[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Triggaaar]

I can’t see these Russian/US talks lasting very long….

“The US says the talks are a first step to see if Russia is "serious" about ending the war, while Russia says the goal is to normalise relations with America.” BBC

The talks are a complete joke. Trump claimed they were to get peace. Everyone pointed out that that can't happen without Ukraine. Eventually he got the message, so now claims, as you say, that it's just to see if Russia are serious

How the f*** are they going to determine that? Russia will say 'we get Kursk back (because we can't take it back) and we keep everything we've taken, and Ukraine disarms, and never joins the EU or Nato', and Trump then decides whether or not that's serious. Do me a favour

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

The last administration did supply weapons to Ukraine and sanction the use of weapons on Russian soil, so that Ukraine could defend itself. It also imposed tariffs on Russia to weaken their war effort. These actions help Ukraine win, and eventually end the war. Trump is not currently trying to end the war, he's just playing at trying to be a leader. He's not even aware that a peace deal can't be struck without both parties at war. As you will see, the war will continue after his photo op in Saudi.

Absolutely. It will prove too difficult for someone with the attention span of a toddler and so once his nappy has been changed he’ll go off and cheat at golf.

 

[raymondo]

The talks are a complete joke. Trump claimed they were to get peace. Everyone pointed out that that can't happen without Ukraine. Eventually he got the message, so now claims, as you say, that it's just to see if Russia are serious

How the f*** are they going to determine that? Russia will say 'we get Kursk back (because we can't take it back) and we keep everything we've taken, and Ukraine disarms, and never joins the EU or Nato', and Trump then decides whether or not that's serious. Do me a favour

Exactly, Russia is only serious about taking all of Ukraine, then the next country, and about lying...all the time lying.

 

[essbee1]

I'll never forgive the US and certainly never trust the US again if it sells Ukraine a pup.

 

[portlock seagull]

So you're saying we can't commit anything to a peackeeping force and our nuclear deterrent doesn't work and can be disregarded?

We can commit something, but it would be woefully inadequate to the point of ineffectivenss. Our nuclear deterrent isn’t much of if it doesn’t work I guess?

 

[portlock seagull]

Russia has proven that they're not crazy enough to use them. They've stated many conditions which would lead to their use, and once those conditions have been met, nothing has happened. That's because their nukes are only any use as a threat, they're not actually any good as a weapon unless your goal is world destruction. Putin and his allies have too much to lose for that.

Logically and rationally I’d agree. But can Putin be trusted when it comes to mutual destruction? I’m not so confident.

 

[portlock seagull]

In the short term Russia is struggling with its economy and lack of military equipment. In the long term from a demographic point of view they are in serious trouble.

Maybe, however they are much stronger than their immediate opponents.

 

[hampshirebrightonboy]

Maybe, however they are much stronger than their immediate opponents.

Maybe not

 

[Titanic]

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Maybe, however they are much stronger than their immediate opponents.

Russia are not, if they were, Ukraine would have fallen on day 3 of the invasion. Russia are a mess in financially as well as militarily. I mean he’s gone cap in hand to North Korea because he’s running out of troops and kit. It’s a shit show which is why he’s talking with bumble****.

 

[Triggaaar]

Logically and rationally I’d agree. But can Putin be trusted when it comes to mutual destruction? I’m not so confident.

Yes. Firstly he's been in power for decades and hasn't destroyed the world. Secondly, he can't fire them on his own. Thirdly, we should do the same things regardless whether or not they'd use them. Because if Russia wanted to use them, the only thing that would prevent them is giving them the whole of Europe. No thanks.

 

[SouthSaxon]

Yes. Firstly he's been in power for decades and hasn't destroyed the world. Secondly, he can't fire them on his own. Thirdly, we should do the same things regardless whether or not they'd use them. Because if Russia wanted to use them, the only thing that would prevent them if giving them the whole of Europe. No thanks.

To add to this, there’s zero certainty what they have will even work as there’s been no testing for over 30 years. Even if Putin were tempted to say “sod it, I’ll end everyone”, there’s a fair chance that it would only serve to end Russia.

 

[happypig]

Yes. Firstly he's been in power for decades and hasn't destroyed the world. Secondly, he can't fire them on his own. Thirdly, we should do the same things regardless whether or not they'd use them. Because if Russia wanted to use them, the only thing that would prevent them if giving them the whole of Europe. No thanks.

Exactly. There's a heap of difference between a missile silo or submarine commander being told his, and everyone elses, family have been killed in a nuclear strike and being asked to fire his missiles "in cold blood".
If France (who have an independant nuclear force) were to say to Putin "withdraw or we will fire a nuclear missile", he would KNOW they are bluffing. For the same reason we know he is, it's the ultimate threat but it's too big to be taken seriously.

 

[Eric the meek]

Exactly. There's a heap of difference between a missile silo or submarine commander being told his, and everyone elses, family have been killed in a nuclear strike and being asked to fire his missiles "in cold blood".
If France (who have an independant nuclear force) were to say to Putin "withdraw or we will fire a nuclear missile", he would KNOW they are bluffing. For the same reason we know he is, it's the ultimate threat but it's too big to be taken seriously.

Several months ago, someone counted the number of nuclear threats Putin had made, and listed them. There were 165.

 

[Triggaaar]

Maybe, however they are much stronger than their immediate opponents.

Who are you counting as their immediate opponents?

 

[Eric the meek]

A question that comes to my mind, surrounds the mixed messaging that we've previously discussed, and which has resulted in several contradictions within Trump's team.

JD Vance's speech in Munich, downplayed the danger of Russia and China to Europe. Yesterday, Trump said the same thing on Fox News, saying he doubted that Russia would attack a Nato alliance member.

This is inconsistent with Trump's frequent and repeated demands for European nations to increase their Nato contributions to 5% of their GDP.
Can both of those positions be true? Is he not that sure of Russia's intentions? It would seem, to be generous, that one of those viewpoints is actually not that strongly held.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Who are you counting as their immediate opponents?

He cannot open a second front when he’s getting his arse handed to him on the first front.
Why people think Russia is the milItaly giant of yester year is beyond me. They’d annexed a third of the Ukraine prior to the invasion and still couldn’t win. The fact that they couldn’t take out a much smaller and less equipped country in 3 days tell you that they’ll never take Ukraine whilst Ukraine has access to kit.

The one country that would hand Putin a very bloody nose is Poland. They are very much up for a scrap with the old enemy.

 

[Eric the meek]

The war against Russia's shadow fleet continues.

'According to Ukrainska Pravda, Seajewel has, on at least three occasions in recent years, visited the Russian port of Novorossiysk before moving on to Turkey and subsequently to European ports.'

Ship violating sanctions by transporting Russian oil to Europe struck by explosion in Italy

Two explosions occurred in the city of Savona in northern Italy on the moored oil tanker Seajewel, which Ukrainska Pravda has found was transporting oil from Russia to Europe despite sanctions.

www.pravda.com.ua

Italian incident with suspected Russian shadow tanker - Decode39

A recent explosion damaged the Maltese-flagged tanker Seajewel in Savona, leaving a large tear but no casualties or spills. Investigators suspect an explosive device, while media reports suggest a link to Russian shadow fleets involved in smuggling oil into Europe

decode39.com

 

[Eric the meek]

The one country that would hand Putin a very bloody nose is Poland. They are very much up for a scrap with the old enemy.

You would have thought that, but Donald Tusk is reported to have ruled out putting Polish troops for peacekeeping, in yesterday's Paris summit. This was after the war ends though.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

You would have thought that, but Donald Tusk is reported to have ruled out putting Polish troops for peacekeeping, in yesterday's Paris summit. This was after the war ends though.

TBH providing peace keepers isn’t as easy as it sounds. Russia would try and muddy the waters as much as possible and there would certainly be incident. Finding peace keepers isn’t going to be easy.