[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Wardy's twin]

You are almost certainly right. I recall the propagandists have several times said things to the effect of 'why does Russia need democracy?' and 'why do you want us to be like you?'. That messaging will have come straight from the Kremlin of course. It is afraid of democracy.

Remember this?

Problem is most ordinary Russians are confusing anarchy and democracy , they know what happened when the authoritarian communist government crashed was not good for them as many became worse off economically and they lost the comfort blanket (be it quite thin) that the government provided.

It was a big mistake thinking that democracy would work straight away in a country that did not have 'understanding' to make it work and then the gangs/criminals/oligarchs/old politicians all stepped in to take the pie (all of it not just a slice) and people retreated to the stability of the communist party and all that brings.

 

[nevergoagain]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c627n83ezlwo Explosion in the engine room?, how very careless.

 

[raymondo]

 

[Binney on acid]

Negotiating peace with a guy that makes Hitler look like a girl guide by comparison. That'll be interesting....

 

[hampshirebrightonboy]

If Trump does achieve a fair, sustainable and secure peace in the near term I will take back all I've said about him. However, I suspect I will continue to consider him a absolute tool.

 

[Eric the meek]

If Trump does achieve a fair, sustainable and secure peace in the near term I will take back all I've said about him. However, I suspect I will continue to consider him a absolute tool.

I'm cautiously optimistic, given his recent announcement that he will continue to support Ukraine (although we don't know the detail of that), and he has set the bar high for all Nato members to contribute 5% of their GDP.

That means he supports Nato and sees a need for it to be well funded. This is good news for the west, and bad news for Putin.

Trump remains unpredictable of course.

 

[SeagullinExile]

If Trump does achieve a fair, sustainable and secure peace in the near term I will take back all I've said about him. However, I suspect I will continue to consider him a absolute tool.

He’ll demand that Ukraine give up it’s claims to Crimea and Donbas. No way will they agree to that, I quiet rightly too.

 

[sparkie]

He’ll demand that Ukraine give up it’s claims to Crimea and Donbas. No way will they agree to that, I quiet rightly too.

I don't think it is out of the question actually.

Crimea - it can be argued that it isn't historically welded to Ukraine.
It was in the Russian Soviet Republic and then transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet Republic as a swap for Ukrainian lands around Rostov.
I don't reckon it's a deal breaker.

Donbas - we are talking about a border on the map and whatever the Donbas wasteland is worth now. A deal can be done where that line is drawn.

But it needs to be a deal - not a capitulation to all Putin's wish list of demands. Ukraine needs to win something.

What would Ukraine gain on the plus side ? It has to gain security guarantees so Putin cannot come back for more after a pause. NATO membership or French/UK/EU troops as a permanent presence on the ground, with 8-10 more patriot batteries and being armed to the teeth might do it.

 

[raymondo]

Security guarantees would have to be rock solid re Crimea, because of it's controlling location for Black Sea shipping.
The Donbas contains huge mineral wealth that Ruzzia want their hands on - I don't know what % of that is currently under Ruzzia occupation.

 

[SeagullinExile]

I don't think it is out of the question actually.

Crimea - it can be argued that it isn't historically welded to Ukraine.
It was in the Russian Soviet Republic and then transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet Republic as a swap for Ukrainian lands around Rostov.
I don't reckon it's a deal breaker.

Donbas - we are talking about a border on the map and whatever the Donbas wasteland is worth now. A deal can be done where that line is drawn.

But it needs to be a deal - not a capitulation to all Putin's wish list of demands. Ukraine needs to win something.

What would Ukraine gain on the plus side ? It has to gain security guarantees so Putin cannot come back for more after a pause. NATO membership or French/UK/EU troops as a permanent presence on the ground, with 8-10 more patriot batteries and being armed to the teeth might do it.

Don’t let Russia take 1 inch of Ukrainian territory. It will only embolden them for future land grabs. We did this with Hitler and Czechoslovakia, that ended well.