Malaysian airline crash

[martyn20]

What sanctions will likely achieve is even greater trade cooperation between Russia and China - is it really in the West's best interest to drive Russia into looking South towards China and India for its major economic relationships.

It would take many years for a massive switch like that and China does not look a very safe bet either right now. The Russian economy would be in tatters before they made new relationships to make up the difference.
We are talking about economic sanctions that will start to be felt hard within months, they cannot build a pipeline quick enough to get the oil and gas anywhere else fast enough.

 

[Mackenzie]

172 posts at (lets say) an average of 5 minutes per post.....that's over 14 hours devoted to this thread.

Amazing scenes!

 

[Creaky]

It would take many years for a massive switch like that and China does not look a very safe bet either right now. The Russian economy would be in tatters before they made new relationships to make up the difference.
We are talking about economic sanctions that will start to be felt hard within months, they cannot build a pipeline quick enough to get the oil and gas anywhere else fast enough.

Already built!

Agreement signed in May for Russia to deliver a minimum of 38 billion cubic metres of Natural gas each year for the next 30 years.

In addition there are two oil pipelines capable of delivering 25 million tons of Russian oil per annum to China.

 

[martyn20]

Already built!

Agreement signed in May for Russia to deliver a minimum of 38 billion cubic metres of Natural gas each year for the next 30 years.

In addition there are two oil pipelines capable of delivering 25 million tons of Russian oil per annum to China.

And they are big enough to take up all the slack from Europe?

 

[Creaky]

And they are big enough to take up all the slack from Europe?

Probably not but of course if the EU, (or Russia), stopped imports of oil and gas into the EU the price of both on the world market would increase dramatically.

The opposite argument of course also applies - could Europe increase its oil and gas imports from other sources were 40% of its current oil supplies and 25% of its gas suddenly shut off?

Who would be hurt most economically - Russia or the EU?

 

[dingodan]

you're damn right i do, i've got family in Donetsk, this is all Russian led......... this is from this evening dingodan, do please try and explain it away?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/23/us-ukraine-crisis-commander-exclusive-idUSKBN0FS1V920140723

(Reuters) - A powerful Ukrainian rebel leader has confirmed that pro-Russian separatists had an anti-aircraft missile of the type Washington says was used to shoot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 and it could have originated in Russia.

In an interview with Reuters, Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion, acknowledged for the first time since the airliner was brought down in eastern Ukraine on Thursday that the rebels did possess the BUK missile system and said it could have been sent back subsequently to remove proof of its presence.

Before the Malaysian plane was shot down, rebels had boasted of obtaining the BUK missiles, which can shoot down airliners at cruising height. But since the disaster the separatists' main group, the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk, has repeatedly denied ever having possessed such weapons.

Since the airliner crashed with the loss of all 298 on board, the most contentious issue has been who fired the missile that brought the jet down in an area where government forces are fighting pro-Russian rebels.

Khodakovsky blamed the Kiev authorities for provoking what may have been the missile strike that destroyed the doomed airliner, saying Kiev had deliberately launched air strikes in the area, knowing the missiles were in place.

"I knew that a BUK came from Luhansk. At the time I was told that a BUK from Luhansk was coming under the flag of the LNR," he said, referring to the Luhansk People’s Republic, the main rebel group operating in Luhansk, one of two rebel provinces along with Donetsk, the province where the crash took place.

"That BUK I know about. I heard about it. I think they sent it back. Because I found out about it at exactly the moment that I found out that this tragedy had taken place. They probably sent it back in order to remove proof of its presence," Khodakovsky told Reuters on Tuesday.

That whole entire post proves that someone says that the Rebels have BUK missiles. Yet you responded to my post as if you had good reason to be certain that Russia was involved in the crash.

I have never disputed that the Rebels, and the Ukrainians both posses Russian made BUK missile systems.

Read my post again, I'm right in what I say.

The thing about the position that of you are taking is that you are all working to a kind of certainty. You don't say Russia may have been involved, you say Russia was involved.

The skeptical position I take is perfectly legitimate, but more than that - the position I take allows for the Rebels to be found to have brought down the plane. If it ends up being proven that that was the case, then my position, not withstanding everything I have said, still allows for the truth to be whatever it proves to be in the end. Your position is different, it is intractable.

That should give you a hint as to who is looking at this objectively.

 

[martyn20]

That whole entire post proves that someone says that the Rebels have BUK missiles. Yet you responded to my post as if you had good reason to be certain that Russia was involved in the crash.

I have never disputed that the Rebels, and the Ukrainians both posses Russian made BUK missile systems.

Read my post again, I'm right in what I say.

Can I ask have the Ukrainians used any BUK missiles in Eastern Ukraine, do the rebels have any air support?

 

[dingodan]

Can I ask have the Ukrainians used any BUK missiles in Eastern Ukraine, do the rebels have any air support?

We just don't agree on what the word evidence means, I respect what you believe about what happened, and I don't think it's unreasonable. But we will never agree on what constitutes a fact.

 

[martyn20]

We just don't agree on what the word evidence means, I respect what you believe about what happened, and I don't think it's unreasonable. But we will never agree on what constitutes a fact.

Did you reply to the wrong post?

 

[dingodan]

Did you reply to the wrong post?

Nope.

 

[martyn20]

Nope.

I asked you a question about BUK missiles and air support?

 

[ThePompousPaladin]

Geeks rule.

http://mashable.com/2014/07/23/citizen-journalists-mh17-spies/

 

[dingodan]

I asked you a question about BUK missiles and air support?

The answer is I don't know & no.

The real question is does that prove Russia was involved in bringing down the airliner? No, it doesn't. Because 2+2 doesn't = 5.

Like I said, we will obviously never agree on what evidence means, or what a fact is.

 

[martyn20]

The answer is I don't know & no.

The real question is does that prove Russia was involved in bringing down the airliner? No, it doesn't. Because 2+2 doesn't = 5.

Like I said, we will obviously never agree on what evidence means, or what a fact is.

I am not talking about confirmed evidence just your opinion, I was just wondering in the light of the rebels having no air support do you still think the Ukrainian army might have used BUK's in Eastern Ukraine? If you still think there is a chance this was not the rebels the answer has to be yes....

 

[Creaky]

I am not talking about confirmed evidence just your opinion, I was just wondering in the light of the rebels having no air support do you still think the Ukrainian army might have used BUK's in Eastern Ukraine? If you still think there is a chance this was not the rebels the answer has to be yes....

The rebels may have no air support but didn't the Ukrainians claim that their fighters had been attacked by Russian aircraft?

 

[martyn20]

The rebels may have no air support but didn't the Ukrainians claim that their fighters had been attacked by Russian aircraft?

Well that's what I was wondering? Surely it would have been a big thing if Russian planes were active over Ukraine, that would have blown out all claims by Putin they were not active there!

 

[dingodan]

I am not talking about confirmed evidence just your opinion, I was just wondering in the light of the rebels having no air support do you still think the Ukrainian army might have used BUK's in Eastern Ukraine? If you still think there is a chance this was not the rebels the answer has to be yes....

My opinion follows the evidence, without much evidence, I don't have much of an opinion.

 

[martyn20]

My opinion follows the evidence, without much evidence, I don't have much of an opinion.

We have had very little 100% confirmed evidence since Thursday, especially evidence that backs up many of your views but that has not stopped you having a lot of opinions in the last 4 days, why has that suddenly changed now?

 

[dingodan]

We have had very little 100% confirmed evidence since Thursday, especially evidence that backs up many of your views but that has not stopped you having a lot of opinions in the last 4 days, why has that suddenly changed now?

Evidence based opinions. And no strong opinion about whodunit? - because no strong evidence.

 

[martyn20]

Evidence based opinions. And no strong opinion about whodunit? - because no strong evidence.

You have had a very strong opinion on who didn't do it up until now?