Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[ManOfSussex]

An interesting tweet from Prof Sikora today

Around 450 people die every day of cancer in the UK.

There is no peak and the numbers aren't coming down.

Unless we get control of the situation now, that will increase - potentially up to 60,000 unnecessary fatalities.

Cancer is relentless - we need to act now.


I think he’s referring to cancelled operations etc re cancer

As I said on another thread, I was christened as a baby and one of my Godfather's, a friend of my Dad's, who I've known all my life and has done so much for me, has recently been diagnosed with cancer. His family are now having to weigh up whether to even start treatment because of what's going on.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Japan's 'uprise' in cases is neither here because I (along with everyone else) don't regard the absolute number of reported cases as reliable. That's why I have normalized cases to deaths in each country. What is important is the ratio of cases per deaths has gone down in Japan, in alignment with my measure of 'peaked'.

This has nothing to do with seasonality. It is expected the virus will be seasonal like any flu. This year the peak is going to be late (April/May - and I say April) because it started late. The first human exposure to the virus was around November - far to late for it to be possible for what we expect to be the natural seasonal peak in January. I wouldn't regard one northern hemisphere 'outlier' as an issue in a data base of 30 odd countries. But in fact as explained above Japan isn't an outlier.

Finally if I had the hypothesis that Covid is not seasonal I'd need to wait a year before collecting data since the gun was fired for the first time, globally, only late last year, setting the clock in a way that this year at least would delay the peak, as noted above.

Thank you.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Where are you getting the bit in bold from? Everything I've read suggests the opposite. CV isn't expected to be seasonal, at least at this stage, due to lack of immunity, the fact that most other coronaviruses aren't seasonal, etc.

Apologies. I had take it as read (having read it said). I just did a search and it seems it is expected to be seasonal, as supported by the apparent peak just about having been reached (arguably.....), Screen grap of my search below. But you are right, this may not be the case - proof of the pudding etc.

 

[Bozza]

Apologies. I had take it as read (having read it said). I just did a search and it seems it is expected to be seasonal, as supported by the apparent peak just about having been reached (arguably.....), Screen grap of my search below. But you are right, this may not be the case - proof of the pudding etc.

The (first) peak (plateau) being reached has nothing to do with seasonality, and everything to do with social distancing measures.

If we were all living life as we did in April 2019, we'd be nowhere near a peak right now.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

This would suggest that - had the virus first turned up in, say, September last year, and spread over here in a big way by November, we'd potentially be looking at a far worse scenario now? That fortunately it turned up a bit late in the flu season, so to speak?

If it is a seasonal type flu then, yes. Albeit my assumption it is a seasonal type flu has been questioned and I haven't yet looked to see whether it is certain, likely, possible, unlikely or impossible to know yet.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

Apologies. I had take it as read (having read it said). I just did a search and it seems it is expected to be seasonal, as supported by the apparent peak just about having been reached (arguably.....), Screen grap of my search below. But you are right, this may not be the case - proof of the pudding etc.

View attachment 122369

For an academic, you aren’t being too rigorous with your sources are you?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The (first) peak (plateau) being reached has nothing to do with seasonality, and everything to do with social distancing measures.

If we were all living life as we did in April 2019, we'd be nowhere near a peak right now.

No I realise that, but doesn't mean there isn't a seasonal peak, though.

Do you happen to know if the modelling that has been done assumes there is a seasonal peak or not?

Do you happen to know if the early modelling that predicted it will all come back in the autumn (second massive peak) in China (or anywhere else practicing hard social distancing now) is based on what would happen if social distancing is relaxedin the autumn, or based on an assumption of a seasonal resurgence?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

For an academic, you aren’t being too rigorous with your sources are you?

I must admit I haven't checked any statements about seasonality.

But to be fair it doesn't impact on my back of the envelope modeling. Making inferences based on looking at the ratio of reported cases to reported deaths, and looking at how this changes over the next few weeks is not contingent on the seasonality of the virus (although the findings will be). Remember all I am doing is evaluating whether the numer of new cases is reaching a peak or not. I made only two assumptions: (i) that the inaccuracy in reporting cases and the inaccuracy in reporting deaths has a rubric that, although probably different in each country, remains constant within each country over time and (ii) the average probability of an individual dying of COVA if they catch it is a constant within each national population (until the average demographic of a population is changed by, e.g., a significant proportion of the most vulnerable subcomponents of a population being reduced by the sheer number of Cova deaths).

 

[BLOCK F]

Hahaha!

Especially funny as that would have been Corbyn's house. I wonder if the same ire would have been directed towards him? I think not. Amazing double standards.

It's only what we have come to expect of that particular poster.
I don't think he can help himself and I'm pretty sure nobody else can

 

[RossyG]

This is from Peston and is a bit vaguely worded, but still worth considering.

 

[The Wizard]

 

[Birdie Boy]

This is from Peston and is a bit vaguely worded, but still worth considering.

View attachment 122375

I thought it had been posted that both France and Brazil had done some testing and was stopped, in those countries, due to causing cardiac issues so this drug is most likely a non starter...

Sent from my WAS-LX1A using Tapatalk

 

[pb21]

This is a particularly depressing article, not least this bit:

"We have the first serological studies and unfortunately they are not encouraging. In the areas most affected by the epidemic we see that immunity is around 10 percent. From what I know it is the same thing in Lombardy. It is much less than what we we waited, and we hoped. We are very far from a natural immunity in the population. But there is another problem ".

Which?

"This virus is very particular. We noticed that the lifespan of the protective antibodies against Covid-19 is very short. And we see more and more cases of recurrence in people who have already had a first infection."

So nobody is really protected against coronavirus, not even those who have already fallen ill?

"It seems so. This is why our committee no longer recommends an immune license, a sort of pass for those who have had a first infection."

https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/04/12/news/coronavirus_infettivologo_macron-253823225/

 

[Billy the Fish]

This is a particularly depressing article, not least this bit:



https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/04/12/news/coronavirus_infettivologo_macron-253823225/

If they're correct, that is absolutely nuclear. It's basically the end of life as we knew it.

 

[Machiavelli]

If they're correct, that is absolutely nuclear. It's basically the end of life as we knew it.

Yup. That's the worse thing I've read on this, so far.

 

[Notters]

This is a particularly depressing article, not least this bit:



https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/04/12/news/coronavirus_infettivologo_macron-253823225/

If they're correct, that is absolutely nuclear. It's basically the end of life as we knew it.

Sounds like that may have been taken slightly out of context. There is various comment on it below but it sounds like it's people who have it badly who have a poor subsequent immune response, rather than the other way round (which was reported the other day with regard to antibody testing).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/g2z1hr/we_noticed_that_the_lifespan_of_the_protective/

 

[pb21]

Sounds like that may have been taken slightly out of context. There is various comment on it below but it sounds like it's people who have it badly who have a poor subsequent immune response, rather than the other way round (which was reported the other day with regard to antibody testing).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/g2z1hr/we_noticed_that_the_lifespan_of_the_protective/

Also it would suggest a vaccine isn't viable if you are only immune for a short period.

I would take that aspect with a pinch of salt, although the 10% already infected (in Lombardy) isn't as high as I was hoping for.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

What's beginning to grate a bit with me is that at various times during this crisis we've told how we've got 'the best' this and the 'world class' that and how we are being driven by 'the science'. The various expert spokesman have exuded cool, calm, confidence and project the image that all is in hand and going to plan.
Then why are we (possibly) destined to have the highest number of deaths in Europe? We're also told by the politicians time and again that they are going to 'level' with us. Well, what's gone wrong and why hasn't enough been done about it?

 

[dazzer6666]

https://twitter.com/_PaulHayward/status/1251152473009516546?s=20


Paul Hayward
@_PaulHayward
·
3m
A coronavirus testing station is expected to open at Brighton's Withdean Stadium. Cars have been removed by crane. A temporary mortuary is being built at Sussex University in Falmer.

 

[Notters]

What's beginning to grate a bit with me is that at various times during this crisis we've told how we've got 'the best' this and the 'world class' that and how we are being driven by 'the science'. The various expert spokesman have exuded cool, calm, confidence and project the image that all is in hand and going to plan.
Then why are we (possibly) destined to have the highest number of deaths in Europe? We're also told by the politicians time and again that they are going to 'level' with us. Well, what's gone wrong and why hasn't enough been done about it?

Because the route we're going down is to just keep the NHS above water, whereas a tighter lockdown would mean fewer deaths now but a more difficult exit strategy, more long term impacts on the economy and more deaths long term from other illnesses?