[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

This is one of those moments when idle speculation is thoroughly enjoyable, as any or all theories could easily be true.

Leaky defence? Check.
Own goals, most recently Belgorod? The timing fits nicely, doesn't it?
Shoigu's deputy Ivanov recently accused of taking bribes? Oh no, surely not this one. Taking bribes is compulsory in Russia.

Yes, could well be corruption in the mix... maybe Putin didn't get his cut

 

[papachris]

Steve Rosenberg BBC Russia correspondent was just in the BBC breakfast studio being interviewed. Normally reports from Russia. There's a guy with a difficult job. As he said he is viewed as a journalist from an unfriendly country

 

[Eric the meek]

The reshuffle is interesting. Putin values loyalty above competence and experience, so things must have got pretty bad for him to move Shoigu sideways. The new defence minister is apparently a yes man.

But someone said that it wasn't Shoigu's move that is significant. It's the fact that Shoigu has now got Patruschev's job, and it is unknown where Patruschev is going, if anywhere.

So there is a change at the top in both defence and security. You don't do that if things are going well.

 

[sparkie]

Steve Rosenberg BBC Russia correspondent was just in the BBC breakfast studio being interviewed. Normally reports from Russia. There's a guy with a difficult job. As he said he is viewed as a journalist from an unfriendly country

I dread the day when we have the 'Steve Rosenberg locked in Putin's gulag' thread.

 

[raymondo]

Steve Rosenberg BBC Russia correspondent was just in the BBC breakfast studio being interviewed. Normally reports from Russia. There's a guy with a difficult job. As he said he is viewed as a journalist from an unfriendly country

Yes, he walks a fine line to stay there doing his job.

 

[raymondo]

Ammo dump hit by Ukraine . Just a screenshot.

 

[raymondo]

This is a worry. Is Russia launching more and overwhelming defences? Ukraine very short on defense ammunition?

 

[peterward]

I’m in Budapest on holiday. I was disappointed by the lack of Ukrainian flags on display, but this afternoon there was a march attended by loads of Ukrainian people, dressed in national costume. They gathered outside St Stephen’s Basilica, and played their traditional music, sang and listened to pro Ukrainian speeches. Slava Ukraini !

Youre in a country with a fascist lite, pro Putin puppet.

Still great to hear Ukrainians are making their vocies heard.

You were on the table next to me I guess (by name on your shirt) at that outdoor bar in the park by Bus departures in Rome. Hoping this city break is less painful!

Heroyam Slava.

 

[Binney on acid]

Youre in a country with a fascist lite, pro Putin puppet.

Still great to hear Ukrainians are making their vocies heard.

You were on the table next to me I guess (by name on your shirt) at that outdoor bar in the park by Bus departures in Rome. Hoping this city break is less painful!

Heroyam Slava.

You are spot on regarding your observations relating to Orban. Hungary is desperate for foreign investment. Apparently swathes of Budapest has been bought by Dubai, and last week they welcomed a deputation from China, and secured Chinese investment in rail and energy. I thought the Benny Hill appreciation society were in town !
At a time when Europe is trying to distance itself from China, Hungary solicits trade with pariah states. Tragic, because Budapest is a truly wonderful city, and I should imagine that Hungary is a lovely country.
It wasn't me that you saw in Rome. I didn't go.

 

[raymondo]

In Archangelsk harbour

 

[raymondo]

You are spot on regarding your observations relating to Orban. Hungary is desperate for foreign investment. Apparently swathes of Budapest has been bought by Dubai, and last week they welcomed a deputation from China, and secured Chinese investment in rail and energy. I thought the Benny Hill appreciation society were in town !
At a time when Europe is trying to distance itself from China, Hungary solicits trade with pariah states. Tragic, because Budapest is a truly wonderful city, and I should imagine that Hungary is a lovely country.
It wasn't me that you saw in Rome. I didn't go.

I did a bike ride from Vienna to Budapest many years ago. Beautiful rural scenes, hospitable people, and ending in a great city.

 

[raymondo]

Ukraine apparently hacked Crimean TV channels and broadcast this video. Powerful stuff.

 

[Eric the meek]

In Archangelsk harbour

This is an odd one. Why a river cruise liner? Was it being used as a supply ship, transporting kit along Russia's internal waterways? Or did they want to take the dry dock it was being repaired in, out of use? Like they did at Sevastopol?

 

[Eric the meek]

Ukraine apparently hacked Crimean TV channels and broadcast this video. Powerful stuff.

This is a top hack. It will not go down at all well in the Kremlin. As a proof of concept, it may lead to further similar hacks inside Russia. But this hack is aimed at the Russian, central Asian and Siberian settlers in Crimea. How will they react?

 

[raymondo]

This is an odd one. Why a river cruise liner? Was it being used as a supply ship, transporting kit along Russia's internal waterways? Or did they want to take the dry dock it was being repaired in, out of use? Like they did at Sevastopol?

Yes, it's odd... good research btw . I imagine the primary intent was to damage the harbour/dock facilities but as you suggest maybe they knew it was transporting supplies .

 

[raymondo]

This is a top hack. It will not go down at all well in the Kremlin. As a proof of concept, it may lead to further similar hacks inside Russia. But this hack is aimed at the Russian, central Asian and Siberian settlers in Crimea. How will they react?

I hope the hack was as successful as the article suggests ... I hope the whole video played.
Who will Putin replace now? the head of Cybersecurity perhaps.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes, it's odd... good research btw . I imagine the primary intent was to damage the harbour/dock facilities but as you suggest maybe they knew it was transporting supplies .

There's always a reason @raymondo. It's our job to find it. Even if we get it wrong, we can still enjoy the speculation. Sometimes it's the journey and not the destination. River cruise in Russia anyone?

 

[raymondo]

There's always a reason @raymondo. It's our job to find it. Even if we get it wrong, we can still enjoy the speculation. Sometimes it's the journey and not the destination. River cruise in Russia anyone?

Absolutely. If I'm not watching Poirot with Mrs R, this is my favourite detective thread .
It's interesting to try to be in the minds of the Ukrainian group that decides these targets. They must have hundreds of potential targets under analysis for priority and feasibility.
I wonder how much of it comes top down from Budanov, and whether they have specialized analysis teams: refineries, ports, air defense systems, Black Sea...
A far more desirable job than being at the front line.

 

[Eric the meek]

Absolutely. If I'm not watching Poirot with Mrs R, this is my favourite detective thread .
It's interesting to try to be in the minds of the Ukrainian group that decides these targets. They must have hundreds of potential targets under analysis for priority and feasibility.
I wonder how much of it comes top down from Budanov, and whether they have specialized analysis teams: refineries, ports, air defense systems, Black Sea...
A far more desirable job than being at the front line.

I'll dig around to try and find Ukraine's next targets. Give me 15 minutes.

 

[Eric the meek]

'The next days will be very tense, challenging and intense. This will apply to the whole second half of May - early June.' - Anton Gerashchenko.