[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

I have been thinking the same but worse, add in the tariffs and threats it's as if Europe is also at war with the US.

Sure. Trump is at war with all his allies.

 

[Triggaaar]

TBH providing peace keepers isn’t as easy as it sounds. Russia would try and muddy the waters as much as possible and there would certainly be incident. Finding peace keepers isn’t going to be easy.

A peacekeeping force is practically a non starter. Russia would definitely attack it, and claim it was Ukraine.

The solution is to increase arms to Ukraine and increase sanctions until Russia gives up.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

A peacekeeping force is practically a non starter. Russia would definitely attack it, and claim it was Ukraine.

The solution is to increase arms to Ukraine and increase sanctions until Russia gives up.

I agree this is the best option but I'm not sure it reaches all the way up to the level of solution.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

I share your concerns but think (hope) that it’s too early to call. Trump and his administration may be totally incompetent and being played by Russia. Or Trump could be playing Putin in a cleverly choreographed strategy - after all, he loves stirring the pot and there’s the old saying about keeping your enemies close. However I won’t ask you to vote on this!

Absolutely, we don't know yet. However there us a third possibility where neither Putin nor Trump are playing each other. Instead, they could be collaborating to ensure a mutually beneficial outcome. Especially as Trump loves Russia and always has done. Basically, I think he's a traitor doing traitorous things.

 

[portlock seagull]

Indeed. But I kind of missed my own boat, as I used to work for BAe back in the 1980s. A strange place, a bit like the civil service mentality. With fixed price MOD contracts, deadlines were not tight, and any old month would do. I remember someone lost half the test data for an anti-helicopter missile, and they used to warn us about the Russians hanging about in the pubs next to the site in Stevenage. (But we've already done that story on here).

My father worked for MOD c/o Thales and Racal mostly, electronics for RAF and Navy. I can remember him coming home with brief cases handcuffed to his arm with gases that would destroy the contents if forced open. Anyway, I can imagine breaches in security are pretty common place these days, albeit maybe not down the pub anymore. One advantage most of our enemies have is they have relatively fewer foreign nationals or of ethnic descent; the ability to blend in is easier here I guess. Regardless, most hacking can probably be done from the comfort of an arm chair in Moscow so not sure there's much call for 'Red Squirrel' type agents sat on a park bench in a Mackintosh. Besides, you also can't get a broadsheet newspaper too hide behind that easily these days

 

[raymondo]

I agree this is the best option but I'm not sure it reaches all the way up to the level of solution.

I think it's a short/ medium term solution. Longer term... Europe needs to make itself a fortress against Russia. That may need leaving NATO and including Ukraine in a new European defense force.
Trump doesn't seem to value current NATO allies anyway, so fxck off US.

 

[portlock seagull]

A peacekeeping force is practically a non starter. Russia would definitely attack it, and claim it was Ukraine.

The solution is to increase arms to Ukraine and increase sanctions until Russia gives up.

Ideally, and what further sanctions can practically be applied / why haven't they been to date?

 

[portlock seagull]

I think it's a short/ medium term solution. Longer term... Europe needs to make itself a fortress against Russia. That may need leaving NATO and including Ukraine in a new European defense force.
Trump doesn't seem to value current NATO allies anyway, so fxck off US.

I do think this is a time where Europe is being forced to take more responsibility for its own security, as I believe it should, and a new Treaty with stringent rules of membership might be formed consequently. The US is pretty focused on the Pacific, Trump has made that clear, so maybe America wants out? Nothing is forever after all. Empires rise and fall and all that

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

My father worked for MOD c/o Thales and Racal mostly, electronics for RAF and Navy. I can remember him coming home with brief cases handcuffed to his arm with gases that would destroy the contents if forced open. Anyway, I can imagine breaches in security are pretty common place these days, albeit maybe not down the pub anymore. One advantage most of our enemies have is they have relatively fewer foreign nationals or of ethnic descent; the ability to blend in is easier here I guess. Regardless, most hacking can probably be done from the comfort of an arm chair in Moscow so not sure there's much call for 'Red Squirrel' type agents sat on a park bench in a Mackintosh. Besides, you also can't get a broadsheet newspaper too hide behind that easily these days

I work in defence and security breaches are NOT ‘pretty common’. Security is very very tight!

 

[SouthSaxon]

Trump doesn’t do alliances, which means the US no longer does alliances. People (Europe) need to stop thinking in those terms.

He’ll do a deal with someone if he sees a personal benefit in doing so. Mostly that means money, but it definitely doesn’t mean for the greater good.

Once that benefit dries up, or what he wants changes, he’ll drop that deal and make a new one with someone else without a second thought for how it affects others.

As with Canada recently, he’ll claim that the old deal, which he designed, is the worse deal of all time and that he’s going to make a new one, which will be the greatest, most beautiful deal of all time.

 

[Triggaaar]

I think it's a short/ medium term solution. Longer term... Europe needs to make itself a fortress against Russia. That may need leaving NATO and including Ukraine in a new European defense force.
Trump doesn't seem to value current NATO allies anyway, so fxck off US.

You're talking long term and Trump is only there for 4 years.

 

[Eric the meek]

You're talking long term and Trump is only there for 4 years.

I can see a Trump-Putin deal along the lines of:

'don't attack anyone for four years. Don't do anything while I'm in power. What you do if the Democrats get in after me, is up to you'.

 

[SouthSaxon]

The Danes appear to understand the urgency, which is at least a straw to clutch at today.

 

[Bodian]

I still don't quite understand how the US and Russia can 'negotiate'.

I can understand how the US could be the intermediary to help negotiate between the warring parties (Ukraine & Russia).

But by holding direct negotaitions between the two countries - doesn't this just say to Russia 'Yes, Putin was right - this is a war between Russia and the US (the west)'

 

[Eric the meek]

Have we all misread the room? How and why has this happened?

 

[fly high]

I still don't quite understand how the US and Russia can 'negotiate'.

I can understand how the US could be the intermediary to help negotiate between the warring parties (Ukraine & Russia).

But by holding direct negotaitions between the two countries - doesn't this just say to Russia 'Yes, Putin was right - this is a war between Russia and the US (the west)'

Because it's really all about money "In the longer term, both countries want to explore further geopolitical and economic cooperation, with Rubio praising “extraordinary opportunities,” but only if they agree on a peace deal for Ukraine first, the US said"

 

[raymondo]

You're talking long term and Trump is only there for 4 years.

Well Trig, currently he's only there for 4 years, yes. But what if one of his flunkies gets in (e.g. Vance) , then nothing changes.
If Trump continues at this momentum of destroying old allegiances, then Europe needs to be brave, bin off the US, and invite Ukraine into a European defense force. Maybe I'm dreaming

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Have we all misread the room? How and why has this happened?

My read on this, which as we all know is likely to be bollocks, is that Putin is a man whose empire (Russia) is based upon his ‘strongman persona’, which means him going cap in hand to the old enemy is almost a sign of defeat. He is effectively showing massive weakness.

 

[SouthSaxon]

Have we all misread the room? How and why has this happened?

My inexpert take is that it’s unlikely Putin/Lavrov would be offering up such glowing positivity about a potential ceasefire if their war was going to plan. It’s a fairly strong signal of how weak their position probably is.

 

[raymondo]

Have we all misread the room? How and why has this happened?

The replies say that peace is, in the short term, more of a danger to the Russian economy than continuing war.
I dunno.