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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,150
BBC is reporting that the outcome of the Georgia election is to (marginally) remain pro Russia. Apparently many of the pro Russia votes were cast in the belief that a pro Europe vote would inevitably lead to another war with Russia: vote for peace or vote for Europe. I feel sorry for Georgians - not an easy decision. Who’d want a border with Russia?
 










Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,903
A slight antidote to today's result - the Russian economy takes another step towards collapse.


I meant to say that predictions are for a further increase to 23% by year- end.

Mortgage pay rates of 25% anyone?

Then there's inflation. The official rate is 9.4%. Yeah, right. Estimates of the real rate I have read are in the 20s. 22%, 24% and 27%.
 




essbee1

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2014
4,665
Question right: When a country's economy collapses - what happens exactly.....

Does it start with a run on withdrawals of cash from banks and complete inability to buy anything or is it more subtle than that?
 




A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,386
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Question right: When a country's economy collapses - what happens exactly.....

Does it start with a run on withdrawals of cash from banks and complete inability to buy anything or is it more subtle than that?
Run on the banks is usually the start, massive price rises for everyday goods coupled with shortages of just about everything, then services start to shutdown as people stop being paid (doctors, police, judges, firefighters, eventually the military). Things like this can happen and government interventions stop the crisis escalating (as happened in the UK in 2007), but if the central Government has no money to be able to step in then things can snowball very quickly.
 




essbee1

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2014
4,665
Run on the banks is usually the start, massive price rises for everyday goods coupled with shortages of just about everything, then services start to shutdown as people stop being paid (doctors, police, judges, firefighters, eventually the military). Things like this can happen and government interventions stop the crisis escalating (as happened in the UK in 2007), but if the central Government has no money to be able to step in then things can snowball very quickly.
Ta A1X. Very interesting.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,903
Run on the banks is usually the start, massive price rises for everyday goods coupled with shortages of just about everything, then services start to shutdown as people stop being paid (doctors, police, judges, firefighters, eventually the military). Things like this can happen and government interventions stop the crisis escalating (as happened in the UK in 2007), but if the central Government has no money to be able to step in then things can snowball very quickly.
Indeed. Also note in the video in post 17283, suggestions of a rise in organised crime with local gangsters and warlords fighting each other. Also people bartering for essentials. Mark Galeotti talks of shoot-outs on the streets of Moscow.
 






vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
28,238
Run on the banks is usually the start, massive price rises for everyday goods coupled with shortages of just about everything, then services start to shutdown as people stop being paid (doctors, police, judges, firefighters, eventually the military). Things like this can happen and government interventions stop the crisis escalating (as happened in the UK in 2007), but if the central Government has no money to be able to step in then things can snowball very quickly.
You can comfortably bet that the police and FSB will be getting paid above all others....when they stop being paid Putin falls.
 










peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,197
Run on the banks is usually the start, massive price rises for everyday goods coupled with shortages of just about everything, then services start to shutdown as people stop being paid (doctors, police, judges, firefighters, eventually the military). Things like this can happen and government interventions stop the crisis escalating (as happened in the UK in 2007), but if the central Government has no money to be able to step in then things can snowball very quickly.
And the significance of this in a mafia state like Russia is there are very few ideological followers of Putin, loyalty is bought and paid for.

If the money runs out the loyalty runs out.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,903
Very good, thanks. Interesting to get an idea of the size of the reserve fund Russia HAD to fight the sanctions and war cost 👍🏼

I'm not an economist, but I still enjoy googling 'ruble to usd'. I find that graph compelling. The link is too long to post, but here's another inverse (USD to ruble) version:


(Ignore the periods of the ruble doing well - that's just the Russian central bank buying rubles to prop it up, something which they can't do forever).

As I see it, as the reserves (that Russia needs to avoid going into deficit and thus broadcasting other nations' reluctance to trade in rubles), approach zero, the need to print more rubles to finance the deficit, will become more and more acute.

Result - Putin has an increasing battle on his hands to contain inflation. Does he stop spending on the war in an effort to balance the books? Does he admit his mistake? Does he withdraw his troops? I think we all know the answers to these questions.

We could be entering a highly entertaining, albeit a dangerous and febrile period.
 


sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,221
Hove
I'm not an economist, but I still enjoy googling 'ruble to usd'. I find that graph compelling. The link is too long to post, but here's another inverse (USD to ruble) version:


(Ignore the periods of the ruble doing well - that's just the Russian central bank buying rubles to prop it up, something which they can't do forever).

As I see it, as the reserves (that Russia needs to avoid going into deficit and thus broadcasting other nations' reluctance to trade in rubles), approach zero, the need to print more rubles to finance the deficit, will become more and more acute.

Result - Putin has an increasing battle on his hands to contain inflation. Does he stop spending on the war in an effort to balance the books? Does he admit his mistake? Does he withdraw his troops? I think we all know the answers to these questions.

We could be entering a highly entertaining, albeit a dangerous and febrile period.
Putin's last hope is a Trump victory.

If Trump loses, Putin has to sue for peace so he can fix his economy and save his own life.
 






Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,903
I'm not sure whether I'm fortunate or not here, but in my naivety/innocence, even after having been on this thread almost since the beginning, I still find this
example of Russian disinformation, really quite disturbing.

 


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