[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

I truly hope you are right. Chatting to my Mum's Ukraine neighbours they said all they can do is hope and believe eventually Ukraine will win out even if it takes ten years. Hope it's a lot sooner than that.

Yes, I understand that . It does often feel that, although Ukraine has daily successes (oil refineries, airfield hits etc), the front line on the ground stays where it is or eats a bit more of Ukrainian territory.

Putin is clearly in this 'for ever ', so we have to hope the West is as well.

Our friends in Zaporizhzhia and elsewhere are depressed by the daily reality of shelling and air sirens.

Unless the Russian hierarchy implodes I don't see how this ends at the moment .

 

[peterward]

I think the Russians have fallen into a trap set up by the Americans and nato
The weapons they need are coming or already there and I expect them to start pushing the Russians back

How much is true and how much fog of war, I'm unsure..... but 2 days ago I read that in Kharkov direction, it was the biggest ever recorded single day losses for Russia with over 1750 killed in 1 day.

It said the Ukrainians had stepped back, let the meat move into their kill zone and simply obliterated them?

 

[raymondo]

How much is true and how much fog of war, I'm unsure..... but 2 days ago I read that in Kharkov direction, it was the biggest ever recorded single day losses for Russia with over 1750 killed in 1 day.

It said the Ukrainians had stepped back, let the meat move into their kill zone and simply obliterated them?

And it's not the first time , but if true those numbers are high.

 

[raymondo]

It's crazy.
Zelenskiy has said they need two Patriot Air defence systems to prevent Russia attacking/taking Kharkhiv.
They have been promised by a few countries (IIRC)...so where are they. Do countries think that Russia will wait until they're in place

 

[Eric the meek]

It's crazy.
Zelenskiy has said they need two Patriot Air defence systems to prevent Russia attacking/taking Kharkhiv.
They have been promised by a few countries (IIRC)...so where are they. Do countries think that Russia will wait until they're in place

It has been a theme throughout the war. The west have been slow to provide the weaponry Ukraine has asked for, and sometimes has failed to deliver on the promises it has made. By the time the weapons arrive, the battle has moved on, and requirements have changed. Whatever the reason/excuse for this, the west needs to improve the process.

For a long while I have been of the opinion that the Pentagon have been happy to keep Russia exactly where they want it. At arms length, no boots on the ground, and Ukraine draining Russia of money, morale, troops and arms on a daily basis. But recent events have shown that it isn't enough. Whatever the final outcome of the war may be, the collective failure of the west is costing Ukrainian lives.

 

[Eric the meek]

Not your usual source, but Aljazeera echoes what a few other western sources are saying:

Is Russia’s assault on northeastern Ukraine already losing steam?

Experts say Ukraine’s defence and Russia’s manpower woes will limit the advance, but fears persist.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[raymondo]

Not your usual source, but Aljazeera echoes what a few other western sources are saying:

Is Russia’s assault on northeastern Ukraine already losing steam?

Experts say Ukraine’s defence and Russia’s manpower woes will limit the advance, but fears persist.

www.aljazeera.com

Lots of detail there.
I'd forgotten how close Kharkhiv is to the Russian border.
It's not looking good that Ukraine didn't create a solid defensive line there - probably due to a lack of resources and troops.
Let's hope the forecast slow down/ stop in the Russian advance becomes a reality .

 

[Eric the meek]

Another oil refinery hit at Tuapse on the Russian east coast of the Black Sea.

 

[raymondo]

More detail on the hit on Belbek airfield in Crimea two days back (plus some partisan graffiti)

Partisans: Ammunition depot hit at Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea

The partisans claim that the damaged depot stored "most of the missiles" for Russian Su-27 and Su-30 fighter jets as well as MiG-31 aircraft, a carrier of Kinzhal ballistic missiles that Russia uses to attack Ukraine.

kyivindependent.com

 

[raymondo]

Satellite confirmation of the successful hit on Belbek airfield. As usual the Russians report that they knocked out all of the Ukrainian missiles. Those Russians are just so unlucky with falling debris.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-strike-crimea-airbase-destroys-three-russian-warplanes-satellite-firm-2024-05-17/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=051724&user_email=fbe8f608c83ee81925a2b978f2b2958b033360b3f04b8b5b04ecb85dad88e2b5

 

[ChickenBaltiPie]

How much is true and how much fog of war, I'm unsure..... but 2 days ago I read that in Kharkov direction, it was the biggest ever recorded single day losses for Russia with over 1750 killed in 1 day.

It said the Ukrainians had stepped back, let the meat move into their kill zone and simply obliterated them?

It’s almost certainly true…it’s been a constant for some time! The Ukrainians are repeatedly obliterating the Russians on the front lines. They only concede territory (very little at that) when there is a tactical advantage in them doing so, and take it back or take other strategic areas of benefit as and when it is advantageous to do so, but not at the expense of their heroic soldiers!! They fight smart and with respect for Ukrainian lives.

And ‘that’ is the defining difference! Russian leadership and Putin obv have a very different mindset and will HAPPILY send wave after wave after wave of their men to die. They place ZERO value on Russian lives. Sadly 1,750 Russian lives, the lives of migrants, minorities, convicts, the young, the elderly, the poor and the desperate is more than worth a few metres of territory and the ‘impression’ of victory and success in a desperate attempt to save face and ultimately retain power. It’s INSANITY that in 2024 so few can still dictate the misery of millions!!

Despite incredible (expensive) modern technology, the Russians still choose to send men to die like it’s 1914, because it’s cheaper and more abundant. They will eventually run out of soldiers (they’re certainly running low on well trained soldiers!) but it will be many years yet to come.

The Russians most advanced blitzkrieg military tactics from the 1940’s do the most damage, (predominantly to civilians.)

The Ukrainians are clearly achieving considerably more success with their very strategic, targeted tactics. It really is a case of brain vs brawn.

Despite sanctions, the Russians simply have pretty endless resources in comparison. Ultimately we’re all waiting in a vain hope that the Russian people (the wives and mothers) eventually say: ‘Enough is enough!’ …but I’m not holding my breath!

 

[raymondo]

It’s almost certainly true…it’s been a constant for some time! The Ukrainians are repeatedly obliterating the Russians on the front lines. They only concede territory (very little at that) when there is a tactical advantage in them doing so, and take it back or take other strategic areas of benefit as and when it is advantageous to do so, but not at the expense of their heroic soldiers!! They fight smart and with respect for Ukrainian lives.

And ‘that’ is the defining difference! Russian leadership and Putin obv have a very different mindset and will HAPPILY send wave after wave after wave of their men to die. They place ZERO value on Russian lives. Sadly 1,750 Russian lives, the lives of migrants, minorities, convicts, the young, the elderly, the poor and the desperate is more than worth a few metres of territory and the ‘impression’ of victory and success in a desperate attempt to save face and ultimately retain power. It’s INSANITY that in 2024 so few can still dictate the misery of millions!!

Despite incredible (expensive) modern technology, the Russians still choose to send men to die like it’s 1914, because it’s cheaper and more abundant. They will eventually run out of soldiers (they’re certainly running low on well trained soldiers!) but it will be many years yet to come.

The Russians most advanced blitzkrieg military tactics from the 1940’s do the most damage, (predominantly to civilians.)

The Ukrainians are clearly achieving considerably more success with their very strategic, targeted tactics. It really is a case of brain vs brawn.

Despite sanctions, the Russians simply have pretty endless resources in comparison. Ultimately we’re all waiting in a vain hope that the Russian people (the wives and mothers) eventually say: ‘Enough is enough!’ …but I’m not holding my breath!

Yes, agreed and well put .
Like you I also can't see the wives and mothers saying 'enough', at least those of minorities, convicts, migrants, the poor won't be heard anyway.
I wonder if the Russians at the front line will tire of being used in the meat grinder...and finally turn their guns on their commanding officers?
And the minority ethnic communities may be losing men to the front line in such numbers that there is reducing possibility of regional uprisings.

 

[ChickenBaltiPie]

Yes, agreed and well put .
Like you I also can't see the wives and mothers saying 'enough', at least those of minorities, convicts, migrants, the poor won't be heard anyway.
I wonder if the Russians at the front line will tire of being used in the meat grinder...and finally turn their guns on their commanding officers?
And the minority ethnic communities may be losing men to the front line in such numbers that there is reducing possibility of regional uprisings.

There have been pockets of Russian vs Russian resistance. Now that is brave, and ultimately only ends one way, but not enough!

Prigozhin (the bottle job) was the only one that really had a chance of scuttling things, but he arguably would’ve been as bad as Putin at the end of the day, if not worse. I had such high hopes for them taking each other out!

 

[raymondo]

There have been pockets of Russian vs Russian resistance. Now that is brave, and ultimately only ends one way, but not enough!

Prigozhin (the bottle job) was the only one that really had a chance of scuttling things, but he arguably would’ve been as bad as Putin at the end of the day, if not worse. I had such high hopes for them taking each other out!

Would indeed have been nice if they'd taken each other out in a duel.

Yes, I've read about the odd Russian v Russian shoot out (if true) but it's rare, and fatal so far. Would need enormous coordination along their front line...so unlikely I guess.
Probably their commanders just allow them two bullets each when sent out to attack.

 

[crookie]

Satellite confirmation of the successful hit on Belbek airfield. As usual the Russians report that they knocked out all of the Ukrainian missiles. Those Russians are just so unlucky with falling debris.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-strike-crimea-airbase-destroys-three-russian-warplanes-satellite-firm-2024-05-17/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=051724&user_email=fbe8f608c83ee81925a2b978f2b2958b033360b3f04b8b5b04ecb85dad88e2b5

David Axe on Forbes said maybe 4 aircraft destroyed. Brilliant work if so along with the ammunition fuel and air defence systems. Apparently they used ATACMS, the type with longer range, that basically has 3000 grenade type munitions in each missile. The shorter range ones have 300, but are bigger munitions. Sorry can post the link as it was on my PC and I'm on my phone now. Not amazingly tech savvy sadly !!

 

[Eric the meek]

David Axe on Forbes said maybe 4 aircraft destroyed. Brilliant work if so along with the ammunition fuel and air defence systems. Apparently they used ATACMS, the type with longer range, that basically has 3000 grenade type munitions in each missile. The shorter range ones have 300, but are bigger munitions. Sorry can post the link as it was on my PC and I'm on my phone now. Not amazingly tech savvy sadly !!

Here is the article from the excellent David Axe:

A Storm Of 3,000 Ukrainian Bomblets Blew Up Four Russian Jets At Their Base In Crimea

It was one of the biggest single-day losses for Russian air power in the Ukraine war.

www.forbes.com

 

[Eric the meek]

Winning the war is not going to be easy. But winning the war is just the first leg.

How is the west going to win the peace? How is the west going to turn around the product of decades of tight media control, propaganda and poison against the west?

In Sky News' latest report, see this:

'Most Russians would support ending war 'this week', but only if Russia keeps new gains - poll'.
'While 71% would back an end to the war "this week", this figure drops to just 30% if the condition for peace were to return territories.'

 

[abc]

Not your usual source, but Aljazeera echoes what a few other western sources are saying:

Is Russia’s assault on northeastern Ukraine already losing steam?

Experts say Ukraine’s defence and Russia’s manpower woes will limit the advance, but fears persist.

www.aljazeera.com

I know a number of people who are, like me, a little cynical about what you can and can’t believe from the media, that Aljazeera are the most balanced of media outlets. Don’t know how much that is true - anyone?

 

[raymondo]

David Axe on Forbes said maybe 4 aircraft destroyed. Brilliant work if so along with the ammunition fuel and air defence systems. Apparently they used ATACMS, the type with longer range, that basically has 3000 grenade type munitions in each missile. The shorter range ones have 300, but are bigger munitions. Sorry can post the link as it was on my PC and I'm on my phone now. Not amazingly tech savvy sadly !!

That's a very good strike - they'll be happy about that!

 

[raymondo]

Here is the article from the excellent David Axe:

A Storm Of 3,000 Ukrainian Bomblets Blew Up Four Russian Jets At Their Base In Crimea

It was one of the biggest single-day losses for Russian air power in the Ukraine war.

www.forbes.com

Excellent detail from Mr Axe!
I bet the Russians wish they'd invested more in building protective hangars - smacks of arrogance...who'd have guessed!