Europe: In or Out

[cunning fergus]

Not always easy, and not an exact science, but there are ways to do this. Ordinal categorical modelling is worth Googe-ing....and we all know how much you like to Google.

Jeez, I must really get under your skin..........I must be on to something with you meine kleine kartoffelknodel.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Jeez, I must really get under your skin..........I must be on to something with you meine kleine kartoffelknodel.

Hardly, I'm bored waiting for a taxi to turn up and killing some time. Give it a read, it's a fascinating subject.

 

[cunning fergus]

do you mean your ability to cut and paste something from the Internet? Im sure the kids also know how to do this.

Here you are...........

http://www.mercatornet.com/articles/view/playing_the_man_not_the_ball/10623

I should have sent this to you years ago.........

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Here you are...........

http://www.mercatornet.com/articles/view/playing_the_man_not_the_ball/10623

I should have sent this to you years ago.........

Says the man who nearly always leaves a smug little personal dig at the end of his replies to me.

Have a nice day and enjoy the game

 

[jgmcdee]

I agree with your underlying point that Cameron is good on rhetoric/deception but poor on action.The government has completely failed in reducing immigration to their stated aim, tens of thousands. If we vote to leave then one of if not the biggest factor will be immigration, any government who then presides over continuing mass immigration will have no excuses or place to hide and will likely face electoral oblivion if they allow it to continue.

From what I can tell, the biggest issue is immigration regardless of if we stay or leave. I continue to hear this "we need control over our borders" argument, yet the majority of immigrants are from outside of the EU where we do have this control (asylum seekers excepted, who were ~20,000). I don't understand why Cameron has had the power since the day he walked in to government to reduce immigration to at least half its current level but has not done so.

The numbers are substantial quibbling over the exact amount isn't particularly important.What is the figure you think is accurate?

One of the numbers that takes in to account the fact that the EU gives money back to the UK government and individuals would be nice. Those seem to be in the £23-28m range. And given that the cost of the EU is one of the common arguments that is used against it then yes I do think that the exact amount, or at least a realistic estimate, is particularly important. If I give you £20 and you give me £10 back it hasn't cost me £20.

Large scale immigration much of it from the EU has had a significant effect on job availability, rates of pay for the lowest earners, housing, demands for public services even the costs of translation services to name but a few. You may be right in apportioning some blame to the current and previous governments in allowing this to occur eg Labour not setting up transitional controls to restrict eastern European migration in 2004 but once again a vote to leave would make it impossible for this status quo to continue.

But much of it isn't from the EU. The 2014 numbers show that the majority of immigration was from outside of the EU.

Are you happy for ongoing mass migration to continue, if yes why, if not how do we control it if we remain in the EU?

I'm not happy for ongoing migration to continue at this level, no. But the government either has the will to control it or it doesn't. We can't say what they would do if they had control over EU immigration, but we can look at their record of immigration from outside of the EU, where they do have control. And for a government that promised to reduce immigration to below 100,000 it's been abysmal.

 

[cunning fergus]

Says the man who nearly always leaves a smug little personal dig at the end of his replies to me.

Have a nice day and enjoy the game

Lieber Topf, mit freundlichen Grüßen, Wasserkocher.

 

[brighton fella]

I would have thought that seeing as the population of Brighton and Hove is around about 280,000, and that after subtracting emigration from immigration in 2015, the net immigration was 330,000, then this amount of immigration per YEAR, can not be sustained. Mention controlled immigration and you are immediately shoved in the racist camp.
The stats were put up by Gwylan "The group that is most firmly opposed is the Over-65s; the group most firmly in support are the Under-30s and in large numbers".
Well these youngsters MIGHT be the ones that in the future complain about lack of school places, infrastructure and jobs etc.
I worry for my children and their future if immigration is not controlled.
So for this reason and many others i have to vote OUT.

mate the under 30's are a lost cause, what do you expect when they have been brainwashed into accepting multiculturalism and political correctness since birth, by both schools, universities and media.

it is not so much the under 30's that i have a problem with, it is more the older generation for not pointing out the obvious to them... i did so with my kids so why cant the rest ?

bods my age who believe in this kind of nonsense are plain daft and proper silly in the head, pathetic idiots who are unable to think for themselves... . .

 

[jgmcdee]

£23 million a day?
£55 million a day?
£63 million a day?

Pick a number,it matters not.
£whatever millions a day it happens to be its still an astonishing amount of money per day that would be better spent in this country,for its citizens.

£1 a day is too much to be a part of this undemocratic gravy train.

So what % of GDP do you think that membership of the EU adds for us? Is it really 0, in that there are no trade benefits at all to being a part of the EU?

Let's assume the £55m a day that Farage so loves (it's too high, but we'll use it anyway). That equates to about £20bn a year. The UK's GDP is around £2tn, so our worst case cost of the EU is 1% of our GDP. If we lost more than that by leaving the EU we would be out of pocket.

So, would we? It is of course difficult to find any numbers for a hypothetical situation but it's not hard to see that London punches massively above its weight in terms of the financial markets, and that this isn't some God-given right. Look at the fall of Hong Kong in the past decade as an example as to what can happen if a country decides to steal another country's lunch. So regardless of if it would or would not happen, it definitely makes it more likely that it could happen and the EU (more specifically, Germany) would have both the incentive and the ability to do so.

 

[jgmcdee]

"On the face of it, however, none of the 2012 figures support Farage's £55 million a day claim. But that is to forget that we do now have a great deal of official information about 2013. According to the ONS, total debits on current transfers to the EU28 rose once more last year, to £22,628 million, equivalent to no less than £62 million a day."

Quoting the same thing again and again in an attempt to make it true doesn't make it so. Yes we pay money to the EU, but they give a bunch of it back. It's the net figure that is relevant in this case. To quote from the most recent House of Commons library paper on the EU[1] "The UK’s net contribution to the EU Budget in 2015 is estimated at £8.5 billion".

Actually as you are quoting 2014 and not 2015, the figures were
641,000 people immigrated to the UK in 2014, a statistically significant increase from 526,000 in 2013. There were statistically significant increases for immigration of EU (non-British) citizens (up 67,000 to 268,000) and non-EU citizens (up 42,000 to 290,000). Immigration of British citizens increased by 7,000 to 83,000, but this was not statistically significant.
Remember that 330,000 was the net amount after taking into consideration emigration.

Yes I was quoting 2014, which is why I started the paragraph "In 2014".

"statistically significant" means nothing in this context because the numbers are not estimates. We don't need confidence intervals when we have actualities rather than probabilities.

And yes 330,000 is the net amount. I use it because the net amount is the one that matters. It is the number that shows the change in our population, which in turn maps to the requirements of our services. If during a year 2 million children enter the UK and 1 million children leave then at the end of the year we need 1 million more school places, not 2. The same goes for housing, benefits, jobs etc. If you want to provide a reason why the gross numbers are relevant then please do so.

I have asked you a number of questions regarding your assertions but so far you have not answered them. I look forward to your responses and continuing the discussion.

 

[Triggaaar]

It's a cut 'n' paste job, and argument isn't exactly strong. It goes:
...
So perhaps the number Farage quoted is close to being right after all.

Well it's not exactly weak either. The point is, is there a good reason to believe his figures are largely exaggerated? It seems not.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

The main reason I want us to leave the EU is because of our open borders, we have no control and it doesn't matter what Cameron tries to get us it still want make any difference whatsoever. 330,000+ people a year is far too many people, end of.

 

[jgmcdee]

Well it's not exactly weak either. The point is, is there a good reason to believe his figures are largely exaggerated? It seems not.

If I give you £20 and you give me £10 back, then I go around claiming that I gave you £20, would you find this reasonable?

Again quoting from the latest House of Commons library paper on the EU "The UK’s net contribution to the EU Budget in 2015 is estimated at £8.5 billion", so that's £23m per day not £55m.

 

[jgmcdee]

The main reason I want us to leave the EU is because of our open borders, we have no control and it doesn't matter what Cameron tries to get us it still want make any difference whatsoever. 330,000+ people a year is far too many people, end of.

We had control over 197,000 of the 320,000 in 2014 as they came from outside of the EU, and still let them in.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

We had control over 197,000 of the 320,000 in 2014 as they came from outside of the EU, and still let them in.

I agree we do have a control over this part, but getting control of the EU part here is the biggest issue. We just don't have any ideas who is going to come here in the future, what with all the problems in Syria and people piggy backing on to these people pretending to be Syrians is very bad deal for Europe. If these people don't go home one day and claim European citizenship that is an open border to us at the end of the day. Cameron promised us all he would reduce migration, he hasn't. In fact I would say it's getting as bad as it was under Labour.

 

[Triggaaar]

If I give you £20 and you give me £10 back, then I go around claiming that I gave you £20, would you find this reasonable?

If you gave me £20 in 2012 and I gave you £10 back, and then you went around claiming you gave me £20, I'd think it was reasonable if you'd given me £30 in 2015, with me paying £10 back.

Again quoting from the latest House of Commons library paper on the EU "The UK’s net contribution to the EU Budget in 2015 is estimated at £8.5 billion", so that's £23m per day not £55m.

If the £8.5b is correct for 2015 then of course I agree with you. I was just reading the figures Soulman quoted, and the contribution appeared to have been rising.

 

[crookie]

The main reason I want us to leave the EU is because of our open borders, we have no control and it doesn't matter what Cameron tries to get us it still want make any difference whatsoever. 330,000+ people a year is far too many people, end of.

This sadly. Spiralling house prices and increasing pressure on already stretched public services is becoming intolerable and I fear for my children's future. If the EU was still a union of countries with similar economies and standards of living, this mass migration would never have happened. Beaurocrats with grandiose visions of an ever increasing empire, Turkey, Moldova and Ukraine next ? Millions more impoverished people eligible to come ? No thanks. Sadly for me, as a Liberal and historically pro-european, I'm seriously considering voting out

 

[Soulman]

This sadly. Spiralling house prices and increasing pressure on already stretched public services is becoming intolerable and I fear for my children's future. If the EU was still a union of countries with similar economies and standards of living, this mass migration would never have happened. Beaurocrats with grandiose visions of an ever increasing empire, Turkey, Moldova and Ukraine next ? Millions more impoverished people eligible to come ? No thanks. Sadly for me, as a Liberal and historically pro-european, I'm seriously considering voting out

It seems that a few pro EU voters are now considering voting out and the reasons you state are why.

 

[jgmcdee]

I agree we do have a control over this part, but getting control of the EU part here is the biggest issue.

I genuinely don't understand how you can say this. In 2014, the last year for which I can find figures, net immigration from outside the EU was greater than that from the EU. The UK government could cut immigration by two thirds if it chose to do so yet it does not choose to do so. How can you say that giving them more power to reduce immigration will fix the issue when they have shown that when they have the power they do not use it?

We just don't have any ideas who is going to come here in the future, what with all the problems in Syria and people piggy backing on to these people pretending to be Syrians is very bad deal for Europe. If these people don't go home one day and claim European citizenship that is an open border to us at the end of the day.

Supposition. Maybe, maybe not, but I'm trying to focus on the realities of what has happened rather than guess what might happen in the future.

Cameron promised us all he would reduce migration, he hasn't. In fact I would say it's getting as bad as it was under Labour.

The first part is what I'm trying to understand. Cameron had the power over 197,000/320,000 of immigration in 2014 and did nothing (and it was 143,000/209,000 in 2013 so it's not like he wasn't aware where the majority were coming from). Again, how can you say that giving them more power to reduce immigration will fix the issue when they have shown that when they have the power they do not use it?

 

[5ways]

Yes we would have to leave the Europol framework,but plenty of other countries work with Europol and are not in the EU or even in Europe.

You seem to be cherry picking quotes,he said

"whether the UK is in or out of the EU,it will still have to have significant even more advanced cooperation with its European neighbours,it can do that outside of the EU of course,but it will be more costly and certainly much less effective."

I cant see where this means we will blocked from sharing security info or being involved with Europol at all which is what you are alluding

I'd hardly say that is cherry picking quotes. The point stands regardless; we would have to leave the Europol framework and it would be "more costly" and "much less effective" as an external partner.

 

[5ways]

Yes we would have to leave the Europol framework,but plenty of other countries work with Europol and are not in the EU or even in Europe.

You seem to be cherry picking quotes,he said

"whether the UK is in or out of the EU,it will still have to have significant even more advanced cooperation with its European neighbours,it can do that outside of the EU of course,but it will be more costly and certainly much less effective."

I cant see where this means we will blocked from sharing security info or being involved with Europol at all which is what you are alluding

I can concede saying "lose access" is not fair.