's signing the best signings of championship strikers by PL clubs are Shane Long with 55 goals, but never more than 10 in a single season; Josh King with 53, who never scored more than 2 in a championship season (!), Chris Wood (50), Jay Rodriguez (42) and Dwight Gayle (26).

Perhaps surprisingly, in sixth place on the list of 'Striker with most Premier League Goals who was signed by a Premier League Club direct from the Championship since 2005' is our own Neal Maupay (25), with a better goals per game record than all bar Wood and who is the same age now as Wood was when he made his PL bow with Burnley.

So anyway, your point is certainly correct, and yet we may have got one of the best ever in Maupay.

Good post though I think we'll see more players going through Championship to perform well in the PL in the future. Before covid hit (Championship is probably the most affected league in Europe) it was a top 10 league in the world thanks to a massive increase in quality (and de-Englification, with more foreign influence making it more similar in style to PL) over the last ten years.

 

[Surf's Up]

Big piece in the Sunday Times about BD today - probably put another £10m on his price.
- "From Championship toiler to red-hot Chile star, the rise of Ben Brereton Diaz was the story of 2021"!!!