[Politics] Tory voters- where do you go from here?

[sparkie]

Lol.

The worst 2 loonies become the final 2 candidates. This time we won't be able to blame the Tory members as they have been given an abysmal choice.

It should ensure they lose again at the next election.

 

[Hugo Rune]

If only. Labour have got one unpopular policy out the way and only one and for the last two months it's the only policy that has been fixated on, broken up only by attention on freebies.
They've actually launched all sorts of policies (eg workplace reform, Great British Energy, CCS, prisons, Miliband's green transition, etc) but there's next to no discussion of these. These are popular for many, unpopular for others.
Their big set-piece will come at the end of the month, and I suspect that will garner considerable attention -- as it should.

Let me clarify, I mean the first year of office by the phrase ‘beginning of their term.’ There are lots more painful and unpopular choices to come, a populist government they are not.

I have no doubt they will recover in the polls but stories around records being broken for asylum deportations just aren’t getting into the media mainstream. You’d think a flag shagging GB news viewer would want to know all about record deportations but the Islamophobic billionaire owner who makes a massive loss in exchange for the influencing the political dial is not interested.

 

[Pevenseagull]

Hang on.....

It's taken over THREE MONTHS for the Tories to decide that, from their ranks, the two best options are these two ****s?

Jesus wept.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Their big set-piece will come at the end of the month, and I suspect that will garner considerable attention -- as it should.

That budget will be as popular as a turd in the bath when it comes. Don't get me wrong. There's little choice in the matter - there is no money and virtually nowhere to go with borrowing - but they will get absolutely "Kwartanged" over it.

I hope I'm wrong but everyone thinks we should spend more until they end up paying for it.

 

[dsr-burnley]

If only. Labour have got one unpopular policy out the way and only one and for the last two months it's the only policy that has been fixated on, broken up only by attention on freebies.
They've actually launched all sorts of policies (eg workplace reform, Great British Energy, CCS, prisons, Miliband's green transition, etc) but there's next to no discussion of these. These are popular for many, unpopular for others.
Their big set-piece will come at the end of the month, and I suspect that will garner considerable attention -- as it should.

There was quite a lot of discussion about freeing the prisoners at the time, and I don't think people's opinions of the policy have improved as time goes by - even though it's no longer on the front burner, so to speak. Workplace reform hasn't happened but (along with all the other anti-growth measures) the impact will be felt on the economy as time goes by, and will surely be noticeable within 5 years. Great British Energy - there's nothing to talk about. It's a cipher. Carbon capture and the green revolution won't be talked about much until they start having an effect. But when the power cuts do start, they will be talked about. People over 60 still remember the seventies when both parties in turned failed to keep the lights on, and it wasn't popular.

 

[Bozza]

He is weird in a way that would challenge Trump’s current stranglehold on that term.

There's a lot of weirdos out there.

 

[peterward]

Lol.

The worst 2 loonies become the final 2 candidates. This time we won't be able to blame the Tory members as they have been given an abysmal choice.

It should ensure they lose again at the next election.

I have to agree. Ditching more centrist and broader appealing Cleverley and going for 2 Reform lite right wingers has just hammered a few more nails in the conservative coffin.

A massive act of stupidity and self harm.

 

[Bozza]

If only. Labour have got one unpopular policy out the way and only one and for the last two months it's the only policy that has been fixated on, broken up only by attention on freebies.
They've actually launched all sorts of policies (eg workplace reform, Great British Energy, CCS, prisons, Miliband's green transition, etc) but there's next to no discussion of these. These are popular for many, unpopular for others.

All true.

Yet you suggested, elsewhere, that Sue Gray had done a good job. You've just illustrated exactly why she hadn't.

 

[Professor Plum]

The strategy of getting all the unpopular polices out the way at the beginning of their term is clearly working. Labour are unpopular now but no one is voting for them for almost 5 years. A week is a long time in politics yet alone half a decade. They have more than enough time to worry about the polls and get some upwards momentum.

Their missteps and pessimism is no “strategy”. It’s a total cock-up. This is Alastair Campbell’s view, not just mine. You’re right that the 4-5 years until the next election is a very long time. Who knows what will happen before then. But to be one percentage point ahead of the Tories in the polls, just 3 months into their administration was absolutely not part of their master plan.

As for Tories regrouping, I can’t understand what you mean? They’ve just kicked out the only man capable of beating Starmer leaving two utter ****wits who won’t have a chance in hell at the next election. Have no doubts, this is an excellent day for Labour.

An excellent day for Labour? According to a piece in the Guardian the other day, and plenty of readers’ comments, ‘Jimmy Dimly’ would be the dream leader of the Tories given his close association with Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. A lot must have happened overnight because he’s now been transformed into the one man who could have saved the Tories.

Apparently, Badenoch is the new dream Tory leader for Labour. Given the retrospective beatification of Cleverly, I’m inclined to reinterpret this as meaning that she’s the leader that they’re least keen on. She has some unsavoury views but she’s feisty. She also graduated in Computer Science then Law so has quite a logical, transactional sort of mindset which Sir Keir will find more challenging than Sunak, and certainly Johnson.

I don’t think it matters much. As I said earlier, it seems highly likely that the new leader will be a mere placeholder just as IDS, Hague etc were post-Major. I strongly suspect that the Tory leader at the next election will be someone we’ve never heard of, just like Cameron was quite anonymous before his election as leader.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Lol.

The worst 2 loonies become the final 2 candidates. This time we won't be able to blame the Tory members as they have given themselves an abysmal choice.

It should ensure they lose again at the next election.

There was quite a lot of discussion about freeing the prisoners at the time, and I don't think people's opinions of the policy have improved as time goes by - even though it's no longer on the front burner, so to speak. Workplace reform hasn't happened but (along with all the other anti-growth measures) the impact will be felt on the economy as time goes by, and will surely be noticeable within 5 years. Great British Energy - there's nothing to talk about. It's a cipher. Carbon capture and the green revolution won't be talked about much until they start having an effect. But when the power cuts do start, they will be talked about. People over 60 still remember the seventies when both parties in turned failed to keep the lights on, and it wasn't popular.

When are you expecting the power cuts to kick in? Would that be before or after we are invaded by Belgium, and have made Islam the state religion?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Their missteps and pessimism is no “strategy”. It’s a total cock-up. This is Alastair Campbell’s view, not just mine. You’re right that the 4-5 years until the next election is a very long time. Who knows what will happen before then. But to be one percentage point ahead of the Tories in the polls, just 3 months into their administration was absolutely not part of their master plan.

An excellent day for Labour? According to a piece in the Guardian the other day, and plenty of readers’ comments, ‘Jimmy Dimly’ would be the dream leader of the Tories given his close association with Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. A lot must have happened overnight because he’s now been transformed into the one man who could have saved the Tories.

Apparently, Badenoch is the new dream Tory leader for Labour. Given the retrospective beatification of Cleverly, I’m inclined to reinterpret this as meaning that she’s the leader that they’re least keen on. She has some unsavoury views but she’s feisty. She also graduated in Computer Science then Law so has quite a logical, transactional sort of mindset which Sir Keir will find more challenging than Sunak, and certainly Johnson.

I don’t think it matters much. As I said earlier, it seems highly likely that the new leader will be a mere placeholder just as IDS, Hague etc were post-Major. I strongly suspect that the Tory leader at the next election will be someone we’ve never heard of, just like Cameron was quite anonymous before his election as leader.

New old labour may be annoying and dull (they are) but they have a long way to fall before anyone is going to launch an in-depth analysis of the shower in opposition.

The Tories still look like the mad lot who advocated sniffing bleach while wearing a paper bag over the head to cure Covid 3 years ago, and whose main policies are to repeal human rights legislation and bayonet dinghies.

Badenoch is interesting. But she's still a vile tory ****: "In 2018, Badenoch admitted that, a decade earlier, she had hacked into the website of Harriet Harman, who was then Deputy Leader of the Labour Party; Harman accepted Badenoch's apology, but the matter was reported to Action Fraud, the UK's cyber crime reporting centre"

 

[Professor Plum]

1. Had we had PR that wouldn't have helped. And it means you abused FPTP for nefarious reasons (with which I agree )

2. I don't own the franchise. All I said was that I like it. You don't. And indeed, it is up to the people if they want to change it. I'll wager 'they' don't.

Finally, if we had a referendum on PR, how would you like to see the voting rubric organized? Presumably not using FPTP.

(and presumably you consider that the 'in-out' referendum on EU membership was intrinsically undemocratic).

I didn’t "abuse" FPTP, unless there's some set of voting rules I’m unaware of, and that I unwittingly contravened. Without some form of PR, many of us are forced into tactical voting. The alternative, sadly followed by millions of would-be voters, is to stay at home on election day because their preferred party has no chance of winning.

Not sure what’s meant by 'owning the franchise'. But there may be a reason why of the 45 countries in Europe, the one solitary nation that doesn’t use some form of PR is the UK. And even within Britain, Scotland uses PR for its own devolved assembly. Not sure about Wales.

TBH, I’m not sure what "voting rubric" means. Do you mean what voting system should be used to gauge public opinion in a vote on a change to our electoral system? I’d favour a simple question — Would you like our electoral system to be changed to a form of proportional representation? Yes or No.

If the majority is Yes, then we convene a commission to shortlist the options. This can be done quickly as it’s been discussed to death over the years. I personally don’t think it’s necessary to ask people to vote again on the particular flavour of PR we should have. That’s too technical. It’s the big principle that’s under scrutiny, not the fine detail.

It's worth remembering that the vote at the Labour Party conference a couple of years back, to introduce some form of PR/STV, was simply ignored by Sir Keir and his colleagues. I found that scandalous.

(You’ve lost me on the Brexit referendum question. Regardless of whether we got the result we wanted, the voting system was wholly democratic from what I can see. Some people said it should have required a two thirds majority but even that, I’d have to say, is not really democratic. Suppose 65% had voted for Brexit — should the 35% be allowed to win the day? Not for me.)

 

[Pavilionaire]

This Tory leadership contest has been full of skullduggery. It couldn't have gone any better for Labour, or the Lib Dems.

Last night Cleverly was the clear frontrunner by 8 votes, now he lies face down with a knife in his back. I don't see any chance of the party uniting after this.

Plenty of One Nation Conservatives will feel very bitter at this outcome and - to me - the traditional Tory Party is now dead in the water.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

If only. Labour have got one unpopular policy out the way and only one and for the last two months it's the only policy that has been fixated on, broken up only by attention on freebies.
They've actually launched all sorts of policies (eg workplace reform, Great British Energy, CCS, prisons, Miliband's green transition, etc) but there's next to no discussion of these. These are popular for many, unpopular for others.
Their big set-piece will come at the end of the month, and I suspect that will garner considerable attention -- as it should.

Whats the “big set piece”?

 

[Chicken Run]

This Tory leadership contest has been full of skullduggery. It couldn't have gone any better for Labour, or the Lib Dems.

Last night Cleverly was the clear frontrunner by 8 votes, now he lies face down with a knife in his back. I don't see any chance of the party uniting after this.

Plenty of One Nation Conservatives will feel very bitter at this outcome and - to me - the traditional Tory Party is now dead in the water.

I recall similar being said when Labour chose Jeremy Corbyn

 

[Chicken Run]

Whats the “big set piece”?

Re joining the EU

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Would get my vote

Re joining the EU

 

[Robdinho]

The data I showed are the data. If you draw a line to show a steady decline from 1924 t0 2004 only three years are below the line. That's because there is no steady decline. There was an abrupt fall in 2001 as I stated. Interpolation between points is not legitimate with such data.

(I drew the line below by hand. It is still clear)

View attachment 190017

Come on Harry, you'd laugh at at school child for that interpretation of a graph!

You don't draw a trend line by taking the first and last value and drawing a line between them.

And the statement was that the decline began after the postwar period. You've started your line in 1924.

"You can prove anything with statistics" was never supposed to mean that you can just wilfully misinterprete them to fit your argument.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

I recall similar being said when Labour chose Jeremy Corbyn

Labour have moved a long way since shooting Jeremy Corbyn.
And there was plenty of evidence yesterday of despairing Tories - one MP saying they were receiving emails from constituents saying “what the hell have you done?” David Gauke, a prominent One Nation Tory reporting that he had rejoined the Tory Party (can’t remember specifically why he left it) and saying “that was a waste of £39!”

edit: he resigned as Justice Secretary and as a Tory in July 2019 over Johnson backing a no deal Brexit.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I don’t think it matters much. As I said earlier, it seems highly likely that the new leader will be a mere placeholder just as IDS, Hague etc were post-Major. I strongly suspect that the Tory leader at the next election will be someone we’ve never heard of, just like Cameron was quite anonymous before his election as leader.

Replacing Badenoch or the other twit without them losing a general election is a massive call.

I can’t see it myself.

Your next IDS or Hague will be along after the next election. Not before.