[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Triggaaar]

Good point. It means that they've still got the reserves to fund this. For the moment.

I would love to know how much they have left and how much it costs them each day.

I think they still have over half.

They will keep going if they think Ukraine might fall or if they think the West will give up on them. If they believed that Ukraine could manage another 5 years, then suddenly they'd realise they're throwing good money after bad. Then they may as well give in.

The West needs to increase support and make it clear we will never give up on Ukraine.

 

[raymondo]

Happy New Year everyone... back to business:
Nice video at the end

 

[Eric the meek]

Happy New Year to all.

Here's Paul Warburg (AKA The Icarus Project), detailing why Russia's economy will collapse.

TLDR: Russia has got the 'Dutch disease' - an over-reliance on one sector. Gas in the case of the Netherlands, oil, gas and raw materials in the case of Russia.
But do try to watch the last few minutes of the video, from 17:45 onwards - it's Dutch disease at the national level, and Dutch disease at the local level.

 

[raymondo]

Happy New Year to all.

Here's Paul Warburg (AKA The Icarus Project), detailing why Russia's economy will collapse.

TLDR: Russia has got the 'Dutch disease' - an over-reliance on one sector. Gas in the case of the Netherlands, oil, gas and raw materials in the case of Russia.
But do try to watch the last few minutes of the video, from 17:45 onwards - it's Dutch disease at the national level, and Dutch disease at the local level.

Very interesting thanks.
Looking at it side by side with post #19380 from @A1X and that's one example (as predicted by Warburg) of how the Russian government can't/won't keep affording the payments it promised to its peoples (criminals in this case). We can expect more to follow I suspect...e.g. military sign up bonuses delayed for so long that they are rendered almost worthless by inflation.

 

[raymondo]

Another milestone.
Moldova appears most at risk from negative fall out.

Ukraine stops transit of Russian gas to EU in end of era

The EU says most states will not be affected but other European countries, including Moldova, are facing shortages.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Eric the meek]

Very interesting thanks.
Looking at it side by side with post #19380 from @A1X and that's one example (as predicted by Warburg) of how the Russian government can't/won't keep affording the payments it promised to its peoples (criminals in this case). We can expect more to follow I suspect...e.g. military sign up bonuses delayed for so long that they are rendered almost worthless by inflation.

Exactly. that's why they are delaying them for so long.

Fast forward to whenever the war ends. The military will be returning home, some of them armed, having not been paid what was agreed, to a country ravaged by inflation, shortages and probably hunger. It could be a dangerous time.

 

[Nobby]

Another milestone.
Moldova appears most at risk from negative fall out.

Ukraine stops transit of Russian gas to EU in end of era

The EU says most states will not be affected but other European countries, including Moldova, are facing shortages.

www.bbc.co.uk

I see that the wonderful Slovakian Prime Minister, Robert Fico, has threatened to stop supplying electricity to Ukraine after his visit to his Lord and Master, Putin.
Wonder how much Fico's personal funds are increasing day day by day.

Maybe the EU could stop any funding or project support to Slovakia in the meantime?

 

[raymondo]

Still focusing on ' cleaning up ' their far flung regions...

 

[raymondo]

This refers to an unmanned sea drone shooting down a Russian helicopter over the Black Sea. It's a first.

 

[raymondo]

I see that the wonderful Slovakian Prime Minister, Robert Fico, has threatened to stop supplying electricity to Ukraine after his visit to his Lord and Master, Putin.
Wonder how much Fico's personal funds are increasing day day by day.

Maybe the EU could stop any funding or project support to Slovakia in the meantime?

Would at least hope the EU will make life uncomfortable for Fico, somehow.

 

[Shropshire Seagull]

Undoubtedly some form of retaliation will have been rehearsed such as blitzing Moscow, as you suggest, but I was responding to a poster who intimated that NATO had plans to invade Russia as the Russians have done in Ukraine.

The West is way, way more smarter than having a tactic like "blitzing Moscow"

Undoubtedly, there will be lists of key high-value targets for EVERY country that would be review-ready should any hostilities arise.
We already see Ukraine being very target-specific, no blitzing ...

I always imagined such targets would be things like neutralising enemy attack capabilities, communications, ammo-dumps and arms supply that would have a much greater benefit than razing any city to the ground.

Yes, it was a successful tactic 80 years ago against Japan but warfare is very different now .....

 

[fly high]

Still focusing on ' cleaning up ' their far flung regions...

Good luck trying to actually get the money.

 

[fly high]

Happy New Year to all.

Here's Paul Warburg (AKA The Icarus Project), detailing why Russia's economy will collapse.

TLDR: Russia has got the 'Dutch disease' - an over-reliance on one sector. Gas in the case of the Netherlands, oil, gas and raw materials in the case of Russia.
But do try to watch the last few minutes of the video, from 17:45 onwards - it's Dutch disease at the national level, and Dutch disease at the local level.

Watched the follow up video on impact of Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and storage. Seems if Russia is forced to shut down their Siberian oil fields it will take decades to reopen them. By then the world will have less need for it.

 

[Scappa]

Hopefully it's something valuable

This refers to an unmanned sea drone shooting down a Russian helicopter over the Black Sea. It's a first.

 

[Shins]

Does anyone think that there's any scenario where NATO step in without escalation on NATO territory? I can't believe that this is still ongoing and with all the Russian interference in NATO infrastructure and elections to add to the war.

Acutely aware of the risks on NATO intervention, but I almost want it to happen and call Putin's bluff. He must know retaliation would lead to his demise. They've proven to be weak and his constant warnings to the west show it, because he's scared.

Very happy to be told to have a good sleep and rethink yet more escalation.

 

[raymondo]

Does anyone think that there's any scenario where NATO step in without escalation on NATO territory? I can't believe that this is still ongoing and with all the Russian interference in NATO infrastructure and elections to add to the war.

Acutely aware of the risks on NATO intervention, but I almost want it to happen and call Putin's bluff. He must know retaliation would lead to his demise. They've proven to be weak and his constant warnings to the west show it, because he's scared.

Very happy to be told to have a good sleep and rethink yet more escalation.

There may well be a scenario...not sure what that would be but I don't think it's impossible.

 

[Eric the meek]

***Warning***
This video contains a 'Look where I am on Christmas Day' brag, and a weird mid-life crisis headscarf.

Look beyond this if you can, and it's a very interesting development in global shipping, and a possible disruption to Russia's shadow fleet.

 

[Eric the meek]

Ruble is 113.686, up from 110.498. On New Year's Day, a bank holiday in Russia.

I don't know if the suspension of foreign currency trading has been lifted.

USD/RUB Currency Exchange Rate & News - Google Finance

Get the latest United States Dollar to Russian Ruble (USD / RUB) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.

www.google.com

 

[Triggaaar]

Does anyone think that there's any scenario where NATO step in without escalation on NATO territory?

Well NATO countries infrastructure is being attacked, so perhaps NATO could respond in kind? Not killing Russians, but damaging their infrastructure.

Very happy to be told to have a good sleep and rethink yet more escalation.

We're all trying to make educated guesses too.

 

[Triggaaar]

***Warning***
This video contains a 'Look where I am on Christmas Day' brag, and a weird mid-life crisis headscarf.

Don't put yourself down, I think the headscarf suits you.