Europe: In or Out

[Pavilionaire]

I find it amusing that all the negative consequences of Brexit I have raised, a recession, moving Europe's financial capital, expats in legal limbo, weaker environmental laws and regulations, the relocation of industry to the continent, weak negotiating positions when renegotiating, a loss of leverage when signing new treaties with third parties, the security implications - moving the border back to Dover from Calais, not to mention no longer having access to Europol, having to follow EU laws and regulations but unable to influence them etc etc etc

These are all what-ifs, maybes, who knows? "We will probably negotiate good deals, and they need us more than we need them! and this is scaremongering, you can't know what will happen..."

Well even if things turned out better than expected I can tell you right now all the benefits we currently receive, the advantages we presently enjoy and the influence we actually possess right now. Brexit requires so many maybes and potentialities that you have to take a gigantic leap into the dark. I prefer the certainty of present reality to a post-Brexit wonderland where we become more prosperous and happy simply because the shackles of bureaucracy have been lifted. Rather than Project Fear I think Project Reality, or Project Certainty is more apt - as opposed to Brexit - Project Close Your Eyes and Hope for a Soft Landing.

Even if we were to exit and things remained exactly the same, I'd still prefer to have things the same and be part of a Union of states than be outside of it.

There is a intangible benefit of knowing that security among European states is "locked in" with a Union, effectively an insurance policy of peace and co-operation. Some people take it for granted that we'll have exactly the same level of security with a Brexit and that doesn't make any sense to me.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I prefer the certainty of present reality to a post-Brexit wonderland where we become more prosperous and happy simply because the shackles of bureaucracy have been lifted. Rather than Project Fear I think Project Reality, or Project Certainty is more apt - as opposed to Brexit - Project Close Your Eyes and Hope for a Soft Landing.

I don't think anyone is claiming leaving will be a walk in the park or not have at least some negative consequences but the 'certainty' of the present is equally fraught with danger and for many people on balance not worth continuing with. Especially as there appears to be such little appetite to bring in real reforms and a much needed change in direction.

Europe seems paralysed by migration problems, societal cohesion problems, economic problems, speaking of which ...

The eurozone crisis is back on the boil (Pro EU source)

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/12/eurozone-crisis-back-on-boil

#scaremongering!

 

[BigGully]

I don't think anyone is claiming leaving will be a walk in the park or not have at least some negative consequences but the 'certainty' of the present is equally fraught with danger and for many people on balance not worth continuing with. Especially as there appears to be such little appetite to bring in real reforms and a much needed change in direction.

Europe seems paralysed by migration problems, societal cohesion problems, economic problems, speaking of which ...

The eurozone crisis is back on the boil (Pro EU source)

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/12/eurozone-crisis-back-on-boil

#scaremongering!

I am claiming it, compared to the utter shambles it is now, yes I am claiming it 'will be a walk in the park' ......

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I am claiming it, compared to the utter shambles it is now, yes I am claiming it 'will be a walk in the park' ......

I stand corrected!

 

[5ways]

I don't think anyone is claiming leaving will be a walk in the park or not have at least some negative consequences but the 'certainty' of the present is equally fraught with danger and for many people on balance not worth continuing with. Especially as there appears to be such little appetite to bring in real reforms and a much needed change in direction.

Europe seems paralysed by migration problems, societal cohesion problems, economic problems, speaking of which ...

The eurozone crisis is back on the boil (Pro EU source)

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/12/eurozone-crisis-back-on-boil

#scaremongering!

"D̶e̶a̶t̶h̶ Brexit is so terribly final, while l̶i̶f̶e̶ continued membership of the European Union is full of possibilities.” - T. Lannister

 

[pastafarian]

What about the expats ?

"If the UK votes to leave in the EU referendum, two million British citizens could possibly lose their residency, employment and pension rights overnight – but no one is talking about it

The UK is acknowledged to be the country in the EU with the highest number of its citizens living abroad. No one knows exactly how many UK citizens have taken advantage of free movement, but estimates are that there are more or less the same number as EU citizens in the UK (about two million.)"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/12151896/Expats-are-being-frozen-out-on-Europe.html

scaremongering

Spain, France, Germany et al are not going to start forcibly repatriating expat Brits if we leave the EU,no EU gov has even hinted they are even thinking about doing it

Before the EU existed in its current form,Brits could and did live and work in Europe as Europeans did live and work in the UK,the same will apply if we left the EU.All you are moaning about is people having to get the correct paperwork,

 

[JC Footy Genius]

"D̶e̶a̶t̶h̶ continued membership of the European Union is so terribly final, while l̶i̶f̶e̶ Brexit is full of possibilities.” - T. Lannister

Corrected for you.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Pound has weakened against the Euro only slightly but could it weaken any further ?
regards
DR

 

[5ways]

Were you a 'join the Euro' serious question ?

Before my time...

 

[beorhthelm]

Even if we were to exit and things remained exactly the same, I'd still prefer to have things the same and be part of a Union of states than be outside of it.

There is a intangible benefit of knowing that security among European states is "locked in" with a Union, effectively an insurance policy of peace and co-operation. Some people take it for granted that we'll have exactly the same level of security with a Brexit and that doesn't make any sense to me.

as an outer, i too would be quite happy to be in a union with Europe. just not what we have and where we are headed. trade, free movement, all fine by me. not directing the minutiae of laws (often based on a system incompatible with ours) and regulations, like telling us we can or cant have have a 600w hairdryers and kettles. petty example because its a petty regulation that shows the problem of unnecessary (and ineffective) regulation.

 

[pastafarian]

moving the border back to Dover from Calais, not to mention no longer having access to Europol,

Lets clear a couple of things up so you dont need to scaremonger again on these issues.

The border treaty between France and Britain concerning Dover is nothing to do with the EU and its relevance is nothing to do with us staying in or out.
The French interior ministry has clarified this issue only just recently saying they have NO intention of pulling out of this treaty,to do so would encourage mass movement to Calais and would encourage a humanitarian crisis,they have no intention to start this off.

Europol is not simply a tool for EU police and security forces only.
The EU Council appoints a Director,who not only runs Europol but who can also decide to work with other countries and their internal security organisations.
Europol work with and share info with many countries outside of the EU including Canada Russia USA Australia Turkey and the United Nations.

Are you really saying we would be blocked out of security issues if we left the EU........i would say if the Director chose to do this he would have to provide a very strong argument to his bosses as to why .

 

[5ways]

Lets clear a couple of things up so you dont need to scaremonger again on these issues.

The border treaty between France and Britain concerning Dover is nothing to do with the EU and its relevance is nothing to do with us staying in or out.
The French interior ministry has clarified this issue only just recently saying they have NO intention of pulling out of this treaty,to do so would encourage mass movement to Calais and would encourage a humanitarian crisis,they have no intention to start this off.

Europol is not simply a tool for EU police and security forces only.
The EU Council appoints a Director,who not only runs Europol but who can also decide to work with other countries and their internal security organisations.
Europol work with and share info with many countries outside of the EU including Canada Russia USA Australia Turkey and the United Nations.

Are you really saying we would be blocked out of security issues if we left the EU........i would say if the Director chose to do this he would have to provide a very strong argument to his bosses as to why .

I am concerned that could happen, certainly. I was referencing the comments made by the Prime Minister (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-355192100) and the Europol Director (https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/696834547262947328, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35524017). Two people I would consider good sources.

 

[pastafarian]

I am concerned that could happen, certainly. I was referencing the comments made by the Prime Minister (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-355192100) and the Europol Director (https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/696834547262947328, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35524017). Two people I would consider good sources.

neither of who have said we will no longer have any access to or be completely blocked out from sharing security info

 

[5ways]

neither of who have said we will no longer have any access to or be completely blocked out from sharing security info

The UK will have to leave Europol, we will lose access to that network until an agreement is reached. External access will be "more costly" and "much less effective". That is what the director of Europol says here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03j1fyn

 

[pastafarian]

The UK will have to leave Europol, we will lose access to that network until an agreement is reached. External access will be "more costly" and "much less effective". That is what the director of Europol says here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03j1fyn

Yes we would have to leave the Europol framework,but plenty of other countries work with Europol and are not in the EU or even in Europe.

You seem to be cherry picking quotes,he said

"whether the UK is in or out of the EU,it will still have to have significant even more advanced cooperation with its European neighbours,it can do that outside of the EU of course,but it will be more costly and certainly much less effective."

I cant see where this means we will blocked from sharing security info or being involved with Europol at all which is what you are alluding

 

[Soulman]

Yes we would have to leave the Europol framework,but plenty of other countries work with Europol and are not in the EU or even in Europe.

You seem to be cherry picking quotes,he said

"whether the UK is in or out of the EU,it will still have to have significant even more advanced cooperation with its European neighbours,it can do that outside of the EU of course,but it will be more costly and certainly much less effective."

I cant see where this means we will blocked from sharing security info or being involved with Europol at all which is what you are alluding

If it is a bit more costly do you think we could take the money out of the 350m a week will be saving after leaving.

 

[Gwylan]

If it is a bit more costly do you think we could take the money out of the 350m a week will be saving after leaving.

One thing that does bother me about the out campaign is this figure of £55m a day that I keep seeing quoted as the cost of EU membership. My understanding is that it's about half that. According to the Telegraph (a paper that is anti-EU so there's no bias here) it's £9.5 bn a year (which works out about £26m a day) and that's higher than was originally expected.

There are plenty of arguments for leaving the EU but inflating the cost of membership, IMHO, is detrimental as it allows opponents to say they're lying about that, what else are they lying about?

 

[jgmcdee]

what else are they lying about?

That if it wasn't for the EU rules then the UK would bring immigration down to below the 100,000 per year figure they promised in 2010?

 

[Soulman]

One thing that does bother me about the out campaign is this figure of £55m a day that I keep seeing quoted as the cost of EU membership. My understanding is that it's about half that. According to the Telegraph (a paper that is anti-EU so there's no bias here) it's £9.5 bn a year (which works out about £26m a day) and that's higher than was originally expected.

There are plenty of arguments for leaving the EU but inflating the cost of membership, IMHO, is detrimental as it allows opponents to say they're lying about that, what else are they lying about?

Farage claimed that, in this direct sense, EU membership costs £55 million a day. The figure originated in an earlier statement from UKIP, based on official data showing that total debits on current transfers with the EU in 2010 and 2011 were just under £20 billion. Such debits are known to be dominated by payments between the UK government and EU institutions. If £20 billion is divided by 365, the answer is indeed £55 million.

Clegg disputed the number, protesting correctly that it overlooks the UK's credits from the EU and suggesting that the net figure is much lower. Given that Clegg is Deputy Prime Minister, a reasonable expectation might be that he would have the correct sums at his fingertips and could reel them off confidently.

But that assumes the government machine can produce a single set of correct statistics. Perhaps surprisingly, this assumption breaks down when analysts delve into official sources.

Every year the Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces the so-called Pink Book, an authoritative statement of the UK's balance of payments. Last year's edition gave the numbers for 2012, showing debit payments to EU institutions of £16,428 million, credits of £5,913 million and a net balance of minus £10,515 million. The figures are all there in black and white, and haven't been made up by either UKIP members or Liberal Democrats.

Also every year the Treasury prepares a White Paper on European Union finances. The results of the latest exercise were published last November. It lists gross payments to the EU of £15,746 million, to be offset by the UK rebate of £3,110 million and public sector receipts from the EU of £4,168 million, and an implied "net contribution to the EU Budget" of £8,468 million.

On the face of it, however, none of the 2012 figures support Farage's £55 million a day claim. But that is to forget that we do now have a great deal of official information about 2013. According to the ONS, total debits on current transfers to the EU28 rose once more last year, to £22,628 million, equivalent to no less than £62 million a day.

Even allowing for the fact that a proportion of the £22,628 million has nothing to do with the European Commission and its agencies, a number approaching £55 million a day is far from absurd, even if it is not plainly correct. Every figure in this subject seems to be open to challenge and contradiction.

Again, the figures are there in black and white, and in no obvious sense are partisan or biased.
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/4948/what_is_the_eu_s_true_cost

 

[The Rivet]

Farage claimed that, in this direct sense, EU membership costs £55 million a day. The figure originated in an earlier statement from UKIP, based on official data showing that total debits on current transfers with the EU in 2010 and 2011 were just under £20 billion. Such debits are known to be dominated by payments between the UK government and EU institutions. If £20 billion is divided by 365, the answer is indeed £55 million.

Clegg disputed the number, protesting correctly that it overlooks the UK's credits from the EU and suggesting that the net figure is much lower. Given that Clegg is Deputy Prime Minister, a reasonable expectation might be that he would have the correct sums at his fingertips and could reel them off confidently.

But that assumes the government machine can produce a single set of correct statistics. Perhaps surprisingly, this assumption breaks down when analysts delve into official sources.

Every year the Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces the so-called Pink Book, an authoritative statement of the UK's balance of payments. Last year's edition gave the numbers for 2012, showing debit payments to EU institutions of £16,428 million, credits of £5,913 million and a net balance of minus £10,515 million. The figures are all there in black and white, and haven't been made up by either UKIP members or Liberal Democrats.

Also every year the Treasury prepares a White Paper on European Union finances. The results of the latest exercise were published last November. It lists gross payments to the EU of £15,746 million, to be offset by the UK rebate of £3,110 million and public sector receipts from the EU of £4,168 million, and an implied "net contribution to the EU Budget" of £8,468 million.

On the face of it, however, none of the 2012 figures support Farage's £55 million a day claim. But that is to forget that we do now have a great deal of official information about 2013. According to the ONS, total debits on current transfers to the EU28 rose once more last year, to £22,628 million, equivalent to no less than £62 million a day.

Even allowing for the fact that a proportion of the £22,628 million has nothing to do with the European Commission and its agencies, a number approaching £55 million a day is far from absurd, even if it is not plainly correct. Every figure in this subject seems to be open to challenge and contradiction.

Again, the figures are there in black and white, and in no obvious sense are partisan or biased.
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/4948/what_is_the_eu_s_true_cost

Soulman I salute you! Fantastic arguments against very determined opponents. Well Done.