60 %

[KingstonSeagull]

Why don't we have a poll on here... again if I missed the first one..... and repeat it every 3 weeks or so... we are a very representative group... male orientated yes... but it should give a good indication where opinion is leaning.

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Put one up.

 

[heathgate]

I can't on Tapatalk.... and not on pc for a few days.

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[KingstonSeagull]

I can't on Tapatalk.... and not on pc for a few days.

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Sorry let me use correct English.

I have put one up*

 

[DTES]

Doesn't mean they'll vote that way. There is zero chance of the vote to leave winning. Whether that's a good thing or not is not at all clear.

I reckon there is about a 95% chance of an out vote.

The betting markets currently have it as 67% chance of Remain v 33% chance of Leave. One of you could make a fortune if you follow how certain you are...

 

[sparkie]

The betting markets currently have it as 67% chance of Remain v 33% chance of Leave. One of you could make a fortune if you follow how certain you are...

I don't bet so it won't be me.

 

[Sussex Nomad]

Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last 500 years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish, with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans, and with the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now, when it's worked so well?
We had to break the whole thing up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it's just like old times.

Sir Humphrey​

 

[Spicy]

Doesn't mean they'll vote that way. There is zero chance of the vote to leave winning. Whether that's a good thing or not is not at all clear.

Wrong!

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

where you seeing this?

financial markets
regards
DR

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

The betting markets currently have it as 67% chance of Remain v 33% chance of Leave. One of you could make a fortune if you follow how certain you are...

WRONG MARKETS TO BE LOOKING AT
regards
DR

 

[DTES]

financial markets
regards
DR

I haven't seen anything linking the Sterling's performance to a 60% figure. Genuine question - where have you seen this, can you link to it?

 

[DTES]

WRONG MARKETS TO BE LOOKING AT
regards
DR

If they're wrong, they're worth looking at for other reasons. 2/1 on a 60% likelihood? Worth filling your boots...

 

[Driver8]

financial markets
regards
DR

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

If they're wrong, they're worth looking at for other reasons. 2/1 on a 60% likelihood? Worth filling your boots...

for sure
regards
DR

 

[crookie]

I'm guessing what PPF is inferring is that if there really was only a 33% chance of leaving the £ would not have dropped so substantially in the last few weeks. Definitely all to play for, for both sides. In my view the more establishment bodies like the IMF get involved, more likely the vote will be out. People are mightily sick of bankers big business and their organisations. Who knows maybe people will feel like giving an almighty kick up the arse to the Establishment. My brother is going to do this

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[DTES]

for sure
regards
DR

I replied twice so maybe you missed the other one - where is this connection from the financial markets to this 60% you quote? Can you give us a link?

 

[Buzzer]

My gut feel is that the Remain camp will win something like 54:46 but all depends on the turnout. If it's a low turnout then that will certainly favour Brexit.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

DONT BE LAZY HAVE A LOOK AROUND POUND/ EURO EXCHANGE RATE PAGES
regards
DR

 

[DTES]

DONT BE LAZY HAVE A LOOK AROUND POUND/ EURO EXCHANGE RATE PAGES
regards
DR

What?

I can see the exchange rates - I don't see how you get from them to a 60% chance of leaving the EU.

Is that your own calculation - if so show your workings? If not show your link?

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

What?

I can see the exchange rates - I don't see how you get from them to a 60% chance of leaving the EU.

Is that your own calculation - if so show your workings? If not show your link?

YOU'RE NOT LOOKING HARD ENOUGH........... you sound worried
regards
DR

 

[DTES]

YOU'RE NOT LOOKING HARD ENOUGH........... you sound worried
regards
DR

I sound like I don't believe you. Which is exactly right.

I can link to some markets that price it at almost precisely a 2/3 chance of Remain: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

If that were wildly wrong then those with the money to gamble on the referundum would be all over it....... which would bring it in line.

You're a pretty good fisherman though - you had me believing you were serious for a while