[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[A1X]

Hooray

Major General is only one rank below the most senior British casualty of the entire Second World War. Just for some historic context.

 

[Eric the meek]

I am MOST interested in your last sentence about China and Siberia !!

It's from Paul Warburg again.

Here's the video:



Note that this video is from 4 months ago.

Oh, and be sure to watch to the end.

 

[Triggaaar]

So, would the west like to continue sanctions and continue helping Ukraine hold the current position militarily, plus or minus, for the next two years (IMF estimate IIRC), until Russia implodes?
If not, why not?

I guess the West isn't one person or one opinion.

I would hope that the overriding decision makers are, while tempered by not escalating the conflict, intending to support Ukraine for as long as necessary (to safeguard Ukraine) and to show Russia that it can never win.

But obviously I have no idea, it's just hope.

 

[Eric the meek]

It may be useful to read beyond the headlines. What can we conclude? What are the implications?

For instance, if Trump is considering a European peacekeeping force to man an 800 mile long border, it might mean he doesn't trust Putin not to attack again, even if he has signed a peace agreement...

Another example is the implications of Zelensky's answers to the questions in the tweet below:

1. He's got money to last Ukraine for longer than Russia is predicted to last.
2. He wants long range missiles = he is planning to continue to fight on.

 

[raymondo]

It may be useful to read beyond the headlines. What can we conclude? What are the implications?

For instance, if Trump is considering a European peacekeeping force to man an 800 mile long border, it might mean he doesn't trust Putin not to attack again, even if he has signed a peace agreement...

Another example is the implications of Zelensky's answers to the questions in the tweet below:

1. He's got money to last Ukraine for longer than Russia is predicted to last.
2. He wants long range missiles = he is planning to continue to fight on.

It's very interesting that they had a call, and also that Merz asked that question!
I read or heard somewhere (just this morning...now don't go asking me questions like "where?" ,) that many/ all of longer range missiles that Ukraine has (does this include Storm Shadow?? no idea) contain critical US components in their nav systems, and this is why/ how the US reserves the right to put rules on their usage (eg no deep strikes into Russia).
Does Taurus contain any US components? I have no idea.

Jake Broe (was it him ) said in his latest video, that future US missile and other weapon sales will go down the pan if US persists with such restrictions; and Trump probably wouldn't be happy about that...

 

[raymondo]

It would screw the US oil producers as well. The US are already producing more oil than they have ever done. More under Biden than under Trump! How is he going to halve prices by producing more? The only other way would be to force them to charge less - which would then mean their profits would plummet.

Yes, I'd read that the US is pumping more than ever .

 

[raymondo]

It may be useful to read beyond the headlines. What can we conclude? What are the implications?

For instance, if Trump is considering a European peacekeeping force to man an 800 mile long border, it might mean he doesn't trust Putin not to attack again, even if he has signed a peace agreement...

Another example is the implications of Zelensky's answers to the questions in the tweet below:

1. He's got money to last Ukraine for longer than Russia is predicted to last.
2. He wants long range missiles = he is planning to continue to fight on.

800 miles seems a long border for a peace keeping force, doesn't it. Even longer if it winds through Kursk ,!
I just checked: US - Mexico border is 2000 miles.
No problem then.

 

[Eric the meek]

It's very interesting that they had a call, and also that Merz asked that question!
I read or heard somewhere (just this morning...now don't go asking me questions like "where?" ,) that many/ all of longer range missiles that Ukraine has (does this include Storm Shadow?? no idea) contain critical US components in their nav systems, and this is why/ how the US reserves the right to put rules on their usage (eg no deep strikes into Russia).
Does Taurus contain any US components? I have no idea.

Jake Broe (was it him ) said in his latest video, that future US missile and other weapon sales will go down the pan if US persists with such restrictions; and Trump probably wouldn't be happy about that...

Where? C'mon, c'mon, it was only this morning. You can do this Ray

P.S. Yes, it was Jake Broe. Lucky that one of us has got a bit of memory left, eh?

 

[Eric the meek]

Things seem to be moving, but Musk?

In on the phone call with Zelensky?

 

[raymondo]

It's from Paul Warburg again.

Here's the video:



Note that this video is from 4 months ago.

Oh, and be sure to watch to the end.

Fascinating video, thanks

 

[raymondo]

Where? C'mon, c'mon, it was only this morning. You can do this Ray

P.S. Yes, it was Jake Broe. Lucky that one of us has got a bit of memory left, eh?

Aha... good old Jake . I did watch a LOT of videos this morning, in my defence!

 

[peterward]

As I understand it, this is just one of several possible peace plans being looked at by Trump's team.

In it, I saw this glimmer of hope for Ukraine:

'Mike Pompeo, who served as Mr Trump’s secretary of state during his first term and is now tipped to head the Pentagon, has criticised the Biden administration for providing too little help too slowly and is likely to resist a deal that could be interpreted as a Russian victory.'

Trump mulls Ukraine peace plan: British troops patrolling an 800-mile buffer zone

First suggestions by president-elect to freeze war with Russia, as Putin says he is ready to talk with ‘courageous’ leader

www.telegraph.co.uk

Edit: if you read the section 'Russia expects ‘new territorial realities’, you might conclude that the chance of a deal being done in Trump's 24 hours, is approximately zero.

This is the official one, allegedly thay has been floated. But its author isn't Trump, so it means little unless he says so.

If doesn't really say what territory is handed over, I believed its Russia keeping 20% of what they've taken? And rest becomes demilitarised zone?

Not sure tbh, and any freeze where Putin keeps more than he started with is a bad deal..... he will rearm, wait and go again, his maximalist plans won't change.

Zelensky cannot sell anything where Ukraine hands over territory to Russia after his peoples fight and the many deaths against the genocidal aggressor.

 

[Eric the meek]

This is the official one, allegedly thay has been floated. But its author isn't Trump, so it means little unless he says so.

If doesn't really say what territory is handed over, I believed its Russia keeping 20% of what they've taken? And rest becomes demilitarised zone?

Not sure tbh, and any freeze where Putin keeps more than he started with is a bad deal..... he will rearm, wait and go again, his maximalist plans won't change.

Zelensky cannot sell anything where Ukraine hands over territory to Russia after his peoples fight and the many deaths against the genocidal aggressor.

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View attachment 192113

I'm a bit confused.
Is that the most recent version? The date is July 25? I quite like the content though. But not the ambiguity/vagueness.

I completely agree on Putin. He won't change and he won't stop.

 

[peterward]

I'm a bit confused.
Is that the most recent version? The date is July 25? I quite like the content though. But not the ambiguity/vagueness.

I completely agree on Putin. He won't change and he won't stop.

It was published on WSJ 2 days ago, saying it was US proposal.

Yes looks like it was drafted in July.

Agree on ambiguity, it's vague..... all sizzle and no sausage.

 

[Triggaaar]

This is the official one, allegedly thay has been floated. But its author isn't Trump, so it means little unless he says so.

If doesn't really say what territory is handed over, I believed its Russia keeping 20% of what they've taken? And rest becomes demilitarised zone?

Not sure tbh, and any freeze where Putin keeps more than he started with is a bad deal..... he will rearm, wait and go again, his maximalist plans won't change.

Zelensky cannot sell anything where Ukraine hands over territory to Russia after his peoples fight and the many deaths against the genocidal aggressor.

View attachment 192112


View attachment 192113

Those example terms mean giving Russia the territory they occupy.

While they claim that the occupied territories would not be recognised (citing the Soviet incorporation of the Balitic states), the reality is that anyone living in those territories would have to become Russian, leave, or die, and there would be no hope of them ever returning to Ukraine.

It's a no from me.

 

[chickens]

It's very interesting that they had a call, and also that Merz asked that question!
I read or heard somewhere (just this morning...now don't go asking me questions like "where?" ,) that many/ all of longer range missiles that Ukraine has (does this include Storm Shadow?? no idea) contain critical US components in their nav systems, and this is why/ how the US reserves the right to put rules on their usage (eg no deep strikes into Russia).
Does Taurus contain any US components? I have no idea.

Jake Broe (was it him ) said in his latest video, that future US missile and other weapon sales will go down the pan if US persists with such restrictions; and Trump probably wouldn't be happy about that...

I was wondering about this. Why would I pay anything for US weapons, if I had to have their written permission before I could actually use them?

In the event that I needed to defend myself, I wouldn’t necessarily have time to wait around for a permission slip. I would simply swerve US manufacturers/suppliers and buy elsewhere.

 

[raymondo]

I was wondering about this. Why would I pay anything for US weapons, if I had to have their written permission before I could actually use them?

In the event that I needed to defend myself, I wouldn’t necessarily have time to wait around for a permission slip. I would simply swerve US manufacturers/suppliers and buy elsewhere.

Exactly, and of course the US could revise their set of 'rules' at any time, at a moment's notice. Ridiculous situation. I guess it's only being 'obeyed' by Ukraine because of the overall support from the US and others that Ukraine can't risk losing.
Looking forward to Ukraine's homegrown long range missiles (without any pre-announcements please)...although it wouldn't surprise me if the US tries to influence that too.

 

[Swegulls]

Things seem to be moving, but Musk?

In on the phone call with Zelensky?

Hmm, I wonder what this is all about? Is it just some demonstration of power (or how you say it), "You need me, you need Musk and Starlink, you need us. We have the upper hand here". Just speculations from my side, but it's kind of strange. I really hope the US will continue to support Ukraine next year, it will be decisive in 2025.

 

[Triggaaar]

I was wondering about this. Why would I pay anything for US weapons, if I had to have their written permission before I could actually use them?

In the event that I needed to defend myself, I wouldn’t necessarily have time to wait around for a permission slip. I would simply swerve US manufacturers/suppliers and buy elsewhere.

Have the weapons been sold to Ukraine, or donated?
Even if they are sold, it's ok to agree to sell with restrictions, you don't have to buy them. If you then decide to ignore the restrictions, that's fine, but don't necessarily expect them to sell you more.

 

[Eric the meek]

Hmm, I wonder what this is all about? Is it just some demonstration of power (or how you say it), "You need me, you need Musk and Starlink, you need us. We have the upper hand here". Just speculations from my side, but it's kind of strange. I really hope the US will continue to support Ukraine next year, it will be decisive in 2025.

That sounds very plausible. Very Trump. A powerplay. The implication of course being that Starlink access can be withdrawn at any time.