[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[The Clamp]

I don't know why Ukraine doesn't just say it was a drone

Read the “article”.

 

[Commander]

And yet the West still rolls over & fall for it. If we had all stood up in the early days & given Ukraine the tools to win Ukraine would not be in the position it finds itself now, they would have won by now. Something many of us on here have already said & no doubt will say again.

It's easy to say now. I remember saying before this all began that if NATO had lined up a massive force on the Ukraine / Russia border and said to Putin "If you put one foot across that border you are at war with NATO" then there is no way on Earth he would have invaded. But can you imagine how unpopular that policy would have been domestically? Hundreds of thousands would have been out on the streets of every city in Europe protesting against a war with Russia.

 

[The Clamp]

It's easy to say now. I remember saying before this all began that if NATO had lined up a massive force on the Ukraine / Russia border and said to Putin "If you put one foot across that border you are at war with NATO" then there is no way on Earth he would have invaded. But can you imagine how unpopular that policy would have been domestically? Hundreds of thousands would have been out on the streets of every city in Europe protesting against a war with Russia.

I very much doubt anyone would have protested. With Russia’s history of horrendous invasions of other counties, there was never any doubt what Russia what Russia were going to do.

We should have fired a few missiles at the Russian troops massed by the border. Sent them packing before they even stepped over the border.

 

[Commander]

I very much doubt anyone would have protested. With Russia’s history of horrendous invasions of other counties, there was never any doubt what Russia what Russia were going to do.

We should have fired a few missiles at the Russian troops massed by the border. Sent them packing before they even stepped over the border.

People would have been absolutely up in arms about us 'warmongering' against a nuclear power. It was an absolute non-starter of a policy. Even though it was probably the correct one.

 

[Braggfan]

People would have been absolutely up in arms about us 'warmongering' against a nuclear power. It was an absolute non-starter of a policy. Even though it was probably the correct one.

I think you're absolutely right on both counts. With hindsight we should have done exactly as you say. But as you point out there would definitely have been mass protests.

Personally I've been amazed at how many of my opinions have changed because of this war. I did previously protest the war in Iraq, and was in favour of nuclear disarmament for many years. I think because I was naive enough to believe that we wouldn't get to this situation we're currently in. But I think its clear that Russia only responds to force, and that its also clear nuclear deterrent is sadly still absolutely essential.

 

[The Clamp]

People would have been absolutely up in arms about us 'warmongering' against a nuclear power. It was an absolute non-starter of a policy. Even though it was probably the correct one.

I think you are wrong.

 

[raymondo]

Read the “article”.

I did

 

[The Clamp]

I did

It mentions drones

 

[Commander]

I think you are wrong.

You honestly think that if the UK had effectively declared war on Russia in Feb 2022 that there wouldn't have been mass protests?

Come on Clampy old chap, I've always liked you as a poster but that idea is preposterous. It would have been an unbelievably unpopular policy with the general public.

I think you're absolutely right on both counts. With hindsight we should have done exactly as you say. But as you point out there would definitely have been mass protests.

Personally I've been amazed at how many of my opinions have changed because of this war. I did previously protest the war in Iraq, and was in favour of nuclear disarmament for many years. I think because I was naive enough to believe that we wouldn't get to this situation we're currently in. But I think its clear that Russia only responds to force, and that its also clear nuclear deterrent is sadly still absolutely essential.

I think it's very easy when you live in a rich, successful, liberal country (despite the fact it doesn't feel like one sometimes) to assume everyone else is just like us. They aren't.

 

[raymondo]

It mentions drones

Ok, I thought you meant the Daily Mail article, and that says missile.
Originally yesterday I'd read it was drones, but who knows, as the Mail says they quote a Ukrainian official that it was missiles!
Never mind, we are both happy that SOMETHING hit the ammo dump

 

[The Clamp]

You honestly think that if the UK had effectively declared war on Russia in Feb 2022 that there wouldn't have been mass protests?

Come on Clampy old chap, I've always liked you as a poster but that idea is preposterous. It would have been an unbelievably unpopular policy with the general public.

I think it's very easy when you live in a rich, successful, liberal country (despite the fact it doesn't feel like one sometimes) to assume everyone else is just like us. They aren't.

Maybe some voices of protest but it should have been explained;

“The Russians are going to invade Ukraine. We all know this. And you know it. So we blew them off the face of the earth. You’ll thank us for it”

If only I was in charge of such matters

 

[Commander]

Maybe some voices of protest but it should have been explained;

“The Russians are going to invade Ukraine. We all know this. And you know it. So we blew them off the face of the earth. You’ll thank us for it”

If only I was in charge of such matters

I’m sure the people would have listened to reason and changed their viewpoints immediately. That’s how these things usually work.

 

[Sirnormangall]

Not very high is the answer. A lot of charts are out of date, or show commitments rather than delivery. This one may be more useful, also shows %gdp.

Google Image Result for http://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/28489.jpeg

images.app.goo.gl

The one above still majors by amount of support, this next one majors by %gdp. As you'll see, the Baltics are at the top then. Like most pretty charts they are out of date, or plot commitments rather than delivery - gives an idea though.

Google Image Result for https://www.economist.com/media-assets/image/20220507_WOC131.png

images.app.goo.gl

Thanks for posting- still struggling to find Spain and Italy! Maybe they’ll be immune from any fall out……..something for other countries to resolve.

 

[raymondo]

Thanks for posting- still struggling to find Spain and Italy! Maybe they’ll be immune from any fall out……..something for other countries to resolve.

Italy props up the first chart I posted... but yes.

 

[Sirnormangall]

Yes, but it doesn't matter as long as Ukraine refuse. No one (Trump can try) can legitimately argue to Ukraine that it's right they give up some of it. You don't invade a country, fail, and then get to keep some of it.

Re Trump, sorry if it’s been mentioned before but I was reminded today about Trump’s alleged phone call to Zelensky in 2019 to dig up dirt on Hunter Biden in return for continued US military support. Can’t remember whether the allegations were proven but I wonder how much, if at all, that might affect Trump’s approach to Ukraine now.

 

[peterward]

The ruble is falling again.

Spare a thought for the Russians at the central bank, anxiously looking at their computer screens.

Like Palace fans staring at the Premier League table.

Could do with a nicely timed frantic mass ATM withdrawal by Russian public.

What better than a consumer lead panic run on the banks. Hope Budanov is lining up a few disinfo/information bombs!

 

[peterward]

I very much doubt anyone would have protested. With Russia’s history of horrendous invasions of other counties, there was never any doubt what Russia what Russia were going to do.

We should have fired a few missiles at the Russian troops massed by the border. Sent them packing before they even stepped over the border.

I guess the bigger problem is very few western capitals have real leaders of courage or conviction.

They're all focus group based escalation managers, more worried about their personal opinion polling than the courage of convictions.

I agree with you, that Putin wouldnt have done it with a display of resolve and force but wheres that going to come from? Scholz? Macron? Bojo? Starmer?

They're all managers, not leaders.

 

[raymondo]

Could do with a nicely timed frantic mass ATM withdrawal by Russian public.

What better than a consumer lead panic run on the banks. Hope Budanov is lining up a few disinfo/information bombs!

They'd better take it out and stuff it under the mattress...before Putin decides a war tax of 20,% on all savings, because those cynical Russians didn't buy enough of the excellent value war bonds.

 

[Zeberdi]

Re Trump, sorry if it’s been mentioned before but I was reminded today about Trump’s alleged phone call to Zelensky in 2019 to dig up dirt on Hunter Biden in return for continued US military support. Can’t remember whether the allegations were proven but I wonder how much, if at all, that might affect Trump’s approach to Ukraine now.

It was ‘proven’ on witness accounts in the room - There were phone recordings too iirc.

Best to read back on the Trump thread for Trump’s approach to Ukraine - suffice to say Trump’s approach to Ukraine has remained the same throughout his first Term and throughout Biden’s administration and that is one of appeasement to Putin and blocking or stalling military aid to Ukraine both to appeal to an increasingly isolationist American electorate and to Putin..

I rather suspect the change of policy by Biden in allowing Ukraine to use US missiles against targets inside Russia is to precipitate an end to the war ( or at least give Ukraine a cushion of advantage from which to negotiate a peace settlement) before Trump takes over the White House in January.

As for nuclear deterrence, I’ve said it before but Putin has successfully weaponised the idea of nuclear deterrence with his rhetoric on the use of tactical nuclear weapons to the point NATO were the ones deterred from confronting Russia in the early days of the war.

- NATO has looked like rabbits in the headlights ever since.

My emotions tells me that we should turn the nuclear rhetoric around and hold it over Putin as he is doing with NATO -we must be prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons or at least convince him of such. Short of NATO putting boots on the ground in Ukraine, I can’t see an alternative battle plan. A very high risk strategy though.

My head however, tells me the East and West requires a Peace Plan based on something like a new North/South axis of neutrality - consisting maybe of Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, and Moldova - an axis of neutrality acting as a buffer zone between the East and West - an axis that is protected jointly by Russia and NATO and being an area of free trade/economic development with both the East and West and most importantly, an axis of neutrality that leaves Ukraine in full control of its sovereign territory.

 

[Eric the meek]

They'd better take it out and stuff it under the mattress...before Putin decides a war tax of 20,% on all savings, because those cynical Russians didn't buy enough of the excellent value war bonds.

If they stuffed it under the mattress, then they will have lost through rampant inflation. And if they think of spending it imported goods, as opposed to that substandard Russian stuff, then that will also cost them more due to the ruble falling.