[Politics] Tory voters- where do you go from here?

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Amazing stats old boy when you look into them.

Surprised to see that despite defeating Hitler and winning the battle for democracy less than 75% of the electorate voted In the subsequent GE that voted Churchill out.

And the first one I can really remember, in 1974 when Heath went to the country over the Unions asking “Who governs Britain?”, nearly 80% turnout, a figure not surpassed in 50 years, he won the popular vote, but under FPTP voting system lost his parliamentary majority.

Clearly our voting system has been flawed for decades.

Well, I can't argue with your selection of facts, but I don't accept the inference.

I have always considered that the electorate elects governments it deserves.

They only way to change the outcome is to assign all the seats in proportion to total votes cast, using a national list, with voters ranking candidates in order of preference. And if we did that, more than half the electorate will still be pissed off because their favourite didn't win.

And note that nobody ever voted for a coalition in the UK. It isn't on the ballot. Coalitions exist around Europe basically because they do, and at the end of the day electorates around the world tend to either accept whatever system they get, or rebel (as Egypt did when the election didn't give them what they wanted).

As Marvin the Paranoid Android might have said: don't talk to me about the electorate. Here I am, an opinion the size of a planet (etc. etc.).

The English are phlegmatic. Evidence? Well, you think the system doesn't work and yet (as far as I am aware) you are doing absolutely nothing about it other than occasionally grumping on a football forum.

I hope you are well and cheerful, matey. It is what it is

 

[Machiavelli]

In terms of % of those eligible to vote, maybe. But women didn't get the vote till 1918, and only women over the age of 30, with additional property caveats.

Turnout of those eligible was flat till 2001, when the labour and tory candidates were both very poor (and the fringe parties were dull). And life was pretty decent for most.

After that turnout has risen steadily, dipping again only recently, with Johnson supreme, and in the last GE where we had execrable Tories, a very dull labour leader, and a national acceptance that we have left the EU and will have to lump it, with very little hope on offer (once you take 'we will sink the boats' out of the dismal equation.

UK politics isn't broken. It has simply failed to keep up with the modern world. It will catch up eventually.

View attachment 190014

I suspected that you might be along with a defence of the electoral system -- although this riposte is more of a nod towards a defence rather than anything robust.
I also know that stats is your game and not mine, but you've misread that spectacularly. Turnout reached its peak in the immediate postwar period, and its declined since then -- it really wasn't flat, as you claim and the graph depicts as much -- that decline is starker in the 21C. In 1951, 96% of the turnout was for the big two, in other words, over 80% of the electorate voted for them. In 2024, the combined vote for the Tories and Labour was about 36% of the electorate. That's stark.
I do agree with you that UK politics hasn't caught up with the modern world, but it's not the electorate (who have diversified, pluralised, etc) that are lagging, it's the electoral system.

 

[Professor Plum]

Is this because the party you voted for didn't win?

I would not be giving myself a warm hug if the Farage business had retured 50 seats in proportion to their vote share nationally in the last GE.

FPTP keeps the ****s out, by and large. Long may it continue.

I voted LibDem (in Eastbourne) to defeat the Tory.

Not sure about the 'warm hug' but if Reform's voteshare equated to 50 seats then yes, absolutely, they should have 50 seats. That's democracy. The fact that I don't like Farage doesn't come into it. It's not up to you or me what the parliamentary make up of seats should be, That's some Putinesque type of democracy. No, it's up to the people, like it or not.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Vote Sir Keir Starmer, a man you Can Trust.

I hadn't realized he's on the tory leadershit ballot.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I suspected that you might be along with a defence of the electoral system -- although this riposte is more of a nod towards a defence rather than anything robust.
I also know that stats is your game and not mine, but you've misread that spectacularly. Turnout reached its peak in the immediate postwar period, and its declined since then -- it really wasn't flat, as you claim and the graph depicts as much -- that decline is starker in the 21C. In 1951, 96% of the turnout was for the big two, in other words, over 80% of the electorate voted for them. In 2024, the combined vote for the Tories and Labour was about 36% of the electorate. That's stark.
I do agree with you that UK politics hasn't caught up with the modern world, but it's not the electorate (who have diversified, pluralised, etc) that are lagging, it's the electoral system.

The data I showed are the data. If you draw a line to show a steady decline from 1924 t0 2004 only three years are below the line. That's because there is no steady decline. There was an abrupt fall in 2001 as I stated. Interpolation between points is not legitimate with such data.

(I drew the line below by hand. It is still clear)

 

[vegster]

I hadn't realized he's on the tory leadershit ballot.

He's more of a traditional Tory than either of the two nut jobs left standing. Both are awful and whoever wins will struggle to keep what's left of the party together for 4 years.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I’m angry with Labour for enabling the f***ing Tories to regroup. These should be Labour’s salad days and they’re shitting the bed

The strategy of getting all the unpopular polices out the way at the beginning of their term is clearly working. Labour are unpopular now but no one is voting for them for almost 5 years. A week is a long time in politics yet alone half a decade. They have more than enough time to worry about the polls and get some upwards momentum.

As for Tories regrouping, I can’t understand what you mean? They’ve just kicked out the only man capable of beating Starmer leaving two utter ****wits who won’t have a chance in hell at the next election. Have no doubts, this is an excellent day for Labour.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I voted LibDem (in Eastbourne) to defeat the Tory.

Not sure about the 'warm hug' but if Reform's voteshare equated to 50 seats then yes, absolutely, they should have 50 seats. That's democracy. The fact that I don't like Farage doesn't come into it. It's not up to you or me what the parliamentary make up of seats should be, That's some Putinesque type of democracy. No, it's up to the people, like it or not.

1. Had we had PR that wouldn't have helped. And it means you abused FPTP for nefarious reasons (with which I agree )

2. I don't own the franchise. All I said was that I like it. You don't. And indeed, it is up to the people if they want to change it. I'll wager 'they' don't.

Finally, if we had a referendum on PR, how would you like to see the voting rubric organized? Presumably not using FPTP.

(and presumably you consider that the 'in-out' referendum on EU membership was intrinsically undemocratic).

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The strategy of getting all the unpopular polices out the way at the beginning of their term is clearly working. Labour are unpopular now but no one is voting for them for almost 5 years. A week is a long time in politics yet alone half a decade.

As for Tories regrouping, I can’t understand what you mean? They’ve just kicked out the only man capable of beating Starmer leaving two utter ****wits who won’t have a change in hell at the next election. Have no doubts, this is an excellent day for Labour.

Potty has given you a thumbs up for that.

Presumably he's fully buckled in on the Badenoc bus, or Jenrick jalopy, heading for the harbour of victory and preparing to steam fully ahead on a boat to nowhere, while demanding a general election every time Starmer annoys or disappoints someone.

The maturity and composure of your noisy tory, these days, is something wondrous to behold.

 

[Simster]

The strategy of getting all the unpopular polices out the way at the beginning of their term is clearly working. Labour are unpopular now but no one is voting for them for almost 5 years. A week is a long time in politics yet alone half a decade. They have more than enough time to worry about the polls and get some upwards momentum.

As for Tories regrouping, I can’t understand what you mean? They’ve just kicked out the only man capable of beating Starmer leaving two utter ****wits who won’t have a chance in hell at the next election. Have no doubts, this is an excellent day for Labour.

I wish I had the same faith as you do, but ultimately if Labour do too many controversial things, the will of GB News, Talk TV and the traditional print based media will convince the many simpletons in the electorate that either useless right wing loony Tory candidate are somehow a better PM option than SKS. And those simpletons will not look at the many benefits of the ECHR, a free at point of use NHS, or a neutral tax-funded BBC for very long - all institutions that these clueless headbangers will end up contemplating binning.

 

[Eeyore]

Amazing stats old boy when you look into them.

Surprised to see that despite defeating Hitler and winning the battle for democracy less than 75% of the electorate voted In the subsequent GE that voted Churchill out.

And the first one I can really remember, in 1974 when Heath went to the country over the Unions asking “Who governs Britain?”, nearly 80% turnout, a figure not surpassed in 50 years, he won the popular vote, but under FPTP voting system lost his parliamentary majority.

Clearly our voting system has been flawed for decades.

I think the 1950s was the last time there was a government which didn't have a majority of folk that voted against it (although the coalition of 2010 was more than 50%)

Not as bad as America where Clinton won the presidential vote and Trump got the gig.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Potty has given you a thumbs up for that.

Presumably he's fully buckled in on the Badenoc bus, or Jenrick jalopy, heading for the harbour of victory and preparing to steam fully ahead on a boat to nowhere, while demanding a general election ever time Starmer annoys or disappoints someone.

The maturity and composure of your noisy tory, these days, is something wondrous to behold.

He is weird in a way that would challenge Trump’s current stranglehold on that term.

 

[lawros left foot]

Vote Sir Keir Starmer, a man you Can Trust.

Compared to Jenrick, Starmer is a paragon of virtue.

His record as Housing Minister is abysmal and corrupt.

The Westferry Road development on the Isle of Dogs was actually admitted by Jenrick to be unlawful due to undue bias towards the developer and Tory donor Richard Desmond.
If allowed, this decision would have cost the Exchequer around £150 million.

His rather dubious decisions also includes the post Grenfell cladding scandal, the Holocaust Memorial planning fiasco, and a Tower block in Notting Hill.

His cavalier attitude to Covid restrictions that he himself promoted during televised Covid briefings, although not serious as such, tend to expose the character of the man.

 

[Blackadder]

Absolutely.

Where have the good Tories gone?

This is a shit show.

KBB (Killed By Brexit)

 

[kevo]

KBB (Killed By Brexit)

Killed By Boris

 

[kevo]

I wish I had the same faith as you do, but ultimately if Labour do too many controversial things, the will of GB News, Talk TV and the traditional print based media will convince the many simpletons in the electorate that either useless right wing loony Tory candidate are somehow a better PM option than SKS. And those simpletons will not look at the many benefits of the ECHR, a free at point of use NHS, or a neutral tax-funded BBC for very long - all institutions that these clueless headbangers will end up contemplating binning.

Ain't that the truth. My main fear is that Farage will become the PM in five years time. Don't say it won't happen.

 

[Machiavelli]

The data I showed are the data. If you draw a line to show a steady decline from 1924 t0 2004 only three years are below the line. That's because there is no steady decline. There was an abrupt fall in 2001 as I stated. Interpolation between points is not legitimate with such data.

(I drew the line below by hand. It is still clear)

View attachment 190017

The data is always the data. But you're using the wrong data to make the point you want to make, which is the superiority of FPTP. Find a graph that shows the % vote share of the big two parties, and that will clearly reinforce the points I'm making which is its in steep decline, that the electorate is far more plural in its party support, that the electoral system doesn't reflect this, and that -- as we're already experiencing (although this is as much to do with the ineptitude of Labour's comms in the past two months, not prior to that I hasten to add) -- it means that governing will prove actually really difficult for the current government and all future ones until the electoral system is more reflective of public opinion.

 

[Machiavelli]

The strategy of getting all the unpopular polices out the way at the beginning of their term is clearly working. Labour are unpopular now but no one is voting for them for almost 5 years. A week is a long time in politics yet alone half a decade. They have more than enough time to worry about the polls and get some upwards momentum.

As for Tories regrouping, I can’t understand what you mean? They’ve just kicked out the only man capable of beating Starmer leaving two utter ****wits who won’t have a chance in hell at the next election. Have no doubts, this is an excellent day for Labour.

If only. Labour have got one unpopular policy out the way and only one and for the last two months it's the only policy that has been fixated on, broken up only by attention on freebies.
They've actually launched all sorts of policies (eg workplace reform, Great British Energy, CCS, prisons, Miliband's green transition, etc) but there's next to no discussion of these. These are popular for many, unpopular for others.
Their big set-piece will come at the end of the month, and I suspect that will garner considerable attention -- as it should.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The data is always the data. But you're using the wrong data to make the point you want to make, which is the superiority of FPTP. Find a graph that shows the % vote share of the big two parties, and that will clearly reinforce the points I'm making which is its in steep decline, that the electorate is far more plural in its party support, that the electoral system doesn't reflect this, and that -- as we're already experiencing (although this is as much to do with the ineptitude of Labour's comms in the past two months, not prior to that I hasten to add) -- it means that governing will prove actually really difficult for the current government and all future ones until the electoral system is more reflective of public opinion.

That isn't what I am saying at all. The superiority of FPTP is that it keeps the extremists out.

The point of the graph is to show that democracy is not in steady decline. There are blips in turnout but even turnout is not necessarily a good measure of the health of a society.

When I lived in BC people were disinterested in politics and voting - because they lived untroubled comfortable lives.

Perhaps you consider the best democracy in the world is found in China, Russia and North Korea where voter turnout is 100% (sometimes 110%).

Oh, and governing may well prove hard for labour, but that will because of 'events': The state of the economy, internal dissent, and a successful public campaign by the Tories to persuade the electorate that Labour are shit. All of which are possible.

FPTP has given labour a big majority, not created a situation whereby intrinsically "governing will prove actually really difficult for the current government".

And your inference that this means trouble forever "until the electoral system is more reflective of public opinion" sounds like the eternal complaint of someone whose preferred party isn't popular enough to form a government.

 

[HalfaSeatOn]

I know it's the age-old sterotype that Tory voters are racist and sexist but let's face ithe awkward truth -- they've had 3 women PMs, and more top female ministers than Labour. As for non-white ministers and shadows, the number seems significantly greater than other parties. And they have actually voted for a non-white man to lead the party and be PM. So a bit of reassessment is needed here. My understanding is that Badenoch is very popular among the members, An item I've just read in the Guardian says a poll by Conservative Home showed a 20% lead for her over Jenrick among the members (ie the people who will elect the leader).

Is he/she one of us? takes precedence by the membership overriding racist tendencies but the latter lurks below.