[News] Middle East conflict

[drew]

This ^
The whole situation, frankly

Exactly. Hamas hadn't a hope in hell of defeating Israel but they were supported by an extremist leader in Iran who himself is almost certainly being funded/prompted by Putin who could do with some distraction by the West over Ukraine. This is all compounded by an extremist leader in Israel, hell bent on retaining power at whatever cost.

 

[drew]

Maybe this is as far as the Iranian retaliation goes for the Israeli strike that killed an Iranian commander in Damascus? For home consumption they need to be seen to be retaliating, but at the same time they must be fully aware that Israel and its allies are fully capable of neutralising that retaliation. Call it a draw?

Let's hope so but Netanyahu also has a domestic audience he wants to impress.

 

[Zeberdi]

Apparently they have informed the UN that they consider that matter closed ….. or in other words … it didn’t work.

Not sure what you mean by ‘it didn’t work’? This attack last night was a warning shot across the bow - Iran warned it was planning a ‘measured’ retaliation for Israel bombing the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Without US, RAF and Jordanian involvement taking out drones and shooting down cruise and ballistic missiles before they reached Israeli airspace last night, some of the massive barrage of highly sophisticated missiles and drones (along with smaller missile attacks from Hezbollah on Israel’s Northern border), would have got through Israel’s defences and caused significant damage. I believe a few actually did but hit military targets with no casualties.

That was the message - Israel cannot take on Iran without escalating this into a direct confrontation involving the US/other Western allies. As a significant response but one that hopefully won’t spark another retaliatory tit for tat against Iran directly, it was quite successful from Iran’s point of view - they have flexed their military muscles while minimising the risk of further escalation and the regime has saved face by ‘roaring loudly’ at what they see as ‘the aggressor’.

The fact that Iran has even launched a missile/drone attack directly at Israel has brought the ME to a very dangerous escalation point indeed. This was the first time Iran had ever directly fired missiles at Israel and it remains to be seen whether Israel will respond in kind by launching a direct attack on Iran sparking an even bigger retaliation..

 

[Zeberdi]

Let's hope so but Netanyahu also has a domestic audience he wants to impress.

Maybe a decade ago and certainly prior to 7/10 but Netanyahu‘s ‘domestic audience’ now wants him out of power as soon as possible. The people he is ‘trying to impress’ (if that’s the right expression?) are the fascist extremists who hold the balance of power in his coalition government - appeasing them is the only thing keeping him in power and out of prison for years of corruption. The majority of Israelis no longer believe Bibi is the leader to defend and protect Israel from Iran but the leader who himself is the existential threat to Israel - last night’s attack will do nothing to allay those fears. October 7 was seen as a massive security failure, his war in Gaza is seen as a massive failure both to destroy Hamas or get the hostages back and the attack last night will convince even more Israelis that Netanyahu must go.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Not sure what you mean by ‘it didn’t work’? This attack last night was a warning shot across the bow if Israel continues it’s bombardment in Gaza, continues targeting Iranian infrastructure in Syria and Lebanon and what Iran warned it was planning in a ‘measured’ retaliation for Israel bombing the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Without US, RAF and Jordanian involvement taking out drones and shooting down cruise and ballistic missiles before they reached Israeli airspace last night, some of the massive barrage of highly sophisticated missiles and drones (along with smaller missile attacks from Hezbollah on Israel’s Northern border), would have got through Israel’s defences and caused significant damage. I believe a few actually did but hit military targets with no casualties.

Iran does not want a full blown war with Israel but it certainly has the capability to do so - the scale of this retaliation was unexpected in that it massive in size, it caused widespread fear in the ME and in the West that things had spiralled out of control, forced Israelis into bunkers in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv and closed airspace throughout the ME and stretched Israel’s defences to their limit. As a significant response but one that hopefully won’t spark another retaliatory tit for tat against Iran directly, it was quite successful from Iran’s point of view - they have flexed their military muscles while minimising the risk of further escalation and the regime has saved face by ‘roaring loudly’ at what they see as ‘the aggressor’.

Make no mistake, the fact that Iran has even launched a missile/drone attack directly at Israel has brought the ME to a very dangerous escalation point indeed. This was the first time Iran had ever directly fired missiles at Israel and it remains to be seen whether Israel will respond in kind by launching a direct attack on Iran sparking an even bigger retaliation..

I agree that this will play exceptionally well to the Iranian public and elements of the Muslim community further afield as well as in Russia. But how likely is it that Israel won’t respond? Things could get out of hand very quickly now.

“This could still get a whole lot worse. Israel has vowed "a significant response" to Iran’s overnight missile attack.

But what form will that take? Israel’s military and its war cabinet have been debating exactly that.

The most likely targets will be the Iranian bases that launched those missiles.

But Israel could well decide to go further and strike major Iranian military bases and training centres of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps across the country, inflicting human casualties as well as material damage.” Frank Gardner, BBC.

 

[aolstudios]

It’s what he wanted but the result most certainly isn’t … he wanted the Middle East to be in all out war today … the ****.

True

 

[aolstudios]

I agree that this will play exceptionally well to the Iranian public and elements of the Muslim community further afield as well as in Russia. But how likely is it that Israel won’t respond? Things could get out of hand very quickly now.

“This could still get a whole lot worse. Israel has vowed "a significant response" to Iran’s overnight missile attack.

But what form will that take? Israel’s military and its war cabinet have been debating exactly that.

The most likely targets will be the Iranian bases that launched those missiles.

But Israel could well decide to go further and strike major Iranian military bases and training centres of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps across the country, inflicting human casualties as well as material damage.” Frank Gardner, BBC.

A significant amount of the Iranian public are very anti regime & broadly pro Israel. The view in Iran of the regime's use of the 'Palestinian cause' is cynical at the very best & their treatment of their citizens is almost incomparably savage

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Not sure what you mean by ‘it didn’t work’? This attack last night was a warning shot across the bow - Iran warned it was planning a ‘measured’ retaliation for Israel bombing the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Without US, RAF and Jordanian involvement taking out drones and shooting down cruise and ballistic missiles before they reached Israeli airspace last night, some of the massive barrage of highly sophisticated missiles and drones (along with smaller missile attacks from Hezbollah on Israel’s Northern border), would have got through Israel’s defences and caused significant damage. I believe a few actually did but hit military targets with no casualties.

That was the message - Israel cannot take on Iran without escalating this into a direct confrontation involving the US/other Western allies. As a significant response but one that hopefully won’t spark another retaliatory tit for tat against Iran directly, it was quite successful from Iran’s point of view - they have flexed their military muscles while minimising the risk of further escalation and the regime has saved face by ‘roaring loudly’ at what they see as ‘the aggressor’.

The fact that Iran has even launched a missile/drone attack directly at Israel has brought the ME to a very dangerous escalation point indeed. This was the first time Iran had ever directly fired missiles at Israel and it remains to be seen whether Israel will respond in kind by launching a direct attack on Iran sparking an even bigger retaliation..

Iran wanted destruction. They wanted pictures of destroyed buildings and burning fires that they could proudly show their people. They didn’t get it. Yes it was a very dangerous escalation but instead of showing strength it was a failure. It should be remembered that this isn’t just about Israel or Palestine this was also showing the other Arab neighbours just how strong Iran is. It failed!
The west does however need to sit on Israel and point out that we help defend you so don’t do anything we consider stupid.
they also need to point out that Palestinians aren’t going to go away, so stop the encroaching settlements and work out a sensible solution.

 

[Questions]

I’ve just ordered an Anderson shelter from Howdens

 

[Eric the meek]

I’ve just ordered an Anderson shelter from Howdens

You might want to check your order.

I've just entered 'Anderson shelter' in Howdens search engine, and I got 150 results back

Search Result

www.howdens.com

(B&Q brought back 6013 results).

 

[Zeberdi]

Iran wanted destruction. They wanted pictures of destroyed buildings and burning fires that they could proudly show their people. They didn’t get it. Yes it was a very dangerous escalation but instead of showing strength it was a failure. It should be remembered that this isn’t just about Israel or Palestine this was also showing the other Arab neighbours just how strong Iran is. It failed!
The west does however need to sit on Israel and point out that we help defend you so don’t do anything we consider stupid.
they also need to point out that Palestinians aren’t going to go away, so stop the encroaching settlements and work out a sensible solution.

Is this opinion or fact? Do you have sources for this?

Not to see that attack for what it is, and what provoked it, is dangerously underestimating the seriousness of the situation. This is no longer a conflict of proxies - Israel made sure of that by directly attacking an Iranian embassy.

Btw - At the moment, we only have Israel’s word for it that there were no damaged buildings or, ‘fire on the ground’ - that information as expected would be controlled by the Israeli propaganda machine.

I do agree that the fact the US and UK/Jordan helped Israel out, gives them a stronger platform for urging restraint/a ceasefire in Gaza. However, let‘s see how Netanyahu responds now to Iran - he’s ignored the US and every UN resolution so far with his actions in Gaza, so I’m not holding my breath he is going to start listening now.

 

[Zeberdi]

I agree that this will play exceptionally well to the Iranian public and elements of the Muslim community further afield as well as in Russia. But how likely is it that Israel won’t respond? Things could get out of hand very quickly now.

“This could still get a whole lot worse. Israel has vowed "a significant response" to Iran’s overnight missile attack.

But what form will that take? Israel’s military and its war cabinet have been debating exactly that.

The most likely targets will be the Iranian bases that launched those missiles.

But Israel could well decide to go further and strike major Iranian military bases and training centres of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps across the country, inflicting human casualties as well as material damage.” Frank Gardner, BBC.

Yes spot on - as I said last night, the real risk of any direct retaliation by Iran for the embassy bombing, was not how much damage Iran would do from a pre-warned limited drone/missile strike - but what kind of response this triggers from Netanyahu to escalate even further - IMO, Netanyahu is as much liability as Putin is - they both have expansionist aspirations, don’t care for their own people and are more than happy to take all of us to the brink of regional/even global war to achieve their objectives.

Netanyahu and Putin must both be stopped - God knows what will happen if Trump joins them as a global leader on the international stage with his documented full support of Bibi’s and Putin’s respective agendas in Gaza and Ukraine

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Is this opinion or fact? Do you have sources for this?

I am concerned tbh that people think anything less than a full blown escalation into a war between Israel and Iran is a failure on Iran’s part. It is Netanyahu that is trying to escalate the Hamas/Israel war into a situation where Israel is under threat by Iran. Last night, as forewarned, was only intended by Iran to be a limited retaliation not to provoke further escalation (which it certainly would have if lives had been lost and infrastructure destroyed) - it remains to be seen now by Israel’s response if the retaliation by Iran was limited enough to prevent that.

’It should be remembered’ (to quote the above) that less than a fortnight ago, Israel was becoming a pariah on the world stage and there were international discussions about sanctions and restricting arms sales to Israel. Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria was a serious and deliberate provocation to bait Iran into a direct response and thus give Netanyahu a moral advantage on the international stage that since mid October last year, they had been very much losing.

Not to see that attack for what it is, and what provoked it, is dangerously underestimating the seriousness of the situation. This is no longer a conflict of proxies - Israel made sure of that by directly attacking an Iranian embassy.

Btw - At the moment, we only have Israel’s word for it that there were no damaged buildings or, ‘fire on the ground’ - that information as expected would be controlled by the Israeli propaganda machine.

I do agree that the fact the US and UK/Jordan helped Israel out, gives them a stronger platform for urging restraint/a ceasefire in Gaza. However, let‘s see how Netanyahu responds now to Iran - he’s ignored the US and every UN resolution so far with his actions in Gaza, so I’m not holding my breath he is going to start listening now.

Obviously opinion as I don’t have a personal line into Iran.
I very much foubt that Iran wants all out war in the Middle East, as it’s a war they couldn’t win. What they want is a position of power and standing which giving Israel a bloody nose would have done. If you chuck 300 drones at Israel you would expect significant damage as a result, otherwise why do it? Strategically it doesn’t make sense. There are loads of foreign journalist’s in Israel so it’s not something you can hide.
Netanyahu is an a basket case and in an ideal world would be consigned to the bin with Putin, Trump etc. The west need to sit on him.

 

[pb21]

Israel would do well to descalate now.

They have essentially got away with taking out some of Iranian top brass effectively on Iranian soil, with just some military grandstanding in return. Absolutely no need to ramp things up any further.

 

[Questions]

You might want to check your order.

I've just entered 'Anderson shelter' in Howdens search engine, and I got 150 results back

Search Result

www.howdens.com

(B&Q brought back 6013 results).

I’m anticipating they’ll be bits missing.

 

[SeagullinExile]

So the UK shot down some drones eh?

WTF? Israel doesn’t need our help. How about defending the people of Ukraine who actually need it?

It’s a disgrace. No military action by the UK in the Middle East will be in my name. None.

 

[sparkie]

So the UK shot down some drones eh?

WTF? Israel doesn’t need our help. How about defending the people of Ukraine who actually need it?

It’s a disgrace. No military action by the UK in the Middle East will be in my name. None.

Not in my name either.

Every UK missile, shell, bullet, and litre of jet fuel needs to be conserved for protecting Ukraine from Russia.

Of course shooting down a drone which would have potentially otherwise killed someone has considerable merit which needs to be given proper consideration.

 

[Zeberdi]

Obviously opinion as I don’t have a personal line into Iran.
I very much foubt that Iran wants all out war in the Middle East, as it’s a war they couldn’t win. What they want is a position of power and standing which giving Israel a bloody nose would have done. If you chuck 300 drones at Israel you would expect significant damage as a result, otherwise why do it? Strategically it doesn’t make sense. There are loads of foreign journalist’s in Israel so it’s not something you can hide.
Netanyahu is an a basket case and in an ideal world would be consigned to the bin with Putin, Trump etc. The west need to sit on him.

I agree with much of this - absolutely but I also think Iran are also fully aware of Israel’s defensive capabilities which came into their own last - particularly the so called ‘Iron Dome’ over Israel which can intercept many high arc flying rockets (especially the smaller short range rockets that have been launched by Hamas and Hezbollah) and it’s Arrow 3 system an incredibly advanced aerial defensive system (the first in the world) which can intercept ballistic missiles and other warheads at very short notice - I’m not convinced Iran had hoped to achieve anything more than spread fear and terror of potential escalation with such a limited retaliation.

https://www.iai.co.il/p/arrow-3

There were probably points won on all sides last night

Iran's attack on Israel raises fears of a wider war, but all sides have also scored gains

The unprecedented attack by Iran on Israel early Sunday ratcheted up regional tensions.

apnews.com

So the UK shot down some drones eh?

WTF? Israel doesn’t need our help. How about defending the people of Ukraine who actually need it?

It’s a disgrace. No military action by the UK in the Middle East will be in my name. None.

The situation in Ukraine is appalling but I really wish people would stop seeing what is going on in the ME as a competition to see which is more worthy of our attention. Instability in Eastern Europe and the ME deeply concerns us all whether it be a fascist Israeli leader causing it or a Russian dictator.

This is a balanced view imo

Iran and Israel’s shadow war explodes into the open

But the Islamic Republic may have miscalculated

www.economist.com

 

[Triggaaar]

Post 9 11 hard to imagine WW3 not involving islam to some degree and Iran is the closest thing to a muslim super power and important to know seen as a protective power like the US in the west. If Iran is attacked with severe threat of collapse hell breaks loose terror cells all over Europe. Lets face it Ukraine war is big deal but no one is starting a world war over the fate of the Ukrainian people.

If it's a world war, then by definition the entire world is involved. But the question was whether this is the start of it. If Russia starts losing badly in Ukraine, there is the possibility they would escalate the conflict.

Iran Israel different beast US would be involved in no time. So much would be invested in this war the likes of China or Russia can do anything they want in their regions and its all on.

It's a leap to think that the US will escalate to the extent that WW3 starts.

Post cold war post 9 11 WW3 always starts with Iran vs Israel or US

WW3 always starts with Iran vs others? That's a crazy statement.

 

[Triggaaar]

IMO, Netanyahu is as much liability as Putin is - they both have expansionist aspirations, don’t care for their own people and are more than happy to take all of us to the brink of regional/even global war to achieve their objectives.

I disagree. Israel do not threaten to use nuclear weapons to wipe out the whole world. While I'm against Israel's actions in Palestine, there are also differences between that and Russia's war against Ukraine:
Hamas (from Palestine) attacked Israel, killing about 1,200 people.
Hamas have stated that their goal is to remove Israel entirely.
Israel, for its part, has not said they want to take over the whole of Palestine.

Compare that with Russia/Ukraine.
Ukraine did not attack Russia, and were never going to attack Russia.
Ukraine has no intention of ever harming Russia.
Russia has stated that Ukraine has no right to exist, and intends to take the whole country for itself.