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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)







peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,378
Not really Russia invades Ukraine related, but very interesting events going down Moldova tonight.

They had presidential election and a twin referendum to change constitution, to enshrine desire to join EU in it.

All prior polling suggested around 65-68% in favour of joining EU, but loads of reports of Russia funneling many millions of euros to try and buy No votes against joining EU for cash, the biggest pro Russian candidate has been quite open about it, they've caught multiple Russians trying to bring cash in to bribe votes and BBC on ground has witnessed rampant vote buying attempts, saying Putin has attempted to buy 300k no votes.

Anyway it's going to absolute wire, No vote (with Putins vote buying still ahead by a whisker bit with 1.4 million votes counted and 96% its just 35k votes in it and most of those left are overseas who are breaking 75-25 towards Yes to join EU.

Can follow their CEC live, its middle tab "Rezultate Prelimiere Referendum" for live EU referendum results. Hopefully Putin has blown millions, tried to rig it and still fails 🤞

 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,643
Wiltshire
I found this video discussion very interesting. There's a bit too much blah from the host in the first few minutes, but the input from the US contributor (a Prof) is very good. It covers:
- US election and possible impact on Ukraine
- Could Trump be persuaded to support Ukraine
- Would the Democrats take the shackles off Ukraine if they win the election (he thinks probably not)
- Has Europe been sleepwalking waiting for US election
- How soon can Ukraine deliver its own long distance missiles
If you've got 25 minutes, it's some different guys to listen to.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,643
Wiltshire
I thought they were all in military camps in the far east - in Khabarovsk etc?

I guess not. If I find anything about it, I'll post it.

In the meantime........see my next post.
I've read both things:
- videos of N Korean troops in camps in the east
- alleged videos of some small numbers in camps close to Ukraine...maybe videos from partisans.

No idea , I'm waiting for BBC verify, that's if they've noticed the Nth Korean involvement yet.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,643
Wiltshire
Not really Russia invades Ukraine related, but very interesting events going down Moldova tonight.

They had presidential election and a twin referendum to change constitution, to enshrine desire to join EU in it.

All prior polling suggested around 65-68% in favour of joining EU, but loads of reports of Russia funneling many millions of euros to try and buy No votes against joining EU for cash, the biggest pro Russian candidate has been quite open about it, they've caught multiple Russians trying to bring cash in to bribe votes and BBC on ground has witnessed rampant vote buying attempts, saying Putin has attempted to buy 300k no votes.

Anyway it's going to absolute wire, No vote (with Putins vote buying still ahead by a whisker bit with 1.4 million votes counted and 96% its just 35k votes in it and most of those left are overseas who are breaking 75-25 towards Yes to join EU.

Can follow their CEC live, its middle tab "Rezultate Prelimiere Referendum" for live EU referendum results. Hopefully Putin has blown millions, tried to rig it and still fails 🤞

Blimey, there's no end to the shit.
Haven't looked at the results 🤞🏻🤞🏻.
Money money money 🤦🏼‍♂️
 






peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,378
Blimey, there's no end to the shit.
Haven't looked at the results 🤞🏻🤞🏻.
Money money money 🤦🏼‍♂️
The results with 98.5% counted have now just crept into Yes winning referendum and the remaining votes are overseas, so it looks certain Yes will still win despite Putins massive meddling.

But just as Yes took lead, the Moldovan election commission site has been DDOS attacked and taken offline, I wonder by whom!

The "51 election turnout" you mentioned on BBC isn't exactly 51%, its a tad higher than that I think? But in the presidential and referendum elections, under their constitution they needed a minimum of over 50% of electorate to vote for vote to be deemed valid. Its confirming they passed that minimum threshold.

Moldova is next on Putins hitlist and he was desperate to try and sway the EU vote with vote buying.

Looks like he's going to fail and it will pass with razor thin margin?

20241021_085600.jpg
 
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Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,447
I found this video discussion very interesting. There's a bit too much blah from the host in the first few minutes, but the input from the US contributor (a Prof) is very good. It covers:
- US election and possible impact on Ukraine
- Could Trump be persuaded to support Ukraine
- Would the Democrats take the shackles off Ukraine if they win the election (he thinks probably not)
- Has Europe been sleepwalking waiting for US election
- How soon can Ukraine deliver its own long distance missiles
If you've got 25 minutes, it's some different guys to listen to.

I liked the bit from Gerdes where he says 'I'm not an economist'. He isn't alone in that on Youtube*.

But I think he was right to advise caution over an imminent Russian collapse. He said that he can't tell how long before something bad is going to happen. He favours some political or economic event being the catalyst for a collapse, which will happen quickly. But he doesn't know when. This is as decent a prediction as any.

*The IMF give Russia until towards the end of 2025. However, they predicted the economic demise of Russia by the end of 2024. Which technically, could still happen.

P.S. On another video, I heard that the 'known' unofficial inflation rate is 22-24%. No provenance for that figure was provided, but if true, it is not sustainable.

My advice for Russians, is to invest in wheelbarrows.
 






raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,643
Wiltshire
The results with 98.5% counted have now just crept into Yes winning referendum and the remaining votes are overseas, so it looks certain Yes will still win despite Putins massive meddling.

But just as Yes took lead, the Moldovan election commission site has been DDOS attacked and taken offline, I wonder by whom!

The "51 election turnout" you mentioned on BBC isn't exactly 51%, its a tad higher than that I think? But in the presidential and referendum elections, under their constitution they needed a minimum of over 50% of electorate to vote for vote to be deemed valid. Its confirming they passed that minimum threshold.

Moldova is next on Putins hitlist and he was desperate to try and sway the EU vote with vote buying.

Looks like he's going to fail and it will pass with razor thin margin?

View attachment 190614
Thanks for the detailed clarification👍. Do you have any idea whether 'independent observers' were in Moldova to report on the elec tion processes
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,643
Wiltshire
I liked the bit from Gerdes where he says 'I'm not an economist'. He isn't alone in that on Youtube*.

But I think he was right to advise caution over an imminent Russian collapse. He said that he can't tell how long before something bad is going to happen. He favours some political or economic event being the catalyst for a collapse, which will happen quickly. But he doesn't know when. This is as decent a prediction as any.

*The IMF give Russia until towards the end of 2025. However, they predicted the economic demise of Russia by the end of 2024. Which technically, could still happen.

P.S. On another video, I heard that the 'known' unofficial inflation rate is 22-24%. No provenance for that figure was provided, but if true, it is not sustainable.

My advice for Russians, is to invest in wheelbarrows.
They need to ship in some economists from Argentina 😏
 








fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
1,789
in a house

Sometimes we forget how hard it is for some. Supporting them tomorrow night against Arsenal.

Edit. Should and any EPL player complains about their lot they can feck off.
 
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Shropshire Seagull

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2004
8,819
Telford
Not really Russia invades Ukraine related, but very interesting events going down Moldova tonight.

They had presidential election and a twin referendum to change constitution, to enshrine desire to join EU in it.

All prior polling suggested around 65-68% in favour of joining EU, but loads of reports of Russia funneling many millions of euros to try and buy No votes against joining EU for cash, the biggest pro Russian candidate has been quite open about it, they've caught multiple Russians trying to bring cash in to bribe votes and BBC on ground has witnessed rampant vote buying attempts, saying Putin has attempted to buy 300k no votes.

Anyway it's going to absolute wire, No vote (with Putins vote buying still ahead by a whisker bit with 1.4 million votes counted and 96% its just 35k votes in it and most of those left are overseas who are breaking 75-25 towards Yes to join EU.

Can follow their CEC live, its middle tab "Rezultate Prelimiere Referendum" for live EU referendum results. Hopefully Putin has blown millions, tried to rig it and still fails 🤞

Is that like our Brexit referendum, only in reverse?
What was our outcome? 52% to 48% - this one looks even closer.
Now wondering if the leave (for us) was won with a bit of Russian persuasion?
 




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