Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Kinky Gerbil]

Notice that cases in the Netherlands are up 350% in the past 7 days. Mark Rutte went too fast and too early, now restrictions are being re-imposed

Our government needs to take note of others mistakes. If we don't it will be more pain in Autumn...

Our government are taking note of sage, who are saying now is the time because of the exit wave.

Holland are at our levels, so how do they exit?

 

[nicko31]

Our government are taking note of sage, who are saying now is the time because of the exit wave.

Holland are at our levels, so how do they exit?

Their current level of infection is around 30% of ours, but at the current growth rate they could be within days. Their abandonment of almost all restrictions lasted just 2 weeks, brakes now on for 5 weeks in the hope things improve.

 

[darkwolf666]

Their current level of infection is around 30% of ours, but at the current growth rate they could be within days. Their abandonment of almost all restrictions lasted just 2 weeks, brakes now on for 5 weeks in the hope things improve.

I think you are in for a rude awakening if you think there is any chance of Boris doing a U-turn on this one. Boris and Javid have steadfastly refused to answer what is an acceptable number of daily cases, even happily bandying around the 100k a day figure with no shame.

This is now irreversible, as Boris put it.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

What, the government have wasted our hard earned money?

That's disgraceful...!

Oh and is the bit in bold true or anecdotal? Twitter is full of such posts but other than social media I can't see any evidence that it is a mandate.

[MENTION=27279]dazzer6666[/MENTION] beat me to it.

I’m sure [MENTION=1933]Yoda[/MENTION] mentioned it the other day

It’s been in the press as well.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Their current level of infection is around 30% of ours, but at the current growth rate they could be within days. Their abandonment of almost all restrictions lasted just 2 weeks, brakes now on for 5 weeks in the hope things improve.

This is the issue - you either vaccinate to a point and accept cases will Sky rocket or you are in a circle of restrictions.

 

[atomised]

Notice that cases in the Netherlands are up 350% in the past 7 days. Mark Rutte went too fast and too early, now restrictions are being re-imposed

Our government needs to take note of others mistakes. If we don't it will be more pain in Autumn...

In terms of this wave though Holland and much of mainland Europe are slightly behind us curve wise

 

[darkwolf666]

[MENTION=27279]dazzer6666[/MENTION] beat me to it.

I’m sure [MENTION=1933]Yoda[/MENTION] mentioned it the other day

It’s been in the press as well.

Ben White going to Arsenal / Everton / Manchester City has been in the press, doesn't make it true.

I am sure there are incidents where someone has said something, but not sure it can be billed as NHS staff are being "told" to turn off the app...

Mind you, if the current plans go through it won't matter for the large majority of double vaccinated NHS staff...

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Ben White going to Arsenal / Everton / Manchester City has been in the press, doesn't make it true.

I am sure there are incidents where someone has said something, but not sure it can be billed as NHS staff are being "told" to turn off the app...

Mind you, if the current plans go through it won't matter for the large majority of double vaccinated NHS staff...

Sure, but using that logical nothing reported in the press is true.

 

[dazzer6666]

Ben White going to Arsenal / Everton / Manchester City has been in the press, doesn't make it true.

I am sure there are incidents where someone has said something, but not sure it can be billed as NHS staff are being "told" to turn off the app...

Mind you, if the current plans go through it won't matter for the large majority of double vaccinated NHS staff...

It’s not an official line from the top, but it’s happening, and quite widely from what I’ve (literally just) been told.

 

[dsr-burnley]

I think you are in for a rude awakening if you think there is any chance of Boris doing a U-turn on this one. Boris and Javid have steadfastly refused to answer what is an acceptable number of daily cases, even happily bandying around the 100k a day figure with no shame.

This is now irreversible, as Boris put it.

What does anyone else say is the acceptable daily number of cases? I haven't seen anyone, government or otherwise, give a useful estimate of the numbers at which they would be happy. It would be interesting to know.

 

[darkwolf666]

What does anyone else say is the acceptable daily number of cases? I haven't seen anyone, government or otherwise, give a useful estimate of the numbers at which they would be happy. It would be interesting to know.

Don't know, but then I'm not the one making life and death decisions - would like to think those making the decisions do have an idea of what's acceptable...

 

[dsr-burnley]

Don't know, but then I'm not the one making life and death decisions - would like to think those making the decisions do have an idea of what's acceptable...

You misunderstand - I'm not expecting you to have an idea, any more than i can specifiy numbers - what I want to know is what the expert advisers (official or unofficial) think is a reasonable number. Certainly it would be unreasonable to expect Johnson and Javid to have an idea of acceptable numbers if the advisers do not.

 

[LamieRobertson]

You misunderstand - I'm not expecting you to have an idea, any more than i can specifiy numbers - what I want to know is what the expert advisers (official or unofficial) think is a reasonable number. Certainly it would be unreasonable to expect Johnson and Javid to have an idea of acceptable numbers if the advisers do not.

Doesn’t it in part come down to what’s acceptable to the public (you and me) so I guess some of those advisors will be taking soundings from a cross section of society

 

[darkwolf666]

Doesn’t it in part cone down to what’s acceptable to the public (you and me) so I guess some of those advisors will be taking soundings from a cross section of society

Maybe, so maybe that's why Sajid Javid was so happy to throw out the 100k number a few weeks ago, soften people up to think 100k a day was acceptable without a second thought...

I would imagine now a large part of the population would find this number OK without a second thought for what it could actually mean!

 

[dazzer6666]

You misunderstand - I'm not expecting you to have an idea, any more than i can specifiy numbers - what I want to know is what the expert advisers (official or unofficial) think is a reasonable number. Certainly it would be unreasonable to expect Johnson and Javid to have an idea of acceptable numbers if the advisers do not.

I don’t think the number of cases has much relevance any more - it’s highly dependent on the number of tests being conducted, where those are being conducted etc. The question should be (but won’t be as it’s too politically difficult to answer - hence J&J not quoting numbers) what number of hospitalisations and deaths is acceptable…….the link to the number of infections from these is constantly weakening so using an ‘infections’ number isn’t that helpful. Currently the head of the NHS is suggesting they can cope, so I assume he’s been engaged in the discussions around how high admissions might get.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Maybe, so maybe that's why Sajid Javid was so happy to throw out the 100k number a few weeks ago, soften people up to think 100k a day was acceptable without a second thought...

I would imagine now a large part of the population would find this number OK without a second thought for what it could actually mean!

Hmm..just reading DSR’s post again ..I think he was asking for a figure that should be expected (on advice from modellers?) whereas you mentioned what’s acceptable ..two different things?

I assume the 100k is from modellers?
So far they’ve been higher than actual (I could be wrong) ..so maybe he’s happy to take a high figure ..hoping that if it’s say 80k it’s seen as less than feared

 

[CHAPPERS]

You misunderstand - I'm not expecting you to have an idea, any more than i can specifiy numbers - what I want to know is what the expert advisers (official or unofficial) think is a reasonable number. Certainly it would be unreasonable to expect Johnson and Javid to have an idea of acceptable numbers if the advisers do not.

Advisers advise, ministers decide

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I don’t think the number of cases has much relevance any more - it’s highly dependent on the number of tests being conducted, where those are being conducted etc. The question should be (but won’t be as it’s too politically difficult to answer - hence J&J not quoting numbers) what number of hospitalisations and deaths is acceptable…….the link to the number of infections from these is constantly weakening so using an ‘infections’ number isn’t that helpful. Currently the head of the NHS is suggesting they can cope, so I assume he’s been engaged in the discussions around how high admissions might get.

The trajectory is all important. New cases rising sharply. New hospitalizations rising slowly, numbers of deaths low but beginning to increase. Worst case scenario, back to January levels of cases, and the virus mutates again to something more lethal. It is more likely that the next mutation will result in something less lethal. It isn't in the interests of a virus to kill the host. If it spreads without killing (as easily) it will become the predominat strain.

I think that HMG's 'freedom day' plan still makes sense. What won't make sense is panicky backtracking and the introduction of advice to do differet things, voluntarily. We had a 'scare' over the weekend with the nipper requiring a test. The missus was all for isolating for ten days. I said I would still go for walks in my 'secret' locations where I will meet nobody. She wasn't best pleased. Nipper is negative, fortunately.

My guess is there will be panicky new measures in the next week or so.

 

[dazzer6666]

The trajectory is all important. New cases rising sharply. New hospitalizations rising slowly, numbers of deaths low but beginning to increase. Worst case scenario, back to January levels of cases, and the virus mutates again to something more lethal. It is more likely that the next mutation will result in something less lethal. It isn't in the interests of a virus to kill the host. If it spreads without killing (as easily) it will become the predominat strain.

I think that HMG's 'freedom day' plan still makes sense. What won't make sense is panicky backtracking and the introduction of advice to do differet things, voluntarily. We had a 'scare' over the weekend with the nipper requiring a test. The missus was all for isolating for ten days. I said I would still go for walks in my 'secret' locations where I will meet nobody. She wasn't best pleased. Nipper is negative, fortunately.

My guess is there will be panicky new measures in the next week or so.

Agree……..I suspect it’ll be ‘qualified freedom’ though. Boris has been too bullish on it to backtrack, so it’s going to happen but with a few measures remaining (masks on public transport etc) so he can still claim we’ve relaxed.

I’m genuinely fascinated to see what happens to the numbers over the next few weeks. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a plateau as the vacc programme really bites…..guess that’s what they are hoping for (and what they have based their decisions on) but time will tell.

 

[nicko31]

I think you are in for a rude awakening if you think there is any chance of Boris doing a U-turn on this one. Boris and Javid have steadfastly refused to answer what is an acceptable number of daily cases, even happily bandying around the 100k a day figure with no shame.

This is now irreversible, as Boris put it.

I wasn't saying there would be a reverse of July 19 I was merely illustrating what is going on elsewhere where all restrictions were all taken away.

Assuming thing go ahead as planned I wouldn't be at all surprised if restrictions are re-imposed in some shape form within weeks