[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Machiavelli]

Its two empires fending off. There's no good or evil side. It's not Star Wars, though Hollywood may have shaped us to believe so.

Spare us this tosh with your lame claim to be some neutral, independent, balanced observer of international relations. Paleo-nonsense this is not. Which is worse?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Putin is close to showing the world what a mad man he is.

The Iran/North Korean level sanctions will destroy his economy.

He needs a lot of his wealth to keep those that keep him in power onside. Seizing all his Oligarchs' wealth in Europe and the US will pull the rug from under his regime.

He'll have very few friends - and appears to be on the brink of a mad strategy that will end up destroying him - after 100s of thousands die because of him.

 

[peterward]

Putin is close to showing the world what a mad man he is.

The Iran/North Korean level sanctions will destroy his economy.

He needs a lot of his wealth to keep those that keep him in power onside. Seizing all his Oligarchs' wealth in Europe and the US will pull the rug from under his regime.

He'll have very few friends - and appears to be on the brink of a mad strategy that will end up destroying him - after 100s of thousands die because of him.

We can but hope BV, but theres also no coincidence of the "strategic economical/defence partnership" he agreed with Xi/China last week. They will still buy his gas and oil and no doubt Putin will support Taiwan invasions for quid pro quo re Ukraine

Putin isnt stupid, in as much as he knows hes not the legitimate president, he's rigged, murdered, imprisoned and changed constitution to remain in power. Like all tyrants I'm sure he knows what awaits if he loses his grip on power, around him though the Siloviki or the whole security aparatus and national security advisors are all serving/ex KGB/FSB, they too will want to ensure the regime doesnt collapse as their stolen wealth and crimes remaining unprosecuted depends on it.

You do wonder if Putin is losing his grip on reality. This was in the Guardian a week ago, he seems to surrounded by deusional nutters who still think this is 1985

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/04/putin-security-elite-siloviki-russia

 

[ferring seagull]

There's only 3 countries in Nato that border mainland Russia, the 3 baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia (if you dont include Kaliningrad which is effectively in western europe). All 3 of the baltic nations made an independent and soverign choice to join NATO, almost certainly to protect themselves against Russian aggression and cohersion.

The one person that really pisses me off is certainly not Swansman, its Simon Jenkins writing in the Guardian, he literally parrots the Kremlin narrative, which is entirely false.

NATO is not advancing east it is not a country. It is the nations of the East who are choosing to move westwards away from Russias toxic influence. The former eastern european warsaw pact countries did not join a Moscow/Soviet dominated bloc out of choice, they were forced and subjugated into it. Numerous uprisings occured in Czeckoslovakia, Hunagary and Romania and all were brutally put down. They were enslaved by Moscow who installed moscow friendly puppet governments. When the Soviet Union collapsed they were desperate to protect themselves and their freedom from Russian hegemony and imperialism. Being too small to stand up to a much more powerful bully, they moved west to join the only alliance that could protect them from Moscow. To suggest its NATO marching east to contain Moscow is horse shit. It peoples and nations desperate to escape the repression of Moscow and who cant defend themselves alone that have chosen to join.

I'm not surprised that one of Putins ridiculous demands is that NATO pulls back to where it was in 1994, which would leave the 3 Baltic states as sitting ducks again against the insatiable imperial hunger of Tzar Putin.

You simply will not get "peace in our time" by appeasing Putin.

And for those of us who love to debate the Tories/Labour, Republicans and Dems, leave or remain, the common thing in all such political discourse is you are dealing with mainly rational people, often with some types of moral convictions, but simply wildly different worldviews. Putin is not a statesman, there is no right or wrong, everything is about opportunity and risk and what can I get away with... How many murdered, how many killed, how much devastation is not a problem, what is the risk to me and how can I mitigate it, is the only calculus.

You may hear a lot about the only way out of this is by implementing "the Minsk" agreements of 2015, Macron has this week tried to offer this as the way, the UK and other also suggested it as the best soluton, but its misguided in the extreme to think it could, it simply will not ever happen.

And the reason why, is that what Russia demands can never be agreed by Ukraine, and what Ukraine has reasonably offered will never be accepted by Putin.

Russia acts like its one of the peacemakers, but is both the fire hydrant and the arsonist. There militatry invaded and broke off donabas creating the puppet DNR/LNR statelets, they are still there today and what Moscow insists upon is that Kyiv gives full autonomy to that Region, that Kyiv has no right to disolve its autonomous goverment, no say in anything it does. That the DNR/LNR will be free to join any alliance or have trade aggreements with how it chooses (obviously with Russia) and can for instance allow Russian bases on its soil, and....... that this fully Russian controlled puppet state can have veto power against any Kyiv government decision like joining NATO or the EU. Russian demands that Ukraine Federalize and that its puppet state has veto power over all Kyiv central government decisons, which would of course instantly erode national sovereignty, it is a trojan horse that would be political suicide for any Ukrainian president to agree too. Putin will not stop until he has effective control of Ukrainan foreign policy.

Kyiv has agreed to allow a "degree of autonomy" to the region, but insists, that Ukraine must remain one whole and it will be able to set and make laws locally, but it cant over rule or over ride central goverment or the democratic will of the whole nation if they vote to move towards EU etc.

Kyiv is offering devolution much like we have here in the UK, Moscow having moved in its armed forces into Donbass is actig the equivalent of Sturgeon demanding full indepedence, the freedom to have foreign bases on Scottish soil to join the EU, but also to stay a part of the UK, funded by London with full veto power to over rule anything in westminster including UK trade deals or military allliances.

If you want to read about the Minsk accords you may hear a lot about and Moscows ridiculous demands, chatham house link is excellent as an over view https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/05/minsk-conundrum-western-policy-and-russias-war-eastern-ukraine-0/minsk-2-agreement

I agree with your post which is extremely detailed and I watched, within the past few minutes, the BBC account of the situation which the Ukrainian people found themselves in the 1930's under Stalin. It really is most distressing to see, and, to now see Putin ready to re-enact those times for the citizens of the Ukraine is wholly unacceptable. They, the Russians, have already subjugated Crimea without a whimper.

Surely now the International community has got to stand up and condemn the Russian interference in the Ukraine's self determination. ***

If ever there was a justification for the existence of NATO it is now. It is a defensive pact and it's existence must be fully justified by the actions respectively of Russia towards Ukraine and China towards Taiwan, both independent states.

This is unlike Hong Kong where a time expiring license was involved but, in both 'current cases' , is nothing less than a power grab.

 

[GingerBeerMan]

Thanks for posting [MENTION=15046]peterward[/MENTION], interesting stuff.

 

[Creaky]

I agree with your post which is extremely detailed and I watched, within the past few minutes, the BBC account of the situation which the Ukrainian people found themselves in the 1930's under Stalin. It really is most distressing to see, and, to now see Putin ready to re-enact those times for the citizens of the Ukraine is wholly unacceptable. They, the Russians, have already subjugated Crimea without a whimper.

Surely now the International community has got to stand up and condemn the Russian interference in the Ukraine's self determination. ***

If ever there was a justification for the existence of NATO it is now. It is a defensive pact and it's existence must be fully justified by the actions respectively of Russia towards Ukraine and China towards Taiwan, both independent states.

This is unlike Hong Kong where a time expiring license was involved but, in both 'current cases' , is nothing less than a power grab.

If more than 13 of the 193 members of the UN recognised Taiwan as a sovereign nation and had full diplomatic relations with them then maybe Taiwan would have a chance.

 

[dejavuatbtn]

Putin seems to be in the same category as that mad b*****d Hitler. I can see him invading Ukraine and following up with something that will p*ss the West off sufficiently to start the WW that so far in my life I haven’t had to experience. I really don’t understand his logic because who in the world would want to invade and take over Russia?

 

[Icy Gull]

Putin seems to be in the same category as that mad b*****d Hitler. I can see him invading Ukraine and following up with something that will p*ss the West off sufficiently to start the WW that so far in my life I haven’t had to experience. I really don’t understand his logic because who in the world would want to invade and take over Russia?

Given the amount of Russian money invested in London, it would be catastrophic for him wouldn’t it? As well as us of course

Megalomaniacs, is nothing learned from history?

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Reckon Putin will complete his 10 days of exercises with Belarus then scuttle off back out of there, all the while claiming that the exercises were the reason they were on the Ukraine border all along. Maybe didn't expect his bluff to be called so strongly

 

[banjo]

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Big FALSE FLAG event on Tuesday, invasion on Wednesday ?

The False Flag needs be called out as such repeatedly when it happens, and maybe then there is a slim chance the invasion won't happen.

#PutinsFalseFlag

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

Why can't we all get on and live peacefully.
Only here about 80 odd years and apart from Burnley and Luton it's a beautiful planet with possibly the only life in the entire universe and yet we constantly have to put up with shit like this, wantingly killing innocent people.
It's all very upsetting and totally pointless.

 

[Springal]

Been to Kiev & Donetsk a few times , fascinating country and lovely people

 

[peterward]

Reckon Putin will complete his 10 days of exercises with Belarus then scuttle off back out of there, all the while claiming that the exercises were the reason they were on the Ukraine border all along. Maybe didn't expect his bluff to be called so strongly

I hope youre right, but he is obssessed with regaining control in Ukraine and re subjugating the country. It seems self evident that the US and allies are making public intelligence assessments to make it harder for Putin actually do the deed even with some form of faked pretext. and I do believe that the US are publishing what they believe genuine intelligence ratehr than just making up BS.

Then again, ass you suggest, it could also be plausible that he wasn't actually going to invade, but rather test the west and seeing what concessions he could get, but still if that was the plan all along, if he then leaks what looks like plausible intelligence of an invasion to the US, he can claim the west is hysterical and over reacting..... Russia has after all consistently denied it has any plans to invade (not that you can trust a word they say as they deny everything)

and could that perhaps lead to a Peter and the Wolf scenario, they all stand down now, but come back in a years time to again complete mass excercises all around the border, where this time perhaps nobody will believe the US crying wolf?

Whatever happens Putin will not stop destablising Ukraine, until he either destroys it or gets it back under his heel and a puppet government, the only question is how much personal pain and risk is he willing to endure to make that happen.

 

[peterward]

Been to Kiev & Donetsk a few times , fascinating country and lovely people

Both beautiful cities.

Was always going through Donetsk airport for in laws was last there 4 months before it kicked off, and the Sergey Prokofiev airport was a beautiful little modern airport, built in the lead up to the 2012 euros. Kissed the in laws goodbye a good few times, and to look at it now after Putin sent his thugs in and destroyed the area.

 

[Springal]

The tiles still had the protective stickers on them when I went through the airport it was that new

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Surprise surprise CIA in the mix. Far more likely to initiate a False Flag event than Putin IMHO

 

[Mackenzie]

Lots of RAF activity over us recently (Black Mountains). Definitely gearing up.

 

[vegster]

Its terrible that for all the history we have learned,there are still tyrants willing to cause untold death and suffering for their own egos.... if you are going to invade Ukraine mr Putin please lead your troops across the border, shirtless on your pony and then see if you still feel heroic ?

 

[Dibdab]

Like I've said before this war will be a godsend for both Biden and Boris. This is being orchestrated for the benefit of multiple ruling factions and a huge diversionary tactic to distract from the utter horror show that is infolding in domestic politics here, the US, China, etc