[Politics] Tory voters- where do you go from here?

[Guinness Boy]

The election of the new leader looks to me like the start of that string of leaders they had post-Major -- William Hague, IDS, Michael Howerd. None of them seemed PM material, Then Cameron came along and their fortunes improved. The current candidates have that same not-PM-types feel about them. If so, it's good news for Labour, in spite of their current travails.

The biggest current challenge for the Tories is what to do about Reform. Incidentally, this is also a challenge for Labour. Remember in 2015, UKIP had a major impact across many Labour constituencies, especially in the north. Reform is similar to UKIP in their disruptiveness. But in the short term at least, the Tories are more susceptible as we saw in this year's election. How they deal with that, who knows? I can't see an amalgamation and I can't see any electoral deal as happened in 2019.

It's possible I suppose that Reform will get even more powerful and become the default party of the right. In other words, this may actually be the beginning of the end of the Tories. I hope this doesn't happen, but if the Tories remain unpopular and if Labour continue their mis-steps, I guess that leaves a channel down the middle for the emergence of not just Reform but also the LibDems.

Politics is fascinating. If we have this discussion in 12 months time (as we surely will) I suspect the landscape will have changed again. "Events. dear boy, events" makes any prediction almost impossible.

The change in voting patterns compared to location and demographic always fascinates me.

When I was growing up the South and South East were solidly Tory and no red could get anywhere near it. But anything northern and working class was solidly Labour.

Now Labour have to be worried about those same seats being taken by Reform, whereas the Tories are under pressure all over the south from Remain voting Labour and Lib Dems.

Meanwhile, the Scots who never used to vote Tory will neither vote Tory, nor Reform, despite some similar demographics in some towns to the north of England.

 

[Machiavelli]

The election of the new leader looks to me like the start of that string of leaders they had post-Major -- William Hague, IDS, Michael Howerd. None of them seemed PM material, Then Cameron came along and their fortunes improved. The current candidates have that same not-PM-types feel about them. If so, it's good news for Labour, in spite of their current travails.

The biggest current challenge for the Tories is what to do about Reform. Incidentally, this is also a challenge for Labour. Remember in 2015, UKIP had a major impact across many Labour constituencies, especially in the north. Reform is similar to UKIP in their disruptiveness. But in the short term at least, the Tories are more susceptible as we saw in this year's election. How they deal with that, who knows? I can't see an amalgamation and I can't see any electoral deal as happened in 2019.

It's possible I suppose that Reform will get even more powerful and become the default party of the right. In other words, this may actually be the beginning of the end of the Tories. I hope this doesn't happen, but if the Tories remain unpopular and if Labour continue their mis-steps, I guess that leaves a channel down the middle for the emergence of not just Reform but also the LibDems.

Politics is fascinating. If we have this discussion in 12 months time (as we surely will) I suspect the landscape will have changed again. "Events. dear boy, events" makes any prediction almost impossible.

FWIW, the Tories probably ought to focus more on the Lib Dems and potentially Labour, more than Reform. I don't see Reform replacing the Tories on the right. Reform are hated by a considerable section of the population who'd never vote for them whereas although the Tories are at a particularly low point currently (potentially exacerbated by this news), this will pass.

The way I'll put what you're grappling with is that essentially there's a schism in the right which has been absent for centuries but has been creeping up in the last decade or two. This had happened to the left much earlier and much more deeply. The result is that you have increasingly bizarre election results, because the electoral system is designed to have two strong parties nominally at least of the left and right. UK politics has moved on from that. Beyond more radical shifts (which I'm not adverse to, but I suspect you and the majority will be), the only solution to this is PR which will return election results far more representative of the views of the public. We have a pluralist politics, but a two-party electoral system.

On this, the 2024 GE had the second lowest turnout for centuries at under 60%. Labour ended up with two-thirds of the seats off the back of one-third of those that turned out to vote (which is 20% of the electorate and the electorate itself is far short of the adult population via exclusions). This explains the shallow support for Labour and difficulties of governing. They might be able to mask this throughout this parliament due to their parliamentary predominance, but there's only a large minority that actually supports them and much of this is very shallow support.

 

[Professor Plum]

FWIW, the Tories probably ought to focus more on the Lib Dems and potentially Labour, more than Reform. I don't see Reform replacing the Tories on the right. Reform are hated by a considerable section of the population who'd never vote for them whereas although the Tories are at a particularly low point currently (potentially exacerbated by this news), this will pass.

The way I'll put what you're grappling with is that essentially there's a schism in the right which has been absent for centuries but has been creeping up in the last decade or two. This had happened to the left much earlier and much more deeply. The result is that you have increasingly bizarre election results, because the electoral system is designed to have two strong parties nominally at least of the left and right. UK politics has moved on from that. Beyond more radical shifts (which I'm not adverse to, but I suspect you and the majority will be), the only solution to this is PR which will return election results far more representative of the views of the public. We have a pluralist politics, but a two-party electoral system.

On this, the 2024 GE had the second lowest turnout for centuries at under 60%. Labour ended up with two-thirds of the seats off the back of one-third of those that turned out to vote (which is 20% of the electorate and the electorate itself is far short of the adult population via exclusions). This explains the shallow support for Labour and difficulties of governing. They might be able to mask this throughout this parliament due to their parliamentary predominance, but there's only a large minority that actually supports them and much of this is very shallow support.

I'm a massive advocate of some form of PR. FPTP is a terrible betrayal of democratic values, as seen in this year's general election.

If 20% of the population are revolutionary communists and 20% are fascists, then I think we should have the same proportion of MPs representing those 40%. I don't share the politics of either of these groups but if you believe in representative democracy, as I do, you sometimes have to bite your lip and accept that not everyone agrees with you.

The reason I think Reform are the Tories' biggest threat is that they occupy overlapping ground, as we saw in the 2024 election. If Reform didn't exist, Labout would still have won due to the massive abstentions of traditional Tories but they;d have had far fewer seats. There were loads of constituencies where Reform and the Tory votes together were greater than the victor's total.

 

[Professor Plum]

The change in voting patterns compared to location and demographic always fascinates me.

When I was growing up the South and South East were solidly Tory and no red could get anywhere near it. But anything northern and working class was solidly Labour.

Now Labour have to be worried about those same seats being taken by Reform, whereas the Tories are under pressure all over the south from Remain voting Labour and Lib Dems.

Meanwhile, the Scots who never used to vote Tory will neither vote Tory, nor Reform, despite some similar demographics in some towns to the north of England.

Agreed, it's been an amazing transformation. Applies to class as well as location. Nowadays, it seems more likely that the average middle class, middle income person will vote Labour, despite being historically Tory fodder. And your average working class bloke more likely to vote Tory or Reform.

 

[lawros left foot]

What a choice.

A homophobic bigot or a corrupt chancer.

‘‘Twas ever thus” in the modern day Tory Party.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

FWIW, the Tories probably ought to focus more on the Lib Dems and potentially Labour, more than Reform. I don't see Reform replacing the Tories on the right. Reform are hated by a considerable section of the population who'd never vote for them whereas although the Tories are at a particularly low point currently (potentially exacerbated by this news), this will pass.

The way I'll put what you're grappling with is that essentially there's a schism in the right which has been absent for centuries but has been creeping up in the last decade or two. This had happened to the left much earlier and much more deeply. The result is that you have increasingly bizarre election results, because the electoral system is designed to have two strong parties nominally at least of the left and right. UK politics has moved on from that. Beyond more radical shifts (which I'm not adverse to, but I suspect you and the majority will be), the only solution to this is PR which will return election results far more representative of the views of the public. We have a pluralist politics, but a two-party electoral system.

On this, the 2024 GE had the second lowest turnout for centuries at under 60%. Labour ended up with two-thirds of the seats off the back of one-third of those that turned out to vote (which is 20% of the electorate and the electorate itself is far short of the adult population via exclusions). This explains the shallow support for Labour and difficulties of governing. They might be able to mask this throughout this parliament due to their parliamentary predominance, but there's only a large minority that actually supports them and much of this is very shallow support.

In terms of % of those eligible to vote, maybe. But women didn't get the vote till 1918, and only women over the age of 30, with additional property caveats.

Turnout of those eligible was flat till 2001, when the labour and tory candidates were both very poor (and the fringe parties were dull). And life was pretty decent for most.

After that turnout has risen steadily, dipping again only recently, with Johnson supreme, and in the last GE where we had execrable Tories, a very dull labour leader, and a national acceptance that we have left the EU and will have to lump it, with very little hope on offer (once you take 'we will sink the boats' out of the dismal equation.

UK politics isn't broken. It has simply failed to keep up with the modern world. It will catch up eventually.

 

[Lenny Rider]

In terms of % of those eligible to vote, maybe. But women didn't get the vote till 1918, and only women over the age of 30, with additional property caveats.

Turnout of those eligible was flat till 2001, when the labout and tory candidates were both very poor (and the fringe parties were dull). And life was pretty decent for most.

After that turnout has risen steadily, dipping again only recently, with Johnson supreme, and in the last GE where we had execrable Tories, a very dull labour leader, and a national acceptance that we have left the EU and will have to lump it, with very little hope on offer (once you take 'we will sink the boats' out of the dismal equation.

UK politics isn't broken. It has simply failed to keep up with the modern world. It will catch up eventually.

View attachment 190014

Amazing stats old boy when you look into them.

Surprised to see that despite defeating Hitler and winning the battle for democracy less than 75% of the electorate voted In the subsequent GE that voted Churchill out.

And the first one I can really remember, in 1974 when Heath went to the country over the Unions asking “Who governs Britain?”, nearly 80% turnout, a figure not surpassed in 50 years, he won the popular vote, but under FPTP voting system lost his parliamentary majority.

Clearly our voting system has been flawed for decades.

 

[stewart12]

Looks like they're going with the "lunge to the right" option then

 

[schmunk]

Wow indeed. I didn't see that coming. Yesterday the talk was all about Cleverly being the darling of the MPs. Clearly not the case.

So Badenoch and Jenrick will be put to party members to vote on. Not being a Tory member or knowing any (that I'm aware of), I have no inkling how this will go but I've seen articles in the Telegraph claiming that Badenoch is popular among the rank and file.

It's got to be a tap-in for Bobby J, surely?

The Tory faithful LOVE BadEnoch's fascist tendencies, but she is perhaps just a tad too, ahem..., exotic for the shires...

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I'm a massive advocate of some form of PR. FPTP is a terrible betrayal of democratic values, as seen in this year's general election.

If 20% of the population are revolutionary communists and 20% are fascists, then I think we should have the same proportion of MPs representing those 40%. I don't share the politics of either of these groups but if you believe in representative democracy, as I do, you sometimes have to bite your lip and accept that not everyone agrees with you.

The reason I think Reform are the Tories' biggest threat is that they occupy overlapping ground, as we saw in the 2024 election. If Reform didn't exist, Labout would still have won due to the massive abstentions of traditional Tories but they;d have had far more seats. There were loads of constituencies where Reform and the Tory votes together were greater than the victor's total.

Is this because the party you voted for didn't win?

I would not be giving myself a warm hug if the Farage business had retured 50 seats in proportion to their vote share nationally in the last GE.

FPTP keeps the ****s out, by and large. Long may it continue.

 

[lawros left foot]

What a choice.

A homophobic bigot or a corrupt chancer.

‘‘Twas ever thus” in the modern day Tory Party.

Actually, just read my own post again, is this why Johnson was so popular with the Tory Party members, he was an amalgamation of both these traditional Tory values.

 

[jcdenton08]

I’m angry with Labour for enabling the f***ing Tories to regroup. These should be Labour’s salad days and they’re shitting the bed

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Looks like they're going with the "lunge to the right" option then

A lot of the membership is barking-mad pensioner right wing.

Just as much of the labour membership is middle aged pen pushers with lower second class degrees from provincial 'universities', still in love with Corbyn.

But.....they all have the right to select who they want as leader. They pay their money.

(Neither seem particularly bothered about winning a general election, however. That old 'no compromise with the electorate' thingy. Weirdos).

 

[Pevenseagull]

Looks like they're going with the "lunge to the right" option then

Yep, next 3 word slogan, 'Arbeit Macht Frei'

 

[kevo]

The Conservative Party as we know it now officially dead. With either two of the crazies left becoming the official leader of the opposition, a merger with Reform is surely on the cards. Farage is a step closer to being PM in five years' time - although surely the 'moderate' Tories will need to find a new home?

 

[jcdenton08]

The Conservative Party as we know it now officially dead. With either two of the crazies left becoming the official leader of the opposition, a merger with Reform is surely on the cards. Farage is a step closer to being PM in five years' time - although surely the 'moderate' Tories will need to find a new home?

Absolutely.

Where have the good Tories gone?

This is a shit show.

 

[Leekbrookgull]

Vote Sir Keir Starmer, a man you Can Trust.

 

[kevo]

Where have the good Tories gone?

Johnson got rid of most of the reasonably sensible ones.

 

[Professor Plum]

It's got to be a tap-in for Bobby J, surely?

The Tory faithful LOVE BadEnoch's fascist tendencies, but she is perhaps just a tad too, ahem..., exotic for the shires...

I know it's the age-old sterotype that Tory voters are racist and sexist but let's face ithe awkward truth -- they've had 3 women PMs, and more top female ministers than Labour. As for non-white ministers and shadows, the number seems significantly greater than other parties. And they have actually voted for a non-white man to lead the party and be PM. So a bit of reassessment is needed here. My understanding is that Badenoch is very popular among the members, An item I've just read in the Guardian says a poll by Conservative Home showed a 20% lead for her over Jenrick among the members (ie the people who will elect the leader).

 

[Is it PotG?]

Vote Sir Keir Starmer, a man you Can Trust.

The trust of the innocent is the liar's most useful tool - Stephen King