[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

Fast forward to a time when Russia is out of troops or weapons. No need to continue the war. Just wage a migration war to disrupt Europe instead. After all, it has worked pretty well so far, hasn't it?

Putin seeking to weaponise threat of mass migration, warns Estonian PM

‘Adversaries know migration is our vulnerability,’ says Kaja Kallas, spelling out negative consequences to Europe of Ukrainian defeat

www.theguardian.com

Excellent piece from Kallas - she is very good and correct to call out the European countries that don't see a bigger risk if Ukraine loses.

Feeling like a European army and agreement is needed, a subset of NATO if you like, but one that can act unilaterally without US approval if needed. I fear Europe doesn't have the stomach for such a thing...I hope I'm wrong.

 

[raymondo]

Putin also knows that NATO membership has an entry requirement of not having disputed borders (written in to avoid, for example, Montenegro joining then immediately invoking Article 5 against Serbia). This is why he’s constantly pushing the boundaries against the likes of Georgia and Ukraine (pre-2022), to prevent them being admitted. If Putin can be forced out of Ukraine then NATO will need to act quickly to admit and solidify Ukraine’s borders before Russia can lick its wounds and regroup. If Ukraine does end up ceding territory in a peace deal (not a good outcome but nevertheless a potential one, especially if Trump wins in November) then both NATO and Kyiv will need to accept that quickly and work to solidify the new borders.

I wonder if NATO would ever drop that entry requirement of peaceful borders,. Maybe "Ukraine can join...and if Russia doesn't stop the aggression within 6 months then NATO will attack".

Hmm ... it's clear I'm not destined for a diplomacy career.

 

[essbee1]

I wonder if NATO would ever drop that entry requirement of peaceful borders,. Maybe "Ukraine can join...and if Russia doesn't stop the aggression within 6 months then NATO will attack".

Hmm ... it's clear I'm not destined for a diplomacy career.

It's a nice idea tho' Raymondo. But I would make it 6 hours rather than 6 months.

 

[A1X]

I wonder if NATO would ever drop that entry requirement of peaceful borders,. Maybe "Ukraine can join...and if Russia doesn't stop the aggression within 6 months then NATO will attack".

Hmm ... it's clear I'm not destined for a diplomacy career.

I suspect not, it’s one of the fundamental issues (and, taking the emotion of the current war out of it, entirely understandable)

 

[beorhthelm]

I wonder if NATO would ever drop that entry requirement of peaceful borders,. Maybe "Ukraine can join...and if Russia doesn't stop the aggression within 6 months then NATO will attack".

Hmm ... it's clear I'm not destined for a diplomacy career.

doubtful. though i expect the end outcome to be a peace negotiation with some Ukraine ceded to Russia, then admission to NATO of Ukraine the next day. this end, Russia may well be playing for negotiating position.

 

[Eric the meek]

I wonder if NATO would ever drop that entry requirement of peaceful borders,. Maybe "Ukraine can join...and if Russia doesn't stop the aggression within 6 months then NATO will attack".

Hmm ... it's clear I'm not destined for a diplomacy career.

Or add in a caveat, that the peaceful borders entry requirement does not apply if Russia has deliberately destabilised the border, announce the caveat as a fait accompli on the eve of implementation, and further announce the accession of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova to NATO, with immediate effect.

 

[raymondo]

Or add in a caveat, that the peaceful borders entry requirement does not apply if Russia has deliberately destabilised the border, announce the caveat as a fait accompli on the eve of implementation, and further announce the accession of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova to NATO, with immediate effect.

Yes, anything would have to be done 'with immediate effect', no pre-announcements from NATO that 'we are working on the possibility of...blah di blah...'. Organise in secret, then do it.

 

[raymondo]

I suspect not, it’s one of the fundamental issues (and, taking the emotion of the current war out of it, entirely understandable)

Yes, understood - in which case I wish the west would give Ukraine the weaponry to actively push back the Russians. I appreciate that may not happen across the whole front line, but if Ukraine were in the ascendancy in many areas we might well see Russia propose peace discussions, as their gains shrink by the day. We can but hope.

 

[Triggaaar]

Winning the peace is not a side issue. Even if Ukraine win, how can it have a secure future as an independent sovereign nation, with a malevolent nation next door?

If Russia loses, then the re-education of Russians can start. We can't persuade them of the truth whilst there's no free media and they're lied to 24/7.

 

[Eric the meek]

If Russia loses, then the re-education of Russians can start. We can't persuade them of the truth whilst there's no free media and there lied to 24/7.

Yes, maybe that is how it will happen. Perhaps some doubts will enter their minds while the war is still in progress, but the real re-education may come later. Being lied to for decades will not be easy to accept. Not being the all-conquering superior military race they thought they were will come as a real shock. Then there's the epic theft of Russia's natural wealth by the elite to line their own pockets and wage a pointless brutal war at huge cost, suffering 500,000 casualties (and counting) that were kept secret from them. When that happens, I will be looking on from a safe distance.

 

[abc]

I would pay to see that.

All proceeds should go to help Ukraine.

On that basis, it should be done now in advance and in anticipation as Ukraine need the money NOW!

 

[Eric the meek]

Matchday update:

Explosions at Dzankhoy (sp) and Sevastopol in Crimea; Kerch bridge blocked with traffic; pyrotechnics* at an oil refinery at Vyborg near Finnish border.

*official Russian explanation for smoke and flames

 

[Binney on acid]

The piece from Kallas is incredibly perceptive. For eons I've been aware of the fact that Putin lives to de-stabilise the west. I just couldn't connect the dots, in order to establish his modus operandi with regards to having troops on the ground in Syria and in Africa. Now it all makes perfect sense. Shame the political parties throughout Europe and beyond lack leaders of that quality.

 

[Binney on acid]

Yes, understood - in which case I wish the west would give Ukraine the weaponry to actively push back the Russians. I appreciate that may not happen across the whole front line, but if Ukraine were in the ascendancy in many areas we might well see Russia propose peace discussions, as their gains shrink by the day. We can but hope.

Sadly this doesn't appear to be an option. Can you imagine Russia's great Tsar conceding an inch of stolen land in negotiations ?

 

[essbee1]

The piece from Kallas is incredibly perceptive. For eons I've been aware of the fact that Putin lives to de-stabilise the west. I just couldn't connect the dots, in order to establish his modus operandi with regards to having troops on the ground in Syria and in Africa. Now it all makes perfect sense. Shame the political parties throughout Europe and beyond lack leaders of that quality.

Well hopefully, before long, Putin won't have enough soldiers for a game of cards at the rate they're getting
blown away, so this strategy might end.

 

[peterward]

I realise I'm jumping ahead perhaps many years, but consider this scenario.

Suppose the West somehow achieves the Holy Grail of a fledgling democracy in Moscow. Parties emerge, and an election is announced. The election takes place, seemingly freely, and the Russians elect Putin back in?

100% they wont, Because if 71 year old Putin loses war and people find out the truth he will either be dragged through streets and beaten to death like Gadaffi in the Hague and jail until he goes to meet Satan, or attempting to do a bunk and begging Xi to offer him safe haven.

There's no scenario where democratic elections happen under Putin and there's no scenario Putin is a candidate in one having lost the war that gives rise to such elections.

 

[raymondo]

The piece from Kallas is incredibly perceptive. For eons I've been aware of the fact that Putin lives to de-stabilise the west. I just couldn't connect the dots, in order to establish his modus operandi with regards to having troops on the ground in Syria and in Africa. Now it all makes perfect sense. Shame the political parties throughout Europe and beyond lack leaders of that quality.

Yes, I hope she gets a key job to influence European policy.

 

[raymondo]

Sadly this doesn't appear to be an option. Can you imagine Russia's great Tsar conceding an inch of stolen land in negotiations ?

But if he's losing many square kilometers by the day, there is a chance he'll concede something - I'm not saying that Ukraine would take the offer if they had the momentum...but Ukraine definitely needs positive momentum in places along the front line.

 

[raymondo]

Well hopefully, before long, Putin won't have enough soldiers for a game of cards at the rate they're getting
blown away, so this strategy might end.

Hopefully ...but he'll fly in thousands of mercenaries from Africa, Cuba, Venezuela.... as well as his huge pool of minorities before he starts eating into Russians that may have a voice.
There's a long way to go.

Even If Ukraine loses troops far more slowly, they're more likely to run out before Russia. Europe and NATO must know this is quite possible.

 

[Eric the meek]

The piece from Kallas is incredibly perceptive. For eons I've been aware of the fact that Putin lives to de-stabilise the west. I just couldn't connect the dots, in order to establish his modus operandi with regards to having troops on the ground in Syria and in Africa. Now it all makes perfect sense. Shame the political parties throughout Europe and beyond lack leaders of that quality.

Recent manifestations have been encouraging migrants to enter Finland from Russia, and enter Poland from Belarus.