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As I say above though we won't save £8.5bn, or anywhere near it. If we want to still be in the single market (which we will), we'll still have to contribute. Norway is just one example I know, but they pay 68% as much per person per year as we do to the EU, even though they're not in it! So...

I saw GB women v Brazil at Wembley at the Olympics. It was an 80,000 sell out and actually quite a good day out. It was a very different day out to watching men's football - the atmosphere was completely different as a huge percentage of the crowd was families - but everyone enjoyed themselves...

Assuming this figure is correct (I don't know, but I'm not arguing with it here - working on the assumption that it is), that's £131 per person per year. Norway - who are not in the EU - pay the EU £89 per person per year. You can use the amount we pay to the EU as an argument if you like, but...

I don't think that's going to be written on the ballot paper. You really have no thoughts at all about the contradictory options being presented by Leave?

Ironically, both of those things could be completely wrong. E.g. the Norway model - which has been advocated by some of the out camp: 1) Norway has a HIGHER per capita immigration than the UK 2) Norway has to play by the EU trade rules, but has NO vote on them, i.e. we would have even less...

I'm not sure continuing to be bound by the same trade rules, but having precisely zero say over them, counts as a step forward in any way. Either way though, I think Leave would stand a much bigger chance if they could unite around one idea of what a post-leave UK would be.

While PPF continues to bang on about his imaginary 60% poll, I think it's (genuinely) quite interesting that the latest (real) poll has Remain & Leave dead level, with 17% undecided: Reuters It's all going to be how those undecideds split. My instinct says that as polling day gets close, anyone...

I know, right, bloody laissez-faire loving tory:

I'm going home now. Hope you find some other fish and have a lovely evening xx

:fishing: :fishing: :fishing: Everyone can see what I've asked you for is the workings that get from the rates to the 60% you quote, not the rates themselves. Nice try.

Ha - true, but it seemed pretty hypocritical when accusing biggully of generalising!

I'm pretty sure that until you show either a link or your own workings then absolutely nobody is going to believe that :fishing:

Fair enough - I apologise about my own generalisation about the Tories then. Agreed. I got far more into this debate that I intended - I only wanted to distinguish between the EU referendum & Euro currency debates!

I sound like I don't believe you. Which is exactly right. I can link to some markets that price it at almost precisely a 2/3 chance of Remain: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result If that were wildly wrong then those with the...

What?

What? I can see the exchange rates - I don't see how you get from them to a 60% chance of leaving the EU. Is that your own calculation - if so show your workings? If not show your link?

Not really. Those advocating LEAVE are all over the place with what they say we're voting for. "We'll be like Norway", "We'll be like Switzerland", "We'll be like Canada", "We're Britain, we'll be unique and have our own deals". I think it's as clear as mud what a leave vote would actually be...

Well, you could just ignore then because they were wrong before. We've all been wrong before though, so seems a bit daft. Well our own Prime Minister & Chancellor fall in this camp, I'd imagine. I don't remember David Cameron - or any Tories - calling for us to join the Euro, but they're at...

I replied twice so maybe you missed the other one - where is this connection from the financial markets to this 60% you quote? Can you give us a link?

If they're wrong, they're worth looking at for other reasons. 2/1 on a 60% likelihood? Worth filling your boots...