[Politics] Tory voters- where do you go from here?

[Peteinblack]

Huge majority in seats I'd agree but only 34% of the vote compared to 44% in 1997. I don't think it's a cast iron foundation and we tend to forget about the SNP implosion as well which gifted Labour Scotland. Well see how popular Labour is mid term (and I hope I'm wrong) but they can't really borrow much and taxes are mega high as it is. Where does the money come from? Someone's going to be upset and ill bet its not Amazon.

The Tories could kill Reform overnight if they bought Farage into the camp and made him Shadow Home Secretary.

True, but for all the Reform UK 'defectors' they would probably win back, they would lose more moderate, 'liberal' or One Nation Conservatives to a centrist Labour Party, or the Liberal Democrats.

 

[Machiavelli]

In an NSC EXCLUSIVE, I can reveal that when I saw Kemi earlier this week I took the opportunity to ask her when she would be announcing her candidacy for the leadership of the Conservative Party.

Whereupon she declined to comment and just looked at me funny.

Was that funny look tinged with the rudeness that she's so widely associated with?

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Which will never happen in a million years. Realistically, how do you think the Tories will deal with Reform at the next election?

What makes you so pompously sure? Farage is a power hungry grifter.

I think people on this thread are confusing what they want to happen with what is likely to happen.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Huge majority in seats I'd agree but only 34% of the vote compared to 44% in 1997. I don't think it's a cast iron foundation and we tend to forget about the SNP implosion as well which gifted Labour Scotland. Well see how popular Labour is mid term (and I hope I'm wrong) but they can't really borrow much and taxes are mega high as it is. Where does the money come from? Someone's going to be upset and ill bet its not Amazon.

The Tories could kill Reform overnight if they bought Farage into the camp and made him Shadow Home Secretary.

I deliberately didn’t want to respond to the first paragraph as it’s not what this thread is about. But, 1997 was a very different era and context. I don’t think the two elections can be compared. For one, Reform and the Greens are now properly in the mix, it was as close to a foregone conclusion as it could be which can influence turn out and voting intention.

All I know for sure is that in 2024 Labour had what was needed to win, and win by a huge margin, with some unprecedented swings. 1997 is irrelevant.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

What makes you so pompously sure? Farage is a power hungry grifter.

I think people on this thread are confusing what they want to happen with what is likely to happen.

Pompous? Charming. What was pompous about that? I’m merely stating I’m 100% sure. He like being an outsider, it benefits him in many ways. No way will he want to be a cog in a way bigger machine. The amount of attention he gets is incredible for his relatively low polling. He won’t want to give this up. I also don’t think the Tories would touch him.

 

[Machiavelli]

I can’t really see any way forward for the Tories at the moment. Move further to the right to encourage Reform voters back and they will alienate their more centrist voters to Lib Dem and Labour as well as lose a lot of their “city” donors which will not want to be associated with such a toxic rabble. Move towards the central ground and more will leave to Reform, splitting their vote.

I presumed the party would have taken a breather and had an existential discussion to reconsider what it exactly stands for…..but they’re ploughing on with a new leader who will most likely be chosen from the cabinet which did so much damage over the past 14 years and which the country has already voted on.

TL DR Tories are f***ed.

Well, for a while now @Is it PotG? has been focusing on the planning changes, and Labour do have sizeable plans on this front, and it's going to wind up the NIMBYs no end, so I can see this being what they'll focus on. With a bit of luck though, those predominantly affected will be in complacent constituencies insisting that their rural idyll is being destroyed but few if any of these will be Labour constituencies. We need what Starmer is calling 'the vital green infrastructure', renewables and turbo-boost to housing that has been neglected for 14 years (and, in the latter case, much, much longer) if we're going to transition to net zero which is a legal requirement.
My wager is that it's this that they'll focus on over the course of the parliament while also mobilising those that are poor but don't like the thought of the rich having their pips squeaked. The larger uncertainty is how long the electorate recognises that such a policy agenda is what's required and is the route to a sustainable future.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Pompous? Charming. What was pompous about that?

It was at best very dismissive and patronising.

This is why I don't usually bother with political threads. I'm off to the Garden centre.

 

[WATFORD zero]

There are quite a few regular NSCers who are life-long or long term Conservative supporters/members who have said that they were voting Labour/Lib Dem/Green at this election for the first time over the last few months.

I wonder what they would need the current party to do to regain their support/vote, anyone ?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

It was at best very dismissive and patronising.

This is why I don't usually bother with political threads. I'm off to the Garden centre.

I’m sorry you felt that way as it certainly wasn’t my intention. I guess it was dismissive as I was dismissing that particular idea. But I’m disappointed you felt it was patronizing.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I don't see how the Tories can move further to the left. They are already in favour of higher taxes than any Labour government has ever dared (though that record won't last long) and higher immigration than any Labour government has ever dared (that record may stand for a while, though probably not.) The spend more on the NHS and on welfare than any previous government, they continue to support pointless EU rules such as the one that makes it illegal for a vet to prescribe medicines that are used on humans if the same product is licensed for animals, they continue to support red tape and quangos. I don't see that adapting even more Labour policies will help.

It’s not illegal for a vet to prescribe human medicines for animals. My two cats got an eye infection in 2013, which needed human eye drops. The vet wrote out a prescription which meant that I had to sign a form to agree. It was as simple as that, and within a week both cats were healed.
Actually giving the cats the eye drops was far more difficult, involving pillowcases and lots of plasters on my hands.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

What makes you so pompously sure? Farage is a power hungry grifter.

I think people on this thread are confusing what they want to happen with what is likely to happen.

'Pompously' is needlessly rude.

Do you genuinely think that Reform will lose all the votes it has pinched off the Tories, and that Farage and chums will lose their seats?

I'll bet you £50 now (Money to REMF) that if Farage decides to contest the next GE (he may not, in which case it is irrelevant) his party will take enough votes off the Tories to scupper their GE chances.

To put that into something measurable and incontestable, I mean Reform will win at least 1 seat in the next GE. This is down from what they have now, but not the total disappearance leading to a Tory government as you appear to think. If Reform win no seats then you win (even if they do succeed in preventing the Tories winning a majority).

You on?

 

[Right Brain Ronnie]

Reform.

The conservatives are too left now, they will need to be rebranded to the New conservatives or Conservatives 2025, and rid the left side for my vote next GE.

 

[CheeseRolls]

Huge majority in seats I'd agree but only 34% of the vote compared to 44% in 1997. I don't think it's a cast iron foundation and we tend to forget about the SNP implosion as well which gifted Labour Scotland. Well see how popular Labour is mid term (and I hope I'm wrong) but they can't really borrow much and taxes are mega high as it is. Where does the money come from? Someone's going to be upset and ill bet its not Amazon.

The Tories could kill Reform overnight if they bought Farage into the camp and made him Shadow Home Secretary.

I think there is scope for tax rises in certain areas. CGT, inheritance and pensions, specifically when you tie the latter two together, but otherwise I agree with your first point.

I don't really think you can separate Farage and Reform that easily. I think you are essentially talking of a merger and I suspect there are plenty in both camps who would not follow or support such a move.

 

[CheeseRolls]

Reform.

The conservatives are too left now, they will need to be rebranded to the New conservatives or Conservatives 2025, and rid the left side for my vote next GE.

Hell would have to freeze over for them to gain my vote. However just like your point this is irrelevant to the broader debate here. Elections aren't one or lost by atrracting keyboard warriors.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Well, for a while now @Is it PotG? has been focusing on the planning changes, and Labour do have sizeable plans on this front, and it's going to wind up the NIMBYs no end, so I can see this being what they'll focus on. With a bit of luck though, those predominantly affected will be in complacent constituencies insisting that their rural idyll is being destroyed but few if any of these will be Labour constituencies. We need what Starmer is calling 'the vital green infrastructure', renewables and turbo-boost to housing that has been neglected for 14 years (and, in the latter case, much, much longer) if we're going to transition to net zero which is a legal requirement.
My wager is that it's this that they'll focus on over the course of the parliament while also mobilising those that are poor but don't like the thought of the rich having their pips squeaked. The larger uncertainty is how long the electorate recognises that such a policy agenda is what's required and is the route to a sustainable future.

Interesting.

There is massive house building around Faversham. It started about 5 years ago (so not a Labour thing) And yes, despite a close run in the end, the Tory, Helen Whately (eugh!) won her seat, so we were Tory then and Tory now (thanks to our constituency colleagues in rural villages).

There is no visible anti house protesting here in Faversham. Faversham town council is LibDem (40 year history of excellent leadership from Mike Henderson and chums). I usually vote LibDem in the town council election.

But near Canterbury there are lots of anti building banners up. Yet Canterbury returned a Labour MP for the second time ever (student vote). So the Nimbys have yet to gain traction there.

If the building is done in a measured way with infrastructure it will be fine. In Faversham the problem is the estates simply link to existing single lane arterial roads, so traffic is becoming a problem. With roadworks it can take 40 minutes now to do the 5 minute journey onto the A2 from my place in the north of town.

We managed to see off a renegade-estate build-plan over at Ham farm recently. Land owned by an Isle on Man based trust. Excellent organization via a WhatsApp group set up by Mrs T. They planned to tag access and sewerage onto existing frameworks, which simply won't work. Moreover, we have a 'local plan' and this was not on it. Having a 'Local Plan' is a powerful too, and if it includes 'grey belt' housing it, along with an alert populace ready to challenge renegade building applications, should allow sanity to prevail.

So, on the whole, I am reasonably optimistic the Faversham house expansion can be done well with Labour at the helm. But we will need more dual carriageways, schools and supermarkets. The latter tend to not be captured in existing plans. Going forward however....fingers crossed. At least I don't fear a grifters' carve up, which is what would have happened had the Tories been in power.

 

[Right Brain Ronnie]

Hell would have to freeze over for them to gain my vote. However just like your point this is irrelevant to the broader debate here. Elections aren't one or lost by atrracting keyboard warriors.

Please explain, I didn't say that?

 

[CheeseRolls]

Please explain, I didn't say that?

I did though and for some reason wrote one instead of won. I don't think I make half as many silly errors anywhere else. I can't explain it.

 

[Right Brain Ronnie]

I did though and for some reason wrote one instead of won. I don't think I make half as many silly errors anywhere else. I can't explain it.

Sorry I was referring to what have keyboard warriors got to do with it all, sorry if I have missed your point.

 

[Bodian]

Reform.

The conservatives are too left now, they will need to be rebranded to the New conservatives or Conservatives 2025, and rid the left side for my vote next GE.

'Too left'? Really?

 

[jcdenton08]

'Too left'? Really?