Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[e77]

right, thats where im coming from. there is no plan, there was no plan. that part hasn't changed, expectations did.

I can't speak for vulnerable people and maybe my expectations were too high but although I was expecting an exit wave I wasn't really expecting up to 100,000 new cases a day.

There is stuff that could be done liking arranging supermarkets to only open for vulnerable people once a week for an hour or two or maybe looking into masks that reduce the risk of infection for the wearer and give them proper training to put them on.

That said don't listen to me, several people vulnerable to infection or related to someone who is are raising concerns and that can't all be put down to the government scaring people.

 

[Bozza]

No masks in Tesco and "living with the virus" FTW...

Cancer surgeries cancelled at one of England’s largest hospitals as NHS summer crisis deepens

Cancer patients at one of England’s largest hospital trusts have had their surgeries cancelled after rising numbers of coronavirus patients, which senior medics said was “affecting all our wards everywhere.”

Leeds Teaching Hospitals Trust said it had seen a “marked increase” in Covid admissions and was now having to cancel surgery for urgent patients “who’ve already waited too long”.

More >>> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/leeds-cancer-surgery-coronavirus-nhs-b1879646.html

 

[dsr-burnley]

As a vulnerable person, I was assessing risk all the time, looking at what activities were safe, monitoring blood test immune level indicators like neutrophil levels etc. In assessing risk from Covid, the infection rates are a key factor. When the original roadmap was introduced, I had no concerns about lifting most restrictions in late June as pre-Delta projections indicated low levels of infection and I want to see life return to normal for the majority of the population. I hadn't expected for a minute that they would be lifted with rates and trends as they are now.

As for anxiety, the minister for ill-health casually talking about 100,000 cases a day is the most terrifying thing I have heard this week. Have I missed something worse?

If we are going to get this number of cases even with vaccine - then isn't it as well to get them now, in summer, get them out of the way, and let the vulnerable lockdown tight in the meantime? Because the alternative as far as I can see is to lockdown everybody for longer and still have the wave when lockdown is released; or lockdown everyone for ever.

If vaccination does not stop cases, then there is no point delaying release. If vaccination does stop cases, then there is little point delaying release. Support the vulnerable at home for the time when the case numbers are too high.

 

[dsr-burnley]

No masks in Tesco and "living with the virus" FTW...

Cancer surgeries cancelled at one of England’s largest hospitals as NHS summer crisis deepens

Cancer patients at one of England’s largest hospital trusts have had their surgeries cancelled after rising numbers of coronavirus patients, which senior medics said was “affecting all our wards everywhere.”

Leeds Teaching Hospitals Trust said it had seen a “marked increase” in Covid admissions and was now having to cancel surgery for urgent patients “who’ve already waited too long”.

More >>> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/leeds-cancer-surgery-coronavirus-nhs-b1879646.html

When they say that the Leeds teaching hospital is facing unprecedented pressures at the moment, they could perhaps go on to mention that the most coronavirus cases they had was 311 last November, and the latest number they have issued (29th June) was 22. I'm not saying the 22 are not causing the same sort pf pressure as the 311 did; but it would be interesting to know why. If nothing else, if they had put more detail in the article and a bit less waffle, it would help cynical statisiticians to understand the apparently contradictory data.

 

[Bozza]

When they say that the Leeds teaching hospital is facing unprecedented pressures at the moment, they could perhaps go on to mention that the most coronavirus cases they had was 311 last November, and the latest number they have issued (29th June) was 22. I'm not saying the 22 are not causing the same sort pf pressure as the 311 did; but it would be interesting to know why. If nothing else, if they had put more detail in the article and a bit less waffle, it would help cynical statisiticians to understand the apparently contradictory data.

I think, for a certain audience, there will always be a reason. Or excuse if you will.

It comes down to this: if you want the NHS to provide care to those that need it, recognising a lot need it right now because they held back seeking it, then dumping hundreds (soon to be at least a thousand or more) covid-infected people per day, into the hospital system means that something has to give. Some people will miss out.

Covid-care, or non-Covid-care.- something will have to give. People who need and deserve care will miss out.

But, silver cloud and all that, no masks in Tesco. Come on!

(Do you think cancer care has been cancelled for fun or something?)

 

[Bozza]

If we are going to get this number of cases even with vaccine - then isn't it as well to get them now, in summer, get them out of the way.

Maybe it is (best to get them out the way now).

Unlike most, I won't pretend I know the answer. This stuff is horrible - I can't imagine having to make these kind of choices.

But when a choice is made, let's be honest about the implications of that choice. The choice that has been made - to unlock ASAP and abandon all forms of protection PDQ - will consign people to death. There's simply not enough care to go round, particularly once you consider the mass isolations that will be required of NHS healthcare staff, with a rampant virus.

 

[LamieRobertson]

As Bozza has mentioned masks in Tescos three times over the last two days …from what I can see only Sainsbury’s have hinted at a change of policy out of the supermarkets …indeed some businesses have said they will retain them for staff and potentially even customers in certain situations

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

right, thats where im coming from. there is no plan, there was no plan. that part hasn't changed, expectations did.

Blame the public for having the audacity to expect the leader of the country to lead. Lovely stuff.

Gary Neville’s knows.

 

[vegster]

When they say that the Leeds teaching hospital is facing unprecedented pressures at the moment, they could perhaps go on to mention that the most coronavirus cases they had was 311 last November, and the latest number they have issued (29th June) was 22. I'm not saying the 22 are not causing the same sort pf pressure as the 311 did; but it would be interesting to know why. If nothing else, if they had put more detail in the article and a bit less waffle, it would help cynical statisiticians to understand the apparently contradictory data.

The " Unprecedented pressure " is more the result of staff having to self isolate and the hospitals ability to fully staff it's day to day running.

I found out at 11.00 pm last night that my daughter, who works for the NHS, and her family have to isolate until next Friday after her 2 year old had been exposed to a positive Covid case at nursery school. My daughter works with medically vulnerable children with disabilities and cannot risk passing the virus on as it would probably be fatal for them.
This will be multiplied around the country as case numbers, by the government's own admission, explode.


In the next few years time, the winning of the 2020 European Cup might well be regarded as a poisoned chalice for all the spreading events that accompanied it.

 

[cheshunt seagull]

If we are going to get this number of cases even with vaccine - then isn't it as well to get them now, in summer, get them out of the way, and let the vulnerable lockdown tight in the meantime? Because the alternative as far as I can see is to lockdown everybody for longer and still have the wave when lockdown is released; or lockdown everyone for ever.

If vaccination does not stop cases, then there is no point delaying release. If vaccination does stop cases, then there is little point delaying release. Support the vulnerable at home for the time when the case numbers are too high.

I keep hearing that there will be almost a fixed number of cases that we might as well deal with now but I don't get it. With every vaccinated person the chance of one serious case is reduced regardless of the season. It only makes sense if your actual strategy is to use infections as a way of creating herd immunity which I suspect is now the case.

 

[beorhthelm]

Blame the public for having the audacity to expect the leader of the country to lead. Lovely stuff.

Gary Neville’s knows.

i didnt blame the public.

 

[dazzer6666]

Good read :

https://twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1413000336915243010?s=21

 

[LamieRobertson]

Good read :

https://twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1413000336915243010?s=21

Spells things out clearly doesn’t it…in all aspects

 

[LamieRobertson]

A glimmer of hope but some caution

https://twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1412898983731683337?s=21

 

[nicko31]

The question is what carries more risk, delaying a few weeks or going too early?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...erts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening


more than 100 global experts warn that removing restrictions on 19 July will cause millions of infections and risk creating a generation with chronic health problems and disability from long Covid, the impact of which may be felt for decades.

 

[dsr-burnley]

The question is what carries more risk, delaying a few weeks or going too early?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...erts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening


more than 100 global experts warn that removing restrictions on 19 July will cause millions of infections and risk creating a generation with chronic health problems and disability from long Covid, the impact of which may be felt for decades.

They don't specifically say what the reason is for delaying a few weeks. In June, the reason for delaying a few weeks was unequivocal - it was to allow more people to get vaccinated. That reason seems to have been abandoned this time, and the reason for delaying a few weeks now is the fairly woolly "people might get ill".

I knew they would have to drop the vaccine argument next month when they argue for the delay from August into September, but I'm surprised they have dropped it already.

I want to see a reason specified for the delay. For example, delay until cases are less than xxxx per day. Delay until there are fewer than xxxx in hospital. Delay until cases are falling by xxxx percentage. Delay until death has been reversed and we are all immortal. Give us a modelling scenario with dates and numbers - an estimate of what they think might happen, how many deaths (comparisons with other respiratory diseases would be helpful), and what date they believe this thing might be reversed and it is safe to move. Also, since they are dead keen on mask wearing, an assessment of how effective masks have been during the current 4-week delay and their effectiveness at stopping the spread of coronavirus.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Draws up chair and snacks

 

[CHAPPERS]

They don't specifically say what the reason is for delaying a few weeks. In June, the reason for delaying a few weeks was unequivocal - it was to allow more people to get vaccinated. That reason seems to have been abandoned this time, and the reason for delaying a few weeks now is the fairly woolly "people might get ill".

I knew they would have to drop the vaccine argument next month when they argue for the delay from August into September, but I'm surprised they have dropped it already.

I want to see a reason specified for the delay. For example, delay until cases are less than xxxx per day. Delay until there are fewer than xxxx in hospital. Delay until cases are falling by xxxx percentage. Delay until death has been reversed and we are all immortal. Give us a modelling scenario with dates and numbers - an estimate of what they think might happen, how many deaths (comparisons with other respiratory diseases would be helpful), and what date they believe this thing might be reversed and it is safe to move. Also, since they are dead keen on mask wearing, an assessment of how effective masks have been during the current 4-week delay and their effectiveness at stopping the spread of coronavirus.

What would be helpful is if the Health Secretary and the PM would actually answer when questioned about how many hospitalisations and deaths THEY think opening up on July 19th with no restrictions or preventative measures will cause, instead of simply ignoring any question relating to this.

 

[dsr-burnley]

What would be helpful is if the Health Secretary and the PM would actually answer when questioned about how many hospitalisations and deaths THEY think opening up on July 19th with no restrictions or preventative measures will cause, instead of simply ignoring any question relating to this.

Yes, agreed. Let the government produce their modelling (heaven knows they've done enough of that before) and let the pro-restriction lobby produce theirs, and the two can be compared. Both parties of course should produce numbers for both scenarios - caary on as now, or release. Then the professional and amateur statisticians can all compare for themselves what the differences are and why.

They can also, for perspective, show the equivalent numbers for other respiratory diseases.

 

[nicko31]

What would be helpful is if the Health Secretary and the PM would actually answer when questioned about how many hospitalisations and deaths THEY think opening up on July 19th with no restrictions or preventative measures will cause, instead of simply ignoring any question relating to this.

The number of long covid cases would be nice to know as well, a number of people have asked for this and its not forthcoming.

Starting to hear of more and more covid cases locally. Oxford 620 per 100k (11 fold increase in 5 weeks). A shape of things to come I'm afraid