Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Deleted member 22389]

Looks like Liverpool v Madrid, the Cheltenham Festival and the Cardiff Sterophonics concert will be boosting the death figures very shortly.

Absolute bloody madness these events went ahead. I really hope the 5,000+ daily cases we are seeing is the peak, we get this for a few more days and it starts going down.

 

[CliveWalkerWingWizard]

At some point there will be an inquest, unfortunately I think it will show that we got this wrong. Who knows what happened in meetings in late February/early March?
How much influence did cummings have? Were the government given model decisions based on deaths versus the economy? Probably. The herd immunity scenario cost us vital time and now projections are showing that we are going to have more deaths than any other European country. There was almost an arrogance that our epidemiologists were the best in the world, so we have got it right and countries like Greece have got it wrong, now look at the number of deaths in Greece with only 500ish icu beds. We are likely to be locked down for several more months, the idea of lockdown fatigue was just a red herring. The nightingale centres could have been ready weeks earlier, Ppe could have been stockpiled, more tests could have been given. I am now fairly certain that time will tell that the government got this totally wrong, I am not saying that the decisions were easy, but the purpose of the government is to get this right. IMO they didn’t.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Cummings is a ****

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[Green Cross Code Man]

Why does the Irish lady not take into account median age? The UK has a median age 3 and a half years older than Ireland. That would affect mortalities by a significant amount.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Regardless of what the Irish tweeter does or doesn't factor in, it appears that we are going to be the worst hit country in Europe.


So, this :

Cummings is a ****

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[Billy Seagull]

All very easy in hindsight that the events all went ahead but let’s not forget at that stage everyone was still commuting, the tubes were mobbed, the schools, shops, pubs etc etc were all still open. As a racing fan I was surprised that Cheltenham went ahead and whilst I’d didn’t attend myself, I did travel to London to get my bets on two days that week which would have put me in much higher danger than going to Cheltenham given how packed the trains and busses were.

Let’s face it, the only reason we didn’t play Arsenal was because Arteta had it, if he hadn’t then the game would have been played.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

All very easy in hindsight that the events all went ahead but let’s not forget at that stage everyone was still commuting, the tubes were mobbed, the schools, shops, pubs etc etc were all still open. As a racing fan I was surprised that Cheltenham went ahead and whilst I’d didn’t attend myself, I did travel to London to get my bets on two days that week which would have put me in much higher danger than going to Cheltenham given how packed the trains and busses were.

Let’s face it, the only reason we didn’t play Arsenal was because Arteta had it, if he hadn’t then the game would have been played.

Plenty were saying it beforehand with foresight as well.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Spain recorded 2,900 new cases, lowest I have seen it in weeks.

 

[Bodian]

Let’s face it, the only reason we didn’t play Arsenal was because Arteta had it, if he hadn’t then the game would have been played.

Weren't all PL games called off?

 

[Rugrat]

Spain recorded 2,900 new cases, lowest I have seen it in weeks.

True, but still a godawful high number. My fear is that when we start to see a sustained drop off in numbers people (maybe even the Gov't) will think we've broken the back, life can get back to normal.

If it's difficult to control behaviours when the numbers are rising how on earth is it done when the numbers are falling?

 

[Machiavelli]

*Bad decisions

This timeline of the government's response is pretty damning https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/11/...ts-woeful-response-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/

Exactly. That's the key thing to take out of this. The Irish government, about whom the English often like to joke that they're thick, made better decisions than the UK government (who, in turn, made better decisions than the Swedish government -- although the situation there is somewhat different to the 'non-lockdown' view). As a similar but far more extreme comparison, Brazil's official response has been dreadful and chaotic, while Argentina's has been one of the better ones.

 

[Machiavelli]

And then those who were infected by those attending those events. Our government have (and continue to do so) really let us down. An absolute disgrace.

Dominic Cummings convinced Boris that herd immunity was the way to go? If that's the case he needs to be held accountable for this Monumental disaster.

Yes, you're spot on here. And I wonder how our response would have compared if Cummings had removed the civil service.

 

[Machiavelli]

Weren't all PL games called off?

Not immediately, but that followed soon after, and I'm pretty sure within 24 hours.

 

[Machiavelli]

"Lies, damn lies and statistics."

I love a stat but the quote has never been more true than now.

I think the only guaranteed fact that we can agree on is that the USA has made a complete and utter bollocks of this situation. The rest of it, we'll have to wait and see.

It will take years to collate real data, and even then it won't be completely accurate.

The stuff we're seeing at the moment is "best guess" at best. Which is completely understandable. What else can anyone do?

Well, I might be wrong on this, but I think what comes out of this is that those countries that followed WHO's advice will come out best from this. Unless their guidance transpires to be problematic (which it might, but I doubt), I hope that there is a re-evaluation of their role and that we decide to trust these international experts.

 

[atomised]

Looks like Liverpool v Madrid, the Cheltenham Festival and the Cardiff Sterophonics concert will be boosting the death figures very shortly.

I'm sure there were many concerts that week. Seems harsh to blame the stereophonics alone.

In fact it appears morrissey played wembley arena that very night

 

[WATFORD zero]

Has anyone seen any further mention of non hospital death figures ?

I saw somewhere that these were going to be added into the figures in the last few days, but haven't seen these reflected anywhere. If they have been added in (and I believe they are fairly significant in total) then is this masking an underlying fall. Unfortunately, personally I suspect not and that the actual figures are still being understated, which would make current analysis of trends wrong. I'm just not sure to what degree

I'm wondering if we will have to wait until the next release of the ONS detailed data which it seems is always at least a week behind the current data.

 

[RossyG]

Well, I might be wrong on this, but I think what comes out of this is that those countries that followed WHO's advice will come out best from this. Unless their guidance transpires to be problematic (which it might, but I doubt), I hope that there is a re-evaluation of their role and that we decide to trust these international experts.

Actually the WHO have been pretty awful. They announced that the virus wasn’t catching and said that people from the affected area should still be allowed to fly into every country in the world.





And the head of the WHO played silly identity politics games and sucked up to the Chinese communist regime.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Has anyone seen any further mention of non hospital death figures ?

I saw somewhere that these were going to be added into the figures in the last few days, but haven't seen these reflected anywhere. If they have been added in (and I believe they are fairly significant in total) then is this masking an underlying fall. Unfortunately, personally I suspect not and that the actual figures are still being understated, which would make current analysis of trends wrong. I'm just not sure to what degree

I'm wondering if we will have to wait until the next release of the ONS detailed data which it seems is always at least a week behind the current data.

Basically your post is rather similar to an article in The Sunday Times today entitled 'Coronavirus in the UK: why calculating the death toll is so difficult.'

Allow me to summarise it:

Some hospitals don't report deaths at the weekend, some do, different cut off times for reporting exist in the 4 nations of The UK, The ONS think 4% of Covid-19 deaths are happening in care homes, Care England think it's much higher, possibly as much as a 1000, there were 1000 more deaths in total based on the 5 year average in the week to 27th March, but only 500 were officially Covid-19, some of the other 500 could be untested Covid-19 victims but we don't know how many, we could be overestimating, but 'Most experts believe any overcounting is vastly outweighed by undercounting'.........

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...ting-the-death-toll-is-so-difficult-pxcn9ppkw

My conclusion from reading the article - I think it's difficult.

 

[ManOfSussex]

And the head of the WHO played silly identity politics games and sucked up to the Chinese communist regime.

View attachment 122087

That's the same head of the WHO who appointed Robert Mugabe as a 'WHO Goodwill Ambassador' for non-communicable diseases in Africa because Zimbabwe is 'a country that places universal health coverage and health promotion at the centre of its policies to provide health care to all.'

I get the distinct impression history will not be kind to Tedros Adhanom.

 

[RossyG]

Exactly. I’m all for following expert advice, but I wouldn’t include the WHO in that. It’s a political organisation more than a scientific one.