Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Weststander]

One thing we can all agree on - we all hope that Costello is wrong in that our death toll will be lower than his guess and on a par with our neighbours at worst.

That what sets NSC above other message boards. Everyone puts the real lives of people, above petty party politics. Classy.

 

[Machiavelli]

After you take out the quirky little places like Monaco, Vatican City, and San Marino, Britain has the third highest population density in Europe after the Netherlands and Belgium.

The Netherlands has so far had 3,459 deaths from a population of 17.18 million.

Belgium has so far had 5,163 deaths from a population of 11.52 million.

The UK has had 14,576 deaths from a population of 66.02 million.

So per million, we're actually doing better than those two countries.

Fourth most densely populated is Germany with 4,125 deaths from a population of 82.98 million, which seems amazingly good.

Needless to say, the German figures are trumpeted by the media, but the Netherlands and Belgium figures are all but ignored. The media like to eliminate the positive and accentuate the negative.

Dutch figure = 3459/17180000 = 0.000020
UK figure = 14576/660200000 = 0.000022

So, no, we're not doing better than two of the "densely populated" countries you've selected, for comparison. And that's not even taking into account that the figures you've chosen are not the total deaths but, rather, the hospitalised deaths. Anthony Costello estimates that the actual number of deaths are 50% higher but, anyway, feel good about us/the government is popular on here.

 

[The Wizard]

Let’s hope one of these drugs can help us until a vaccine is found, sounds promising.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...prevents-disease-progression-monkeys-covid-19

 

[AZ Gull]

A geneticist from Cambridge University is leading a research project into how the virus has evolved since it first entered a human. (It fascinates me that by studying the genetic mutations of the virus you can trace its evolution and progress throughout the world). Anyway, their study suggests that the outbreak started most probably sometime between September 13 and December 7 2019, but the evidence currently available suggests that Wuhan was not the source of the outbreak - Coronavirus Outbreak May Have Started as Early as September, Scientists Say

And this paragraph jumped out at me:-

They have created a network analysis using over 1,000 coronavirus genomes. This includes patient infection date and the "type" of virus the person was infected with. There are three types—A, B and C. A is closest to the coronavirus found in bats and is thought to be the original human virus genome. This type was found in Chinese and American individuals, with mutated versions in patients from Australia and the U.S.

The probability must be very low, but can you imagine if it turned out that this virus actually started in the USA? Trump's head might actually explode....

 

[Machiavelli]

A geneticist from Cambridge University is leading a research project into how the virus has evolved since it first entered a human. (It fascinates me that by studying the genetic mutations of the virus you can trace its evolution and progress throughout the world). Anyway, their study suggests that the outbreak started most probably sometime between September 13 and December 7 2019, but the evidence currently available suggests that Wuhan was not the source of the outbreak - Coronavirus Outbreak May Have Started as Early as September, Scientists Say

And this paragraph jumped out at me:-



The probability must be very low, but can you imagine if it turned out that this virus actually started in the USA? Trump's head might actually explode....

Not unlike 'Spanish' flu. Born in Kansas.

 

[Triggaaar]

The probability must be very low, but can you imagine if it turned out that this virus actually started in the USA? Trump's head might actually explode....

"Mr President - what is your reaction to news that Covid 19 originated in the US?"
"Fake news. The clue's in the name, it's the Chinese Virus. Chai nah!"

... 2 months later

"Mr President - why are you still referring to Covid 19 as the Chinese Virus when it's been proven that it originated in the US?"
"I know more about the Chinese Virus than just about anybody. I called it right from the start. It started with a Chinese man who was in the US. Without a valid visa I might add."

 

[Bodian]

"Mr President - what is your reaction to news that Covid 19 originated in the US?"
"Fake news. The clue's in the name, it's the Chinese Virus. Chai nah!"

... 2 months later

"Mr President - why are you still referring to Covid 19 as the Chinese Virus when it's been proven that it originated in the US?"
"I know more about the Chinese Virus than just about anybody. I called it right from the start. It started with a Chinese man who was in the US. Without a valid visa I might add."

Great till the "I might add" bit - just can't imagine Trump constructing a sentence as well as that!

 

[Triggaaar]

Great till the "I might add" bit - just can't imagine Trump constructing a sentence as well as that!

You might be right, but I thought I'd heard him saying that Maybe not

EDIT
31 seconds in:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY4XbqPEIME&feature=emb_logo

 

[Bodian]

A geneticist from Cambridge University is leading a research project into how the virus has evolved since it first entered a human. (It fascinates me that by studying the genetic mutations of the virus you can trace its evolution and progress throughout the world). Anyway, their study suggests that the outbreak started most probably sometime between September 13 and December 7 2019, but the evidence currently available suggests that Wuhan was not the source of the outbreak - Coronavirus Outbreak May Have Started as Early as September, Scientists Say

And this paragraph jumped out at me:-



The probability must be very low, but can you imagine if it turned out that this virus actually started in the USA? Trump's head might actually explode....

The article doesn't say, but are A, B & C strains of potentially differing virulence? And which is most prevalent in which countries? Could it actually be the different strains that have caused such different death rates, rather than anything those countries have done to combat it?

 

[AZ Gull]

The article doesn't say, but are A, B & C strains of potentially differing virulence? And which is most prevalent in which countries? Could it actually be the different strains that have caused such different death rates, rather than anything those countries have done to combat it?

A few weeks ago there was at least one article that mentioned that there were two distinct strains, one more virulent than the other.

I'm sure that will be ONE of the factors that will impact upon death rates in different countries, but how significant it will be compared to the myriad of other factors remains to be seen.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Costello is giving a professional estimate, others disagree with him or say it’s far too early to say that.

Whereas the shockingly high death toll in Belgium is a fact.

I did say 'possibly'. And it wasn't the figure that was the key point I was trying to make. It was really the (possibly growing) gap between the 'claims' being made with respect to the UK strategy (world leaders etc etc) and the delivery of that strategy. As the testing, PPE and data gathering 'problems' keep unfolding on a daily basis and with government ministers not fully engaging with some of the questioning, are we doing as well as we should (and we claim)? I personally find that the credibility gap is slowly growing - and I'm not sure that the daily briefings are helping. Yesterday's was pretty dire.

 

[RossyG]

Published today:

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Published today:

View attachment 122405

This is potentially a game-changer.

 

[Mellotron]

Intriguing from Prof Sikora today.

The antibody test does work, but via comparisons against lab measures(?) they believe that a number of people are completely asymptomatic to the point that they do not even create antibodies, so would not show up as positive on an antibody test.

Potentially good and bad news at the same time.

 

[Mellotron]

Published today:

View attachment 122405

Intriguing. A dumb and obviously completely vague extrapolation to UK would suggest 9.6m or around 14% positive.

Also, that’s not including those who have had it but not produced antibodies, an even more intriguing potential further development from today.

It’s mad how much we are discovering about this virus every single day. In another week it could look completely different again - positively or negatively.

 

[The Wizard]

Similar to this study done in a German town from a week ago https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...s-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate

I do think this virus is far more prevalent than anyone knows but it’s very, very difficult to prove this is the case everywhere and it could vary wildly, for example here in Brighton where we had one of the earliest outbreaks a good percentage of us could have been exposed to a more mild version early without even realising and so the very low case rate here could be as more of us are immune, but somewhere like Birmingham that has been massively hit by the virus could have much less immunity. Its very important but without massive large scale testing without a fast result test(none of them work apparently) that will probably take months to prove anything.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Similar to this study done in a German town from a week ago https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...s-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate

I do think this virus is far more prevalent than anyone knows but it’s very, very difficult to prove this is the case everywhere and it could vary wildly, for example here in Brighton where we had one of the earliest outbreaks a good percentage of us could have been exposed to a more mild version early without even realising and so the very low case rate here could be as more of us are immune, but somewhere like Birmingham that has been massively hit by the virus could have much less immunity. Its very important but without massive large scale testing without a fast result test(none of them work apparently) that will probably take months to prove anything.

I've said this before, but I'd be interested to know what it was I came down with the Sunday night into Monday after drinking in Brighton on the Saturday of the Watford game before going to The Amex for the match in February when that outbreak was happening. Into March and people were dropping like flies at work in the couple of weeks running up to the office closing to go off to self isolate after getting symptoms and although I could have been asymptomatic, I wasn't one of them.

 

[A1X]

Of course the mad thing is that in the next 9-12 months there's going to be a massive baby boom thanks to people bored in lockdown passing a bit of time. And those babies are going to spend the next 80 years telling us how much better life was in lockdown compared to then.

 

[RossyG]

I've said this before, but I'd be interested to know what it was I came down with the Sunday night into Monday after drinking in Brighton on the Saturday of the Watford game before going to The Amex for the match in February when that outbreak was happening. Into March and people were dropping like flies at work in the couple of weeks running up to the office closing to go off to self isolate after getting symptoms and although I could have been asymptomatic, I wasn't one of them.

I came down with a fever midway through the Sheffield Wednesday cup game on January the 4th (not brought on by the lousy game).

I went in fine, by the end I was very feverish and somehow got myself home. I was Ill for a day or two, developed a dry cough, and a feeling of tight chestedness persisted for a few weeks.

In other words, all symptoms of Covid-19 but for a while it seemed too early to have got it. Now people are talking about it having been around since before then, as early as September.

I’d love to know if I’d had it. It couldn’t have been flu as it was over in a day or two and it wasn’t a cold either. At the time I thought it was a relapse of the Norovirus I’d had (a mild dose) four weeks earlier (although I wasn’t sick). But for a while now I’ve been wondering...

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Intriguing from Prof Sikora today.

The antibody test does work, but via comparisons against lab measures(?) they believe that a number of people are completely asymptomatic to the point that they do not even create antibodies, so would not show up as positive on an antibody test.

Potentially good and bad news at the same time.

From what I understand, those under 40 years old have greater propensity to harbour in an asymptomatic manner.