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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
Kalimantan Gull
Well-known member
why compare with other forms of dying? Its additional, not instead of.
And your last part about virus 'biology' is ill-informed
Eh?
Yep.
Well the black death/plague didn't kill people faster than they could spread the virus. If it did, then the virus wouldn't have spread so much.
I think the point you're trying to make, is that a virus is more likely to continue to exist if it doesn't kill it's host. That is just a simple reality of evolution. But it is not because the virus doesn't want to kill anyone. The virus doesn't care. It doesn't even know if it's killing people. Each individual cell just does it's thing, and what will be will be.
The point is, that the virus will not therefore try to spare the lives of it's host, it will just do it's thing. This particular virus is killing a larger percentage of it's hosts that something like the flu. This virus is also spreading from person to person a reasonable amount. We hope that the actions that are being taken can stop it spreading too much, but if we're successful, it won't be because the virus doesn't want to kill anyone.
I didn't mention 'biology'.
A virus is a living thing and living things are programmed to survive. Should a virus be too deadly the hosts willl die before they can pass it on and it becomes extinct. Hence the black death example proving my point rather than trigs. SARS was much more deadly and lasted for far less time than corona.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/...ases-evolve-to-kill-their-hosts/#73709c95323e
"The strain of the Black Death plague (Yersinia pestis) from the 14th century was too virulent and is now extinct,"
I'm far from panicking, but I'll admit to being worried.
That worry is not really at a personal health level - fortunately (and it's nothing other than good fortune) me and my immediate family are all healthy with no medical conditions that would place us in a high-risk category, as far as we are aware.
However, we do have extended family, friends and neighbours who would be more susceptible based on how this virus has hit people to date.
I can't believe I am typing this, but I am considering buying a small stock of non-perishable foods this weekend to stick away just in case. Again, based on what has happened elsewhere, other people WILL panic and that will mean the non-panickers may find temporarily empty shelves when they pop out for groceries.
I'm also wondering if tomorrow will be the last game at the Amex we get to see for a while...
That worry is not really at a personal health level - fortunately (and it's nothing other than good fortune) me and my immediate family are all healthy with no medical conditions that would place us in a high-risk category, as far as we are aware.
However, we do have extended family, friends and neighbours who would be more susceptible based on how this virus has hit people to date.
I can't believe I am typing this, but I am considering buying a small stock of non-perishable foods this weekend to stick away just in case. Again, based on what has happened elsewhere, other people WILL panic and that will mean the non-panickers may find temporarily empty shelves when they pop out for groceries.
I'm also wondering if tomorrow will be the last game at the Amex we get to see for a while...
Nobby
Well-known member
- Sep 29, 2007
- 2,905
Kalimantan Gull
Well-known member
Why don't we look at this a different way. This virus started in Wuhan in China, where it went uncontrolled for up to a month with the first people going around spreading it. They've gone up to over 65,000 cases in the Wuhan area with over 2,500 deaths, and most of these have required hospitalisation. As a result of the initial spike they put the city under curfew and quarantine and closed large numbers of businesses, schools, etc.
Now lets have it your way. Lets not close anything down, lets let people keep moving around and spreading it and getting sick.... what would these numbers look like instead? Quite a lot more I'm sure you'll agree.
Lets say this had happened in London, a similar sized city to Wuhan. 65,000 people have got sick with all the curfews and quarantine going on, what would it be without that? The entire UK only has about 170,000 hospital beds. We would already have over 2,000 dead in London, compared to the ****ing COLD + flu's annual 600 or so for the whole country.
The death rate in over 80's who get it is 15%. And you're happy having people just wandering around spreading it? No-one aged over 80 in your family?
I think the only reason you can contentedly sit there and write 'only 15 cases', ' just a cough' - is precisely because the Chinese put draconian measures in place to stop it spreading. For now.
On reflection, badly timed, for obvious NSC reasons, so apologies for that.
But, back in the real world, my step dad is 80 and has serious problemts with diabetes. It may be if an epidemic hits the UK it finishes him off, if may not. He may drop down tomorrow and he may get a telegram from The Queen. But none of us are planning for the latter including him. Every day is now a bonus.
Albion_Dave
Well-known member
Reports coming in of the first British fatality.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...om-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-dies-11945226
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...om-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-dies-11945226
Nobby
Well-known member
- Sep 29, 2007
- 2,905
Also in the real world, someone with Athsma who has just turned 30.
But hey ho, as you say it’s just a cold FFS
Kalimantan Gull
Well-known member
No, you didn't mention biology, hence the marks around it. What you did do was ascribe motive to a virus, which is, well, even you know that...
A virus is not a living thing, as far as most are concerned. It is a protein shell with receptors, which it uses to enter a hosts cell, and inside is an RNA or DNA strand which it uses to get a host cell to build replicates of the virus. When the infected cell dies and collapses they break out and do it all over again.
You are quite right that if a virus is too deadly the hosts will die before too many new viruses are created and passed on, thus limiting its spread. Viruses constantly mutate and if killing hosts is limiting its spread, then selection pressures may make it less deadly. But viruses are very simple things. They can mutate in all kinds of directions. They can mutate to be more contagious, to infect other species, to accelerate their production, to survive better outside the host. All those things will help it, and all those things are less good for us. But also, because it is very simple, most mutations just make it unviable. What you have is generally what you get. Smallpox is still smallpox. And as you point out, things that are too virulent tend to burn themselves out, rather than mutating into something different.
In the case of covid-19, it appears to be contagious before the patient shows symptoms; the patient takes a long time to die or to recover; and death rates aren't THAT high. It also appears to be pretty good at infecting other people. It doesn't seem like there is much pressure for it to be less deadly.
SARS is more contagious than Covid-19 and more deadly than Covid-19. But SARS wasn't contagious until you showed symptoms, so it was controllable. The fact SARS didn't break out was nothing to do with mutations of the virus, the SARS virus is just as deadly as ever. But people could control it.
The worst viruses are tuberculosis, smallpox, polio and diptheria. Very contagious relative to most diseases (all much more contagious than seasonal flu) but also very deadly - 70% in the case of untreated TB. So huge effort has been put into their control and eradication.
There will be a vaccine for this in time, that is for sure
Horton's halftime iceberg
Blooming Marvellous
Really Sad news, the cruise ship has the third highest amount of cases behind China and Korea.
vegster
Sanity Clause
- May 5, 2008
- 28,288
RIP, this was probably coming sooner or later.
Horton's halftime iceberg
Blooming Marvellous
In the little I read, viruses are seen as successful and unsuccessful, with many articles saying the successful ones survive by not being highly deadly or mutaining into something thats less virulent, so many of us may translatte this information by possibly Anthropomorphism of the little bugs.
When you state that 'viruses do not want to kill anyone because that kills the virus', that is bringing biology into it. It's an incorrect statement.
That's also incorrect. A virus is particularly deadly if it is likely to kill it's host, but it doesn't have to kill the host quickly in order to be considered deadly. It can kill the host slowly, allowing plenty of time for the virus to be spread.
From your link: "Every now and then a disease becomes so dangerous that it kills the host. If the disease is able to spread to another host before the first host dies, then it is not too lethal to exist. " oo, like the Coronavirus.
Maybe you'll be satisfied if the Coronavirus is as lethal as the Black Death was. Hundreds of millions will die, and the virus will eventually die too.
vegster
Sanity Clause
- May 5, 2008
- 28,288
I think that is a wise move, cans of beans, pasta maybe some flour and milk ( to put in freezer) , The Great British Public WILL panic in the same way the Chinese public did that is for sure. I always remember long ago going to the big Co-Op ( now Morrison's)by Worthing station straight after work to get a couple of tins of Cat food and some milk and the place had been stripped of several things, there was no milk, fruit and veg or frozen chips and veg because earlier in the day a weather report said a Big Freeze was due which could last 10days !
Indeed. Very sad for the person and their loved ones.
Also in that report:
"The Japanese government has been criticised for the way it handled the ship's isolation, with some doctors saying it acted like an incubator."
Obviously little consolation for the locals but I was thinking the air quality in certain parts of China must have improved so much over the last few weeks.
Tom Hark Preston Park
Will Post For Cash
- Jul 6, 2003
- 72,690
Only thing we know for certain is that JP Morgan and the like will be making money hand over fist, no matter which way the stock market turns. ****s