[News] Middle East conflict

[Vin]

@Triggaaar @Zeberdi you two should go for a beer together and have a discussion.

 

[Zeberdi]

@Triggaaar @Zeberdi you two should go for a beer together and have a discussion.

You could just do what most people do and put you hands over your ears - or put us on ignore

 

[Triggaaar]

Firstly, get you facts right - you are really off the mark here and betraying a lack of knowledge

You're wrong and your attempts at patronising won't help.

I know what Gaza is and whether you're referring to the Gaza Strip or city, it is not the whole of Palestine. And regardless of which part of Gaza, it is not currently Israel's policy to occupy it, so I'm not sure what your point is.

Secondly, while Netanyahu says one thing, he is beholden to his extreme coalition partners that prop up his permiership.

And I'd like the world to stand against Israel's expansion, but it's still not correct to say that their policy is to take over the whole of Palestine.

This is the policy of the Lukid Party of which he has been a member and leader for decades

“The right of the Jewish people to the land of Israel is eternal and indisputable…

And equally you'll find opponents who deny Israel's right to exist at all. Neither point of view is just and neither should be supported.

 

[Triggaaar]

This is what I don’t understand about your PoV that Russia wants a war to escalate in the ME - why would Russia support an Israel v Iran War (which is what we were originally talking about when comparing who was the most risk to global stability in terms of escalating regional warfare) which would tax Iran’s military resources when it is Iran (and others) that is supplying weapons to Russia?

If the whole world stopped supplying Ukraine and Russia, that would benefit Russia. Yes, they would lose some support from Iran, but Ukraine stand to lose more, which would benefit Russia.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

The west need to stop arming him.

And that is where the problem lies. If Israel is not armed then they get wiped of the face of the planet …..
personally I think his days as PM are numbered, as ultimately he is responsible for the expansion of the settlers and the intelligence failings that led to Israel being caught out by Hamas.

 

[Zeberdi]

You're wrong and your attempts at patronising won't help.

I know what Gaza is and whether you're referring to the Gaza Strip or city, it is not the whole of Palestine. And regardless of which part of Gaza, it is not currently Israel's policy to occupy it, so I'm not sure what your point is.

Literally can’t argue with someone who doesn’t even know what they said - you clearly said Gaza was a City and yes, the Policy of Greater Israel is exactly that - to take over the whole of Palestine and not recognise independence for the Palestinian territories but subsume them under a full Israeli administration. Netanyahu have NEVER supported a two state solution and likely never will. He is the leader of a far right party that has never recognised a two state solution either.

I also made it really clear that the West Bank and East Jerusalem were part of Palestine too so of course I didn’t say Gaza (the enclave) was the ‘whole of Palestine’.

it's still not correct to say that their policy is to take over the whole of Palestine.

Sorry if you think I was being patronising you are simply wrong to suggest that this is not the Lukid Party’s policy and thus Bibi’s - I literally just posted an excerpt of the party manifesto for you because you were complaining I wasn’t backing up what I was saying. This isn’t a matter of opinion, but fact - Netanyahu is a far right leader and the first one of Isreal not to commit to a two state solution but rather wants Isreal’s borders to extend to include the OTP ie the whole of the lands referred to as ‘Palestine’ in the original Balfour agreements. Hamas currently are saying the want Israel to pull back to the 1967 borders.

And equally you'll find opponents who deny Israel's right to exist at all. Neither point of view is just and neither should be supported.

Agreed - But this is Netanyahu the leader of Israel, the Lukid Party policy (Netanyahu‘s Party) - you keep repeatedly saying it is not the current policy of Israel to claim the whole of Palestine but it is - you can’t dismiss his position on Palestine as a few minority opponents- they are the ruling Party and crucially, it is feeding in to how he is conducting the war against Hamas and Hezbollah in the OPT (including the West Bank)


I need to call a halt to this because it‘s tiring and we are going round in circles - but I will include more links for you:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-brandishes-map-of-israel-that-includes-west-bank-and-gaza-at-un-speech/

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240119-netanyahu-only-greater-israel-will-exist-from-river-to-the-sea/

A report below that doesn’t even recognise West Bank as occupied territory to begin with so justifies annexation of the West Bank into Israel - btw used by the now current Israeli Ambassador to Britain when she was in charge of building settlements on the West Bank as Housing minister in Netanyahu’s far right Lukid Party - she herself is a self-declared Religious Zionist who supports a Greater Israel and does not subscribe to a two state solution. ( Recently both her and Sue Braverman came out and said Israel was providing plenty of aid and support to Palestinians - so why are children already dying of starvation?)

Levy Report Resurrects “Greater Israel” - Middle East Policy Council

Middle East In Focus A committee appointed by the Netanyahu government to examine the legality of Israel’s claim to Judea and Samaria (known outside of Israel as the West Bank, minus East Jerusalem) has come out with its final report. The report, a nonbinding legal recommendation, declares that...

mepc.org

 

[Triggaaar]

Literally can’t argue with someone who doesn’t even know what they said - you clearly said Gaza was a City

Gaza is a city Yes, the Gaza strip is also referred to as Gaza, but the point was that neither of those are the whole of Palestine.

I also made it really clear that the West Bank and East Jerusalem were part of Palestine too so of course I didn’t say Gaza (the enclave) was the ‘whole of Palestine’.

I know you didn't, I didn't say otherwise.

Sorry if you think I was being patronising you are simply wrong to suggest that this is not the Lukid Party’s policy

You weren't trying to patronise me about the policy, you were trying to patronise me about the difference between Gaza the city and the Greater Gaza area, when it's not relevant to the fact that Gaza (pick either) isn't the whole of Palestine.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240119-netanyahu-only-greater-israel-will-exist-from-river-to-the-sea/

Fair enough.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

When I have the time I'll find the BBC report on the statements but here's Reuters to start with :

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-ministers-join-ultranationalist-conference-urging-gaza-resettlement-2024-01-29/

Which just goes to show that every country has their f***ing idiots. The settlers need to be booted out of Gaza and left to the Palestinians.

 

[Zeberdi]

Which just goes to show that every country has their f***ing idiots. The settlers need to be booted out of Gaza and left to the Palestinians.

just to clarify - and not trying to be patronising but there aren’t any Jewish settlers in Gaza - not since they were cleared in 2005 under Ariel Sharon’s Disengagement Policy of Gaza.

Every Country certainly doesn’t have an illegal occupying force attempting to annex land by killing innocent civilians and commandeering their homes. The settlers in the Occupied West Bank are not just ‘idiots’ ( they are) but they are also part of a concerted settlement expansion policy by the Netanyahu Government - no one will boot them out - least of all the current Israeli Government. It’s doubtful the Israeli Government will even concede any land claimed by the settlements in the West Bank as part of a peace plan either.

There seems to be quite an entrenched view in some quarters, that the West Bank is a legitimate part of Israel. I guess when a country has occupied land for a generation, built homes and set up businesses on it, it becomes harder to convince subsequent generations that this wasn’t their land in the first place

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

just to clarify - and not trying to be patronising but there aren’t any Jewish settlers in Gaza - not since they were cleared in 2005 under Ariel Sharon’s Disengagement Policy of Gaza.

Every Country certainly doesn’t have an illegal occupying force attempting to annex land by killing innocent civilians and commandeering their homes. The settlers in the Occupied West Bank are not just ‘idiots’ ( they are) but they are also part of a concerted settlement expansion policy by the Netanyahu Government - no one will boot them out - least of all the current Israeli Government. It’s doubtful the Israeli Government will even concede any land claimed by the settlements in the West Bank as part of a peace plan either.

There seems to be quite an entrenched view in some quarters, that the West Bank is a legitimate part of Israel. I guess when a country has occupied land for a generation, built homes and set up businesses on it, it becomes harder to convince subsequent generations that this wasn’t their land in the first place

You are correct and I’m wrong ( not for the first time and certainly not the last). I meant the West Bank.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I’m not convinced Iran had hoped to achieve anything more than spread fear and terror of potential escalation with such a limited retaliation.

From what I heard on the wireless (5Live) from a defensive expert, it seems Iran had given prior detailed warning on what was going to happen. The operation to bring down the weapons was vast, complex and needed a lot of organisation and planning to reach a success rate of 99%.

It’s probable that the allies knew how many weapons were being sent over, launch sites and launch times. Pretty smart by Iran and I’m convinced that they don’t want an escalation and were happy that there were no casualties that would have meant a military response was certain.

Note that the U.N, U.S and U.K are all calling for de-escalation. If the allies were not given hugely detailed forewarnings of this and there had been casualties, I suspect the U.S would be up for some revenge strikes on Iran.

 

[Hotchilidog]

From what I heard on the wireless (5Live) from a defensive expert, it seems Iran had given prior detailed warning on what was going to happen. The operation to bring down the weapons was vast, complex and needed a lot of organisation and planning to reach a success rate of 99%.

It’s probable that the allies knew how many weapons were being sent over, launch sites and launch times. Pretty smart by Iran and I’m convinced that they don’t want an escalation and were happy that there were no casualties that would have meant a military response was certain.

Note that the U.N, U.S and U.K are all calling for de-escalation. If the allies were not given hugely detailed forewarnings of this and there had been casualties, I suspect the U.S would be up for some revenge strikes on Iran.

Pretty much this. Iran had to be seen to be doing something, but they have no interest in starting a full scale war, Biden has no interest in one either. Israel get to claim the "win", Iran makes it point and I suspect that Netanyahu's conversations with Biden may become slightly more tetchy.

In other news, settler thugs continued to rampage through the West Bank and no-one bats an eyelid.

 

[Zeberdi]

From what I heard on the wireless (5Live) from a defensive expert, it seems Iran had given prior detailed warning on what was going to happen. The operation to bring down the weapons was vast, complex and needed a lot of organisation and planning to reach a success rate of 99%.

It’s probable that the allies knew how many weapons were being sent over, launch sites and launch times. Pretty smart by Iran and I’m convinced that they don’t want an escalation and were happy that there were no casualties that would have meant a military response was certain.

Note that the U.N, U.S and U.K are all calling for de-escalation. If the allies were not given hugely detailed forewarnings of this and there had been casualties, I suspect the U.S would be up for some revenge strikes on Iran.

Spot on - that was my thinking entirely.

Just hoping now that Israel doesn’t respond in attacking Iran directly - can’t see Netanyahu launching an open attack without the backing of the US but they may try the clandestine approach - so that’s something to keep an eye on. Iran will win this round imo, they forewarned, acted with restraint and given teeth to a deterrent should Isreal think of responding with a direct attack

Interesting articles

First - Israel’s ‘Shadow war’ with Iran - clandestine and not so clandestine

Ismail Haniyeh killed: The shadowy history of Israel’s attacks in Iran

From assassinations and raids to cyberattacks, Israel-linked plots have targeted Iran for years.

www.aljazeera.com

And from the NYT - How Iran’s attack has changed the dynamics in the ME

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/14/world/middleeast/israel-response-iran-attack.html?unlocked_article_code=1.kk0.cc9V.1DeC591eqVAa&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&ugrp=u

 

[Zeberdi]

ISRAEL RESPONSE TO IRAN ATTACK

Israel has launched missile strikes on Iran in response to last Saturday’s attack.

Israel-Iran tensions updates: Calls for calm as ‘drones downed’ in Isfahan

Tensions have soared in the Middle East more than six months into Israel’s war on Gaza.

www.aljazeera.com

Middle East latest: Hezbollah vows to continue resistance after ceasefire

Hezbollah has vowed to continue its resistance and support Palestinians on the day its ceasefire deal with Israel came into effect. Thousands of Lebanese rushed to return to the south of the country as fighting paused - prompting the Israelis to impose a curfew.

news.sky.com

As far as ‘disarming‘ Israel to protect Gazans, Israel would be existentially vulnerable to the ‘Axis of Resistance’, more so now than ever before - Netanyahu has seen to that more than any other leader in Israel’s history. The West are hogtied by an alliance that is 75 years old but it is that alliance that is enabling Netanyahu to escalate and broaden the current conflict in the ME.

 

[Zeberdi]

Both Israel and Iran now downplaying Israel’s attack last night suggesting that diplomacy in the region is having an impact on both Countries for the time being. A stepping back from the precipice for now or at least the rhetoric is less escalatory.

 

[Boys 9d]

I assume to show their neutrality the US and UK aircraft shot down some of the Israeli drones?

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Both Israel and Iran now downplaying Israel’s attack last night suggesting that diplomacy in the region is having an impact on both Countries for the time being. A stepping back from the precipice for now or at least the rhetoric is less escalatory.

You get the distinct feeling that both sides are now just lobbing symbolic gesture amounts of weaponry at each other. Middle East equivalent of opposing football fans luzzing rubber matting at each other in Brighton station. Long may it last

 

[Zeberdi]

You get the distinct feeling that both sides are now just lobbing symbolic gesture amounts of weaponry at each other. Middle East equivalent of opposing football fans luzzing rubber matting at each other in Brighton station. Long may it last

Yes, certainly seems like it - bizarre way to de-escalate - retaliate with less and less weapons until they stop - bit of a risky strategy though!

 

[Triggaaar]

There seems to be quite an entrenched view in some quarters, that the West Bank is a legitimate part of Israel. I guess when a country has occupied land for a generation, built homes and set up businesses on it, it becomes harder to convince subsequent generations that this wasn’t their land in the first place

Like Russia occupying Ukraine, it should never be accepted.

 

[Algernon]

I think this last action is Israel's way of indicating they can reach Isfahan's nuclear reactors if they want.
Passive aggression.