Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[LamieRobertson]

Wednesday night apparently ..surely doesn’t help government messaging

 

[dazzer6666]

The number of long covid cases would be nice to know as well, a number of people have asked for this and its not forthcoming.

Starting to hear of more and more covid cases locally. Oxford 620 per 100k (11 fold increase in 5 weeks). A shape of things to come I'm afraid

Cases are going to keep shooting up, particularly after 19th - that's part of the calculated risk we're taking - numbers are barley worth looking at - it's hospitalisations that we primarily need to watch - these are still low (still less than 10% of the peak figure, and a much smaller % of positive cases than in the last wave) but trending upwards quite sharply at the moment.

 

[dazzer6666]

…on the same theme, deaths plotted vs infections.

 

[A1X]

…on the same theme, deaths plotted vs infections.

View attachment 138410

While this is positive it is worth pointing out that if we take the lag between the peak of cases and deaths in January and apply the same time difference to the current spike then we'd still be at a stage where cases are around level, the figures would only start to go up significantly in the next week or so. While this is good news we should still be cautious and not get too far ahead of ourselves, this thing is not over yet.

 

[Yoda]

While this is positive it is worth pointing out that if we take the lag between the peak of cases and deaths in January and apply the same time difference to the current spike then we'd still be at a stage where cases are around level, the figures would only start to go up significantly in the next week or so. While this is good news we should still be cautious and not get too far ahead of ourselves, this thing is not over yet.

What are you walking about? Even based on the previous two waves, we should be seeing approx. 400 deaths by now.

 

[dsr-burnley]

While this is positive it is worth pointing out that if we take the lag between the peak of cases and deaths in January and apply the same time difference to the current spike then we'd still be at a stage where cases are around level, the figures would only start to go up significantly in the next week or so. While this is good news we should still be cautious and not get too far ahead of ourselves, this thing is not over yet.

The gap from cases peak to deaths peak is 3 weeks. The time lapse from cases rising to deaths rising is no more than three weeks. Compare the way the cases rose from very low in November, to the way cases rose from very low since May - the blue line in November was much higher 7 weeks after the rise started in November, than it is now from when it started in May.

They reckon deaths from coronavirus are now about 1 in 1000 cases (and many of those are the voluntarily unvaccinated). That's almost certainly less than it is for flu, though as they don't test a million people per day for flu that's hard to prove. but flu deaths between 7,000 and 20,000 per year - are there between 7 million and 20 million people catch flu each year? I doubt it. The significant difference now is virulence - coronavirus is easier to catch. Does that justify restrictive measures, and would those restrictive measures significantly reduce cases or would they merely delay cases? That's the big question.

 

[darkwolf666]

The gap from cases peak to deaths peak is 3 weeks. The time lapse from cases rising to deaths rising is no more than three weeks. Compare the way the cases rose from very low in November, to the way cases rose from very low since May - the blue line in November was much higher 7 weeks after the rise started in November, than it is now from when it started in May.

They reckon deaths from coronavirus are now about 1 in 1000 cases (and many of those are the voluntarily unvaccinated). That's almost certainly less than it is for flu, though as they don't test a million people per day for flu that's hard to prove. but flu deaths between 7,000 and 20,000 per year - are there between 7 million and 20 million people catch flu each year? I doubt it. The significant difference now is virulence - coronavirus is easier to catch. Does that justify restrictive measures, and would those restrictive measures significantly reduce cases or would they merely delay cases? That's the big question.

If the virus only affected the voluntarily unvaccinated then no, restrctive measures probably wouldn't make any difference, however for those who would like to be fully vaccinated, but haven't yet had the opportunity some mitigation may help them!

 

[dazzer6666]

What are you walking about? Even based on the previous two waves, we should be seeing approx. 400 deaths by now.

Correct - and it's not even 10% of that, so even if the equivalent was say 200, we're still hugely down.

 

[dsr-burnley]

If the virus only affected the voluntarily unvaccinated then no, restrctive measures probably wouldn't make any difference, however for those who would like to be fully vaccinated, but haven't yet had the opportunity some mitigation may help them!

It would. I suppose it's under 40's we're talking about, since over 40's were three-quarters vaccinated (first jab) by 12th May, so by 19th July will pretty much all be vaccinated.

Under 40's? Well, we know that 928 under 40's have died since the pandemic started, 14 of them in the latest resurgence since May. Coincidentally, this is about the same number as have died on the roads from that age group. On average, under 40's have had a 1 in 2,000,000 chance of dying each week on the roads or with coronavirus (or both!) since last March. Obviously for coronavirus, this goes in surges: in the worst week in January, 57 people under 40 died, which is close to 1 in 500,000 chance of dying.

But in the latest week, 25th June, 4 people under 40 died of coronavirus. That is four tragedies, I know. But is it enough to cause the government to place restrictions?

 

[e77]

So in summary so long as people don't die we are happy now?

 

[LamieRobertson]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57766717

Encouraging?

 

[dsr-burnley]

So in summary so long as people don't die we are happy now?

Yes, I think that's something to be happy about.

 

[Yoda]

So in summary so long as people don't die we are happy now?

The main purpose of the vaccine is to stop as many people become severely sick, needing hospital treatment or dying. The fact it's stopping a lot of people catching it is a massive bonus.

Personally, now I'm close to the 10-14 days needed for the second dose to become effective, I don't mind if catch it only to be little bit ill for a few days at worst. I will know the vaccine will have done it's job.

 

[e77]

The main purpose of the vaccine is to stop as many people become severely sick, needing hospital treatment or dying. The fact it's stopping a lot of people catching it is a massive bonus.

Personally, now I'm close to the 10-14 days needed for the second dose to become effective, I don't mind if catch it only to be little bit ill for a few days at worst. I will know the vaccine will have done it's job.

There are other metrics to take into account. For example people returning to work need a slightly higher health and safety bar than not dying.

My two weeks was up last week (if you follow me). At 47 I am sure I would be ok if I got it but the fact remains not everyone has had the chance to be double jabbed yet.

To be honest I question why i bother mentioning this now. People either agree with me or have decided to ignore any argument suggesting some caution might want to be exercised.

 

[Granny on the wing]

There are other metrics to take into account. For example people returning to work need a slightly higher health and safety bar than not dying.

My two weeks was up last week (if you follow me). At 47 I am sure I would be ok if I got it but the fact remains not everyone has had the chance to be double jabbed yet.

To be honest I question why i bother mentioning this now. People either agree with me or have decided to ignore any argument suggesting some caution might want to be exercised.

I think letting the virus run amok is going to create new variants . The Government lost the plot from months ago.

 

[darkwolf666]

There are other metrics to take into account. For example people returning to work need a slightly higher health and safety bar than not dying.

My two weeks was up last week (if you follow me). At 47 I am sure I would be ok if I got it but the fact remains not everyone has had the chance to be double jabbed yet.

To be honest I question why i bother mentioning this now. People either agree with me or have decided to ignore any argument suggesting some caution might want to be exercised.

I'm with you all the way. All you can do is stay safe and look after yourself and your nearest and dearest the best you can.

Good luck!

 

[dsr-burnley]

I think letting the virus run amok is going to create new variants . The Government lost the plot from months ago.

I shouldn't worry unduly about that. All the many thousands of variants so far have been responsive to the vaccine, and there is no reason to suppose that won't continue. Besides which, the UK has less than 1% of the population of the world, so total lockdown or anything approaching it would be a token gesture with little practical impact.

 

[Soton Seagull]

Other half confirmed Covid today. Only had bad cold symptoms, non of the classics. Delta seems to manifest in partially or fully vaccinated as a cold, but Gov't so far refusing to change symptoms needed to get PCR.

We suspected Tuesday and taken until today to be certain. 37 billion well spent!

 

[e77]

I shouldn't worry unduly about that. All the many thousands of variants so far have been responsive to the vaccine, and there is no reason to suppose that won't continue. Besides which, the UK has less than 1% of the population of the world, so total lockdown or anything approaching it would be a token gesture with little practical impact.

I have supreme confidence that by Spring next year we will have found some sort of accommodation for Covid in this country (might be messy on the way but it will still happen). Same looks to be happening in the US and Europe. However the days when you could book a flight six months ahead of going anywhere else and be confident of going are a few years away yet.

 

[crodonilson]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57786002

Extremely depressing stuff, feel incredibly sorry for the hard working doctors and nurses who are again being put under intense pressure which will get much, much worse over the coming months.