[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Sirnormangall]

BBC is reporting that the outcome of the Georgia election is to (marginally) remain pro Russia. Apparently many of the pro Russia votes were cast in the belief that a pro Europe vote would inevitably lead to another war with Russia: vote for peace or vote for Europe. I feel sorry for Georgians - not an easy decision. Who’d want a border with Russia?

 

[Eric the meek]

 

[CHAPPERS]

 

[raymondo]

Very interesting .
Go, China, ... Manchuria is waiting.

 

[Eric the meek]

A slight antidote to today's result - the Russian economy takes another step towards collapse.

I meant to say that predictions are for a further increase to 23% by year- end.

Mortgage pay rates of 25% anyone?

Then there's inflation. The official rate is 9.4%. Yeah, right. Estimates of the real rate I have read are in the 20s. 22%, 24% and 27%.

 

[essbee1]

Question right: When a country's economy collapses - what happens exactly.....

Does it start with a run on withdrawals of cash from banks and complete inability to buy anything or is it more subtle than that?

 

[essbee1]

Question right: When a country's economy collapses - what happens exactly.....

Does it start with a run on withdrawals of cash from banks and complete inability to buy anything or is it more subtle than that?

It's just I want to observe and savour every second of it when it happens.

 

[A1X]

Question right: When a country's economy collapses - what happens exactly.....

Does it start with a run on withdrawals of cash from banks and complete inability to buy anything or is it more subtle than that?

Run on the banks is usually the start, massive price rises for everyday goods coupled with shortages of just about everything, then services start to shutdown as people stop being paid (doctors, police, judges, firefighters, eventually the military). Things like this can happen and government interventions stop the crisis escalating (as happened in the UK in 2007), but if the central Government has no money to be able to step in then things can snowball very quickly.

 

[essbee1]

Run on the banks is usually the start, massive price rises for everyday goods coupled with shortages of just about everything, then services start to shutdown as people stop being paid (doctors, police, judges, firefighters, eventually the military). Things like this can happen and government interventions stop the crisis escalating (as happened in the UK in 2007), but if the central Government has no money to be able to step in then things can snowball very quickly.

Ta A1X. Very interesting.

 

[Eric the meek]

Run on the banks is usually the start, massive price rises for everyday goods coupled with shortages of just about everything, then services start to shutdown as people stop being paid (doctors, police, judges, firefighters, eventually the military). Things like this can happen and government interventions stop the crisis escalating (as happened in the UK in 2007), but if the central Government has no money to be able to step in then things can snowball very quickly.

Indeed. Also note in the video in post 17283, suggestions of a rise in organised crime with local gangsters and warlords fighting each other. Also people bartering for essentials. Mark Galeotti talks of shoot-outs on the streets of Moscow.

 

[raymondo]

Couple of short detailed videos of the accuracy of Ukraine's drone attacks.

 

[vegster]

Run on the banks is usually the start, massive price rises for everyday goods coupled with shortages of just about everything, then services start to shutdown as people stop being paid (doctors, police, judges, firefighters, eventually the military). Things like this can happen and government interventions stop the crisis escalating (as happened in the UK in 2007), but if the central Government has no money to be able to step in then things can snowball very quickly.

You can comfortably bet that the police and FSB will be getting paid above all others....when they stop being paid Putin falls.

 

[raymondo]

As per Joe Blogs, Ukraine has hit five ethanol distilleries with drone strikes this past week.
Why distilleries?? it's nothing to do with vodka supplies... apparently ethanol is widely used in ammunition production.
These distilleries (unlike oil refineries) are very poorly defended.

 

[Eric the meek]

Paul Warburg confirms in simple terms, that Russia is running out of money: .

 

[raymondo]

Paul Warburg confirms in simple terms, that Russia is running out of money: .

Very good, thanks. Interesting to get an idea of the size of the reserve fund Russia HAD to fight the sanctions and war cost

 

[peterward]

Run on the banks is usually the start, massive price rises for everyday goods coupled with shortages of just about everything, then services start to shutdown as people stop being paid (doctors, police, judges, firefighters, eventually the military). Things like this can happen and government interventions stop the crisis escalating (as happened in the UK in 2007), but if the central Government has no money to be able to step in then things can snowball very quickly.

And the significance of this in a mafia state like Russia is there are very few ideological followers of Putin, loyalty is bought and paid for.

If the money runs out the loyalty runs out.

 

[Eric the meek]

Very good, thanks. Interesting to get an idea of the size of the reserve fund Russia HAD to fight the sanctions and war cost

I'm not an economist, but I still enjoy googling 'ruble to usd'. I find that graph compelling. The link is too long to post, but here's another inverse (USD to ruble) version:

Russian Ruble - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News

The USDRUB increased 0.4759 or 0.49% to 97.7246 on Tuesday October 29 from 97.2487 in the previous trading session. Russian Ruble - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

(Ignore the periods of the ruble doing well - that's just the Russian central bank buying rubles to prop it up, something which they can't do forever).

As I see it, as the reserves (that Russia needs to avoid going into deficit and thus broadcasting other nations' reluctance to trade in rubles), approach zero, the need to print more rubles to finance the deficit, will become more and more acute.

Result - Putin has an increasing battle on his hands to contain inflation. Does he stop spending on the war in an effort to balance the books? Does he admit his mistake? Does he withdraw his troops? I think we all know the answers to these questions.

We could be entering a highly entertaining, albeit a dangerous and febrile period.

 

[sparkie]

I'm not an economist, but I still enjoy googling 'ruble to usd'. I find that graph compelling. The link is too long to post, but here's another inverse (USD to ruble) version:

Russian Ruble - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News

The USDRUB increased 0.4759 or 0.49% to 97.7246 on Tuesday October 29 from 97.2487 in the previous trading session. Russian Ruble - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

(Ignore the periods of the ruble doing well - that's just the Russian central bank buying rubles to prop it up, something which they can't do forever).

As I see it, as the reserves (that Russia needs to avoid going into deficit and thus broadcasting other nations' reluctance to trade in rubles), approach zero, the need to print more rubles to finance the deficit, will become more and more acute.

Result - Putin has an increasing battle on his hands to contain inflation. Does he stop spending on the war in an effort to balance the books? Does he admit his mistake? Does he withdraw his troops? I think we all know the answers to these questions.

We could be entering a highly entertaining, albeit a dangerous and febrile period.

Putin's last hope is a Trump victory.

If Trump loses, Putin has to sue for peace so he can fix his economy and save his own life.

 

[raymondo]

Putin's last hope is a Trump victory.

If Trump loses, Putin has to sue for peace so he can fix his economy and save his own life.

I am hoping that even a Trump victory won't give Putin what he needs to survive.

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm not sure whether I'm fortunate or not here, but in my naivety/innocence, even after having been on this thread almost since the beginning, I still find this
example of Russian disinformation, really quite disturbing.

Sanctions for Russian misinformation linked to Kate rumours

A Russian network sanctioned by the UK for misinformation was linked to false rumours about the Princess of Wales.

www.bbc.co.uk