[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[A1X]

 

[fly high]

Lets face it oil sanctions were only a token gesture and West is happy for it to get through to keep prices down.

 

[raymondo]

Very interesting, thanks for posting. The politics of sanctions is clearly a game.

 

[Eric the meek]

In spite of retaliation from the Russians, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries continue.

I'll try and get some data on Russia's economy to try and understand the effect. In the meantime:

 

[Eric the meek]

Are you planning to get on a Russian plane any time soon? This is well off the radar - in the unlikely event it is working.

TL/DR: The Russian airline industry is operating in a state of risk on risk. A diminishing fleet of older planes being kept flying with used spare parts stripped from old planes.
The decent chaps at Turkish Airlines have stepped in to help out, and in return the US is threatening sanctions against Turkish firms to stop them, and so stop the flow of illegal Russian immigrants crossing the US southern border (you'll have to watch the video), and Russia doesn't like it. Watching this decline in the Russian airline industry is like watching a commensurate decline in Russia's export economy. No oil refineries were mentioned in this video.

 

[raymondo]

Are you planning to get on a Russian plane any time soon? This is well off the radar - in the unlikely event it is working.

TL/DR: The Russian airline industry is operating in a state of risk on risk. A diminishing fleet of older planes being kept flying with used spare parts stripped from old planes.
The decent chaps at Turkish Airlines have stepped in to help out, and in return the US is threatening sanctions against Turkish firms to stop them, and so stop the flow of illegal Russian immigrants crossing the US southern border (you'll have to watch the video), and Russia doesn't like it. Watching this decline in the Russian airline industry is like watching a commensurate decline in Russia's export economy. No oil refineries were mentioned in this video.

Very interesting, thanks.
Amazing to hear that 73000 Russians have tried/entered the US through its southern border (in the last two years?).

I don't quite understand what's going on wrt Russian exit procedures. On the one hand I can understand wanting to look to its citizens as 'business as usual, you can easily fly to these friendly countries for a vacation". On the other hand some must be escaping conscription or just don't want to be part of the rebuild of the glorious Russian future. Sounds very weird to me...they can't all be sleeper agents infiltrating the US, south America surely .
Joe Bloggs is good, very detailed delivery.

 

[Eric the meek]

Very interesting, thanks.
Amazing to hear that 73000 Russians have tried/entered the US through its southern border (in the last two years?).

I don't quite understand what's going on wrt Russian exit procedures. On the one hand I can understand wanting to look to its citizens as 'business as usual, you can easily fly to these friendly countries for a vacation". On the other hand some must be escaping conscription or just don't want to be part of the rebuild of the glorious Russian future. Sounds very weird to me...they can't all be sleeper agents infiltrating the US, south America surely .
Joe Bloggs is good, very detailed delivery.

Perhaps the ones escaping conscription are the wealthier ones who can move their money to foreign countries and/or bribe their way out of Russia, but I'm guessing. I recently heard that some of those who fled Russia, have now returned. There's no place like home, even when home is Russia.

Takeaways from the video include:

1. Turkey is trying to play both sides (no surprise there).
2. In the Russian airline industry, the sanctions are working, even though there are always efforts to circumvent them.
3. Air transport is an integral part of the Russian economy. If it declines, the Russian economy declines with it. Often catching a plane in Russia is the only real option.
4. It's another example of how good the US is at exerting its economic might without putting any boots on the ground, or at least none that we know of.
5. $61 bn of weapons aside, it must be a tremendous comfort for Ukraine, knowing that the US is behind it.

 

[raymondo]

Perhaps the ones escaping conscription are the wealthier ones who can move their money to foreign countries and/or bribe their way out of Russia, but I'm guessing. I recently heard that some of those who fled Russia, have now returned. There's no place like home, even when home is Russia.

Takeaways from the video include:

1. Turkey is trying to play both sides (no surprise there).
2. In the Russian airline industry, the sanctions are working, even though there are always efforts to circumvent them.
3. Air transport is an integral part of the Russian economy. If it declines, the Russian economy declines with it. Often catching a plane in Russia is the only real option.
4. It's another example of how good the US is at exerting its economic might without putting any boots on the ground, or at least none that we know of.
5. $61 bn of weapons aside, it must be a tremendous comfort for Ukraine, knowing that the US is behind it.

Absolutely.
Also, re the Sky video posted earlier about the refining of Russian oil by India, China and Turkey for onward legit () sale to the West.... all the more reason to hit refineries within Russia as much as possible.

 

[raymondo]

Reports (from Denys Davydov) that Ukraine has hit (with drones?) the oil depot in Rovenki, in occupied Lugansk region.
Awaiting more details.

 

[Eric the meek]

Reports (from Denys Davydov) that Ukraine has hit (with drones?) the oil depot in Rovenki, in occupied Lugansk region.
Awaiting more details.

More details here in this report from Sky:

Ukraine war latest updates: Russia launches surprise advance on Ukraine - but why has Moscow opened up second front in war?

Russia has launched an attack in Kharkiv away from recent battlegrounds, Ukraine has said - as Volodymyr Zelenskyy insists his forces were "prepared" for the assault. Two civilians have been killed in the attack, a local governor has said.

news.sky.com

See 21:12 and 21:48

 

[Norman Potting]

Perhaps the ones escaping conscription are the wealthier ones who can move their money to foreign countries and/or bribe their way out of Russia, but I'm guessing. I recently heard that some of those who fled Russia, have now returned. There's no place like home, even when home is Russia.

Takeaways from the video include:

1. Turkey is trying to play both sides (no surprise there).
2. In the Russian airline industry, the sanctions are working, even though there are always efforts to circumvent them.
3. Air transport is an integral part of the Russian economy. If it declines, the Russian economy declines with it. Often catching a plane in Russia is the only real option.
4. It's another example of how good the US is at exerting its economic might without putting any boots on the ground, or at least none that we know of.
5. $61 bn of weapons aside, it must be a tremendous comfort for Ukraine, knowing that the US is behind it.

 

[peterward]

Absolutely.
Also, re the Sky video posted earlier about the refining of Russian oil by India, China and Turkey for onward legit () sale to the West.... all the more reason to hit refineries within Russia as much as possible.

Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries

Washington’s fears about energy markets are misplaced.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[Eric the meek]

Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries

Washington’s fears about energy markets are misplaced.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Great article. Ukraine needs to keep focusing on the oil refineries, but not the crude oil pipelines or crude oil terminals. The export of crude oil needs to continue, so that Russia can still get a lower income from crude oil exports at a depressed price and not be forced to shut down wells and therefore lower supply and cause world oil prices to rise.

It's a bit counter-intuitive, but I understand it more now.

 

[raymondo]

Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries

Washington’s fears about energy markets are misplaced.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Very good article .
I wonder what the crude storage and refining capacity is in India, China, Turkey... will they have to decline the extra Russian exports at some point?

 

[peterward]

Great article. Ukraine needs to keep focusing on the oil refineries, but not the crude oil pipelines or crude oil terminals. The export of crude oil needs to continue, so that Russia can still get a lower income from crude oil exports at a depressed price and not be forced to shut down wells and therefore lower supply and cause world oil prices to rise.

It's a bit counter-intuitive, but I understand it more now.

Indeed, and without the refineries they have decreasing ability to produce refined fuels for their military equipment, plus the cars of millions of Russians who are used to highly subsidised petrol prices.

If Russia is then forced to buy refined fuel products at market prices from elsewehere at much inflated prices to its own previous production costs, its likely to prioritise its military, then what for civillians?

It can only continue to maintain current prices at a massively increased subsidy cost to the state burning through any reserves at much quicker rate, or massively raise end user prices, causing potential civil unrest.

A win-win for Ukraine.

 

[peterward]

Very good article .
I wonder what the crude storage and refining capacity is in India, China, Turkey... will they have to decline the extra Russian exports at some point?

Theres a bit in there about leverage, and it needs reiterating! Russia has limited storage capacity, so it can only shut down wells (and potentially bankrupt themselves with little other export industry), or sell more unrefined oil to those countries you cite, who have ability to refine.

Now they hold ALL the cards, Erdoghan. Modi and Xi have Putins nuts in their hand and can pretty much dictate terms. Putin has zero leverage

 

[Eric the meek]

Indeed, and without the refineries they have decreasing ability to produce refined fuels for their military equipment, plus the cars of millions of Russians who are used to highly subsidised petrol prices.

If Russia is then forced to buy refined fuel products at market prices from elsewehere at much inflated prices to its own previous production costs, its likely to prioritise its military, then what for civillians?

It can only continue to maintain current prices at a massively increased subsidy cost to the state burning through any reserves at much quicker rate, or massively raise end user prices, causing potential civil unrest.

A win-win for Ukraine.

Indeed.

The following extract is worth highlighting:

'Since the Ukrainian strikes began, diesel production has fallen by 16 percent and gasoline production by nine percent. The average weekly wholesale price of gasoline and diesel in western Russia rose by 23 percent and 47 percent, respectively'. This is not what you want when you're in day 806 of a 3 day special military operation.

The only glimmer of hope for Russia, is that they will need less jet fuel for their ever-diminishing fleet of planes.

Just to complete the planes, trains and automobiles theme, there's been a bit of argy-bargy on a train in Rostov, and further north, the Lithuanians are not co-operating to allow Russian trains through to Kaliningrad, if they've got a 'Z' on them.

 

[raymondo]

Indeed.

The following extract is worth highlighting:

'Since the Ukrainian strikes began, diesel production has fallen by 16 percent and gasoline production by nine percent. The average weekly wholesale price of gasoline and diesel in western Russia rose by 23 percent and 47 percent, respectively'. This is not what you want when you're in day 806 of a 3 day special military operation.

The only glimmer of hope for Russia, is that they will need less jet fuel for their ever-diminishing fleet of planes.

Just to complete the planes, trains and automobiles theme, there's been a bit of argy-bargy on a train in Rostov, and further north, the Lithuanians are not co-operating to allow Russian trains through to Kaliningrad, if they've got a 'Z' on them.

Quite right too, Lithuania . No Z trains.

 

[Eric the meek]

Quite right too, Lithuania . No Z trains.

Better still, no f***ing trains at all.

 

[raymondo]

Theres a bit in there about leverage, and it needs reiterating! Russia has limited storage capacity, so it can only shut down wells (and potentially bankrupt themselves with little other export industry), or sell more unrefined oil to those countries you cite, who have ability to refine.

Now they hold ALL the cards, Erdoghan. Modi and Xi have Putins nuts in their hand and can pretty much dictate terms. Putin has zero leverage

Can we perhaps imagine E, M and Xi having a little discussion to fix the prices from and into Russia? ... it's not impossible.