[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

Eric the meek said:

It would appear to directly contradict a report I saw, in which Zelensky reported an 'excellent' phone call with Trump.

Either one or both reports is/are false, or Trump is shaping the deal.

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US Seagull said:

What would you expect Zelensky to say? He's not a dummy. He and absolutely everybody else in the world knows exactly how you do diplomacy with Trump. You tell him his the "best" and "greatest" world leader ever and he'll roll over and let you pet his belly.

Of course he's going to say it was "excellent".

If Zelensky really wanted to get his way, he'd divert some money to buy a massive number of DJT stock. It both, indirectly, makes Trump richer (he'll love that) while at the same time giving you leverage to hurt him by threatening to sell it all off and tank the stock.

If I happened to be in charge of the sovereign wealth fund of a rich petro-state, that would 100% be what I'd be doing...

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Eric the meek said:

Perhaps my post was a little naive, but note that the discussion has moved on since I posted that yesterday morning.

I would have thought that Zelensky will be focused on funding the war effort as best he possibly can, rather than risking scarce public funds on a risk-all punt on DJT stock?

To risk his defence budget on the off-chance that he might use it in the future to blackmail Trump, with the associated risk of alienating him and risking him pulling the plug on the flow of US weapons, is 100% what you should not do in Zelensky's position. What rich petro-states do is up to them.

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Eric the meek said:

you might conclude that the chance of a deal being done in Trump's 24 hours, is approximately zero.

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raymondo said:

Yes, the time gap is critical. If Ukraine can hold in there than anything is possible to collapse in Russia. But do western leaders actually want that

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raymondo said:

Putin will keep bluffing that Russia's economy is fine, it's what he does - are western leaders really smart enough to know the true picture, and what do they think about it?

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Deportivo Seagull said:

Russia couldn’t take Ukraine, so how the flying f*** would they be able to take the rest of Europe. The Czechs and Slovaks hate the Russians, add in the Polish and Baltic states then Russia would be toast.

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raymondo said:

Yes, if the gloves were off, Russia wouldn't last long against Europe. (Lots of Slovaks hate Russians ...but they elected a leader who seems to like Putin,).

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Eric the meek said:

Jake Broe's update on the Trump election win for Ukraine:

There's a lot of meat in this, but the detrimental effect of increased US and OPEC oil production is from 24:15 to 29:00.
The Trump presidency could inadvertently accelerate the Russian collapse...

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Triggaaar said:

I'm shocked I tell you, shocked

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fly high said:

Reported Trump wants price of oil to drop to $40 a barrel, would totally screw Putin & the bonus of screwing Iran as well.

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raymondo said:

Hooray

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Eric the meek said:

I understand. There's no need to apologise. We are all different, and you are closer to the effects of the war than many on here.

Of particular interest to me is the gradual economic collapse of Russia, which I believe if left alone, will happen. The only question is when. Nobody is going to help Russia the way the west has helped Ukraine. Not Iran. Not North Korea. China is hovering and has already taken two bites out of Siberia.

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raymondo said:

I would LOVE the economic collapse of Russia - it's just that I'm coming to feel the 'west' don't necessarily want it, because they fear the possible chaos that follows.

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Eric the meek said:

Jake Broe's update on the Trump election win for Ukraine:

There's a lot of meat in this, but the detrimental effect of increased US and OPEC oil production is from 24:15 to 29:00.
The Trump presidency could inadvertently accelerate the Russian collapse...

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Triggaaar said:

My condolences to his family

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Triggaaar said:

I can't see that. Was there terrible chaos for us after the collapse of the USSR?

Surely it would just be the end of Putin, and if his successor wanted, er, success, then they'd need to re-engage with the world to get sanctions removed etc.

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raymondo said:

Well yes, that would be nice.

Sorry , qI wasn't clear enough, I didn't mean economic chaos for the 'west'... I meant fear of what would happen politically in Russia. There must be a lot of division. What are the chances of various factions fighting for power, what happens to nuclear weapons etc.
Maybe I've read too much alarmist clap trap this past year...but why did Jake effing Sullivan have Biden's ear so much on 'escalation management '... what did/do the US really fear, and do they still?

I dunno! but some of the action/inaction/delays by the 'west' in past two years has left me very confused and suspicious.
What do you think, @Triggaaar

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Triggaaar said:

I do




You don't determine whether an economy is fine based on the words of the dictator. Of course the West know the true picture. You simply look at the undermining fundamentals (plenty of videos on the topic).

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