[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[portlock seagull]

To add to this, there’s zero certainty what they have will even work as there’s been no testing for over 30 years. Even if Putin were tempted to say “sod it, I’ll end everyone”, there’s a fair chance that it would only serve to end Russia.

Let’s hope that’s the case.

 

[Eric the meek]

TBH providing peace keepers isn’t as easy as it sounds. Russia would try and muddy the waters as much as possible and there would certainly be incident. Finding peace keepers isn’t going to be easy.

I saw a post on the outcome of the summit, and from memory, this was the result.

UK - ready to put peacekeeping troops on the ground
France - same as UK
Germany - it's premature to commit to it
Spain - I can't remember but I think it was 'no'
Poland - 'No'

That's so Europe isn't it?

 

[portlock seagull]

Russia are not, if they were, Ukraine would have fallen on day 3 of the invasion. Russia are a mess in financially as well as militarily. I mean he’s gone cap in hand to North Korea because he’s running out of troops and kit. It’s a shit show which is why he’s talking with bumble****.

What is bumble**** out of interest?!

 

[portlock seagull]

I saw a post on the outcome of the summit, and from memory, this was the result.

UK - ready to put peacekeeping troops on the ground
France - same as UK
Germany - it's premature to commit to it
Spain - I can't remember but I think it was 'no'
Poland - 'No'

That's so Europe isn't it?

Very much so, which is why I don’t put much faith in Nato resolving because all alliances suffer from this, always have and always will. Look how fragmented the situation is already: American acting alone, the other 31 broadly split into 3 camps: do something, don’t do something/yet and no comment

 

[SouthSaxon]

I saw a post on the outcome of the summit, and from memory, this was the result.

UK - ready to put peacekeeping troops on the ground
France - same as UK
Germany - it's premature to commit to it
Spain - I can't remember but I think it was 'no'
Poland - 'No'

That's so Europe isn't it?

Kind of understandable in Poland’s case given their troops would have to come from their own borders with Russia/Belorus. It needs to be looked at as defending Europe’s entire border with Russia, including Ukraine’s. Unfortunately, that’s also the point at which the scale of the task becomes clear.

 

[portlock seagull]

A question that comes to my mind, surrounds the mixed messaging that we've previously discussed, and which has resulted in several contradictions within Trump's team.

JD Vance's speech in Munich, downplayed the danger of Russia and China to Europe. Yesterday, Trump said the same thing on Fox News, saying he doubted that Russia would attack a Nato alliance member.

This is inconsistent with Trump's frequent and repeated demands for European nations to increase their Nato contributions to 5% of their GDP.
Can both of those positions be true? Is he not that sure of Russia's intentions? It would seem, to be generous, that one of those viewpoints is actually not that strongly held.

Interesting point although maybe we need to increase merely because we’ve under invested for so long it’s catch up time to meet new threats; and/or the US will reduce its commitments to Europe. I happen to agree with Obama, Biden and Trump that we need to take responsibility for our own security far more. Not just in troop numbers but manufacturing, technology and natural resources.

 

[portlock seagull]

Who are you counting as their immediate opponents?

Ukraine obviously, but particularly the land they currently hold. I’ve not read or heard any expert opinions that believe they can take back what was formally theirs even if they’re unable to take the rest of Ukraine presently. Suffice to say Russia’s resources are also greater than Ukraine’s from an attritional perspective.

 

[Eric the meek]

Interesting point although maybe we need to increase merely because we’ve under invested for so long it’s catch up time to meet new threats; and/or the US will reduce its commitments to Europe. I happen to agree with Obama, Biden and Trump that we need to take responsibility for our own security far more. Not just in troop numbers but manufacturing, technology and natural resources.

Yes, I think we're entering into a new era of Realpolitik as Paul Warburg described it, using a term I remember from the cold war days. I'm sure it's older than that.

Good point about the manufacturing. The markets are ahead of you, with BAe, Thales, Rheinmetall and Leonardo share prices all up sharply since market open yesterday. Another boat missed in the story of my pension.

 

[portlock seagull]

Yes, I think we're entering into a new era of Realpolitik as Paul Warburg described it, using a term I remember from the cold war days. I'm sure it's older than that.

Good point about the manufacturing. The markets are ahead of you, with BAe, Thales, Rheinmetall and Leonardo share prices all up sharply since market open yesterday. Another boat missed in the story of my pension.

Weltpolitik, Realpolitik…just old names for same old same old as you allude. I wouldn’t beat yourself up about those businesses by the way, my dad worked for several of and shares never seemed great after fall of iron curtain and it was just cost cutting after cost cutting. Extremely stressful last 15 years of his career. He was one of the great survivors though and by the end the most senior manager remaining from the years before. Number of employees went from 2500 to 350 or something like that.

 

[Eric the meek]

Suffice to say Russia’s resources are also greater than Ukraine’s from an attritional perspective.

Not if they're all on fire, they're not.

And not if the infrastructure to get them out of the ground and to the markets, is uneconomic to build.

And not if the customers they have pivoted to (China and India), want the products at a knockdown price, so that Russia makes little from them.

There's a reason that Russian troops are using motor bikes, donkeys, camels and North Koreans.

 

[portlock seagull]

Not if they're all on fire, they're not.

And not if the infrastructure to get them out of the ground and to the markets, is uneconomic to build.

And not if the customers they have pivoted to (China and India), want the products at a knockdown price, so that Russia makes little from them.

There's a reason that Russian troops are using motor bikes, donkeys, camels and North Koreans.

You’ve got to admire a bit of retro mobile troops and supply chain.

 

[raymondo]

Kind of understandable in Poland’s case given their troops would have to come from their own borders with Russia/Belorus. It needs to be looked at as defending Europe’s entire border with Russia, including Ukraine’s. Unfortunately, that’s also the point at which the scale of the task becomes clear.

Good point, I was wondering about Poland

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

What is bumble**** out of interest?!

It’s a childish name for Trump and as can be seen I can be very childish.

 

[Eric the meek]

Weltpolitik, Realpolitik…just old names for same old same old as you allude. I wouldn’t beat yourself up about those businesses by the way, my dad worked for several of and shares never seemed great after fall of iron curtain and it was just cost cutting after cost cutting. Extremely stressful last 15 years of his career. He was one of the great survivors though and by the end the most senior manager remaining from the years before. Number of employees went from 2500 to 350 or something like that.

Indeed. But I kind of missed my own boat, as I used to work for BAe back in the 1980s. A strange place, a bit like the civil service mentality. With fixed price MOD contracts, deadlines were not tight, and any old month would do. I remember someone lost half the test data for an anti-helicopter missile, and they used to warn us about the Russians hanging about in the pubs next to the site in Stevenage. (But we've already done that story on here).

 

[raymondo]

In the short term Russia is struggling with its economy and lack of military equipment. In the long term from a demographic point of view they are in serious trouble.

I think the invasion is part of their 'solution' to their democratic problem

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I saw a post on the outcome of the summit, and from memory, this was the result.

UK - ready to put peacekeeping troops on the ground
France - same as UK
Germany - it's premature to commit to it
Spain - I can't remember but I think it was 'no'
Poland - 'No'

That's so Europe isn't it?

German election this weekend - expect a change of position.

 

[Eric the meek]

It’s a childish name for Trump and as can be seen I can be very childish.

You'll fit right in on here then !

 

[beorhthelm]

You would have thought that, but Donald Tusk is reported to have ruled out putting Polish troops for peacekeeping, in yesterday's Paris summit. This was after the war ends though.

this is not a contradiction to the point made...

 

[hampshirebrightonboy]

I think the invasion is part of their 'solution' to their democratic problem

That makes sense if they took Ukraine very quickly - three days is often quoted. However, with a grinding war taking a village at a time they only end up with a few captured soldiers and very few older civillians that refuse to move. That's not going to solve their demographics.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

You'll fit right in on here then !

Why thank you, one does one’s best.