[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[US Seagull]

It would appear to directly contradict a report I saw, in which Zelensky reported an 'excellent' phone call with Trump.

Either one or both reports is/are false, or Trump is shaping the deal.

What would you expect Zelensky to say? He's not a dummy. He and absolutely everybody else in the world knows exactly how you do diplomacy with Trump. You tell him his the "best" and "greatest" world leader ever and he'll roll over and let you pet his belly.

Of course he's going to say it was "excellent".

If Zelensky really wanted to get his way, he'd divert some money to buy a massive number of DJT stock. It both, indirectly, makes Trump richer (he'll love that) while at the same time giving you leverage to hurt him by threatening to sell it all off and tank the stock.

If I happened to be in charge of the sovereign wealth fund of a rich petro-state, that would 100% be what I'd be doing...

 

[Eric the meek]

What would you expect Zelensky to say? He's not a dummy. He and absolutely everybody else in the world knows exactly how you do diplomacy with Trump. You tell him his the "best" and "greatest" world leader ever and he'll roll over and let you pet his belly.

Of course he's going to say it was "excellent".

If Zelensky really wanted to get his way, he'd divert some money to buy a massive number of DJT stock. It both, indirectly, makes Trump richer (he'll love that) while at the same time giving you leverage to hurt him by threatening to sell it all off and tank the stock.

If I happened to be in charge of the sovereign wealth fund of a rich petro-state, that would 100% be what I'd be doing...

Perhaps my post was a little naive, but note that the discussion has moved on since I posted that yesterday morning.

I would have thought that Zelensky will be focused on funding the war effort as best he possibly can, rather than risking scarce public funds on a risk-all punt on DJT stock?

To risk his defence budget on the off-chance that he might use it in the future to blackmail Trump, with the associated risk of alienating him and risking him pulling the plug on the flow of US weapons, is 100% what you should not do in Zelensky's position. What rich petro-states do is up to them.

 

[Eric the meek]

Jake Broe's update on the Trump election win for Ukraine:

There's a lot of meat in this, but the detrimental effect of increased US and OPEC oil production is from 24:15 to 29:00.
The Trump presidency could inadvertently accelerate the Russian collapse...

 

[US Seagull]

Perhaps my post was a little naive, but note that the discussion has moved on since I posted that yesterday morning.

I would have thought that Zelensky will be focused on funding the war effort as best he possibly can, rather than risking scarce public funds on a risk-all punt on DJT stock?

To risk his defence budget on the off-chance that he might use it in the future to blackmail Trump, with the associated risk of alienating him and risking him pulling the plug on the flow of US weapons, is 100% what you should not do in Zelensky's position. What rich petro-states do is up to them.

It was somewhat tongue-in-cheek. I know Zelensky doesn't have the money to seriously buy up DJT stock.

 

[Triggaaar]

you might conclude that the chance of a deal being done in Trump's 24 hours, is approximately zero.

I'm shocked I tell you, shocked

 

[Triggaaar]

Yes, the time gap is critical. If Ukraine can hold in there than anything is possible to collapse in Russia. But do western leaders actually want that

I do

Putin will keep bluffing that Russia's economy is fine, it's what he does - are western leaders really smart enough to know the true picture, and what do they think about it?

You don't determine whether an economy is fine based on the words of the dictator. Of course the West know the true picture. You simply look at the undermining fundamentals (plenty of videos on the topic).

 

[raymondo]

Russia couldn’t take Ukraine, so how the flying f*** would they be able to take the rest of Europe. The Czechs and Slovaks hate the Russians, add in the Polish and Baltic states then Russia would be toast.

Yes, if the gloves were off, Russia wouldn't last long against Europe. (Lots of Slovaks hate Russians ...but they elected a leader who seems to like Putin,).

 

[raymondo]

Hooray

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Yes, if the gloves were off, Russia wouldn't last long against Europe. (Lots of Slovaks hate Russians ...but they elected a leader who seems to like Putin,).

Until he wants to invade ….

 

[fly high]

Jake Broe's update on the Trump election win for Ukraine:

There's a lot of meat in this, but the detrimental effect of increased US and OPEC oil production is from 24:15 to 29:00.
The Trump presidency could inadvertently accelerate the Russian collapse...

Reported Trump wants price of oil to drop to $40 a barrel, would totally screw Putin & the bonus of screwing Iran as well.

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm shocked I tell you, shocked

You can always rely on me to state the obvious. Not much else, mind.

 

[Bodian]

Reported Trump wants price of oil to drop to $40 a barrel, would totally screw Putin & the bonus of screwing Iran as well.

It would screw the US oil producers as well. The US are already producing more oil than they have ever done. More under Biden than under Trump! How is he going to halve prices by producing more? The only other way would be to force them to charge less - which would then mean their profits would plummet.

 

[Triggaaar]

Hooray

My condolences to his family

 

[raymondo]

I understand. There's no need to apologise. We are all different, and you are closer to the effects of the war than many on here.

Of particular interest to me is the gradual economic collapse of Russia, which I believe if left alone, will happen. The only question is when. Nobody is going to help Russia the way the west has helped Ukraine. Not Iran. Not North Korea. China is hovering and has already taken two bites out of Siberia.

I may be closer to the effects of the war, but I'm not necessarily closer to the analysis and pulse of what is/ might happen . All possibilities (from anyone) are very welcome IMO .
I would LOVE the economic collapse of Russia - it's just that I'm coming to feel the 'west' don't necessarily want it, because they fear the possible chaos that follows.
What could actually be worse than Putin's genocide and daily war crimes is hard for me to imagine though .
But...it really wouldn't surprise me totally if the US, Germany, some others prefer Russia to stay intact, headed by Putin, if temporarily damaged militarily and economically. Then they can continue their jolly game of cat and mouse.

States such as the Baltics, Finland, Poland however, would probably prefer Russia smashed out of the park.
That's how I feel today anyhow, but I reserve the right to change what I feel and say at any moment (seems to be the way of the world).
I am MOST interested in your last sentence about China and Siberia !!

 

[Triggaaar]

I would LOVE the economic collapse of Russia - it's just that I'm coming to feel the 'west' don't necessarily want it, because they fear the possible chaos that follows.

I can't see that. Was there terrible chaos for us after the collapse of the USSR?

Surely it would just be the end of Putin, and if his successor wanted, er, success, then they'd need to re-engage with the world to get sanctions removed etc.

 

[raymondo]

Jake Broe's update on the Trump election win for Ukraine:

There's a lot of meat in this, but the detrimental effect of increased US and OPEC oil production is from 24:15 to 29:00.
The Trump presidency could inadvertently accelerate the Russian collapse...

Yes, it was a good watch. It's a reminder that, although Trump seems a touch too pally with Putin, and Poots will flatter Trump's ego, Trump is mainly about (himself first, and then) putting the US first, so it shouldn't bother him if pumping more US oil damages Russia...could be a silver lining (sorry, planet).

 

[raymondo]

My condolences to his family

Yeah, decent party there .
I hope his wife enjoys the box of chocolates deceased payment.

 

[raymondo]

I can't see that. Was there terrible chaos for us after the collapse of the USSR?

Surely it would just be the end of Putin, and if his successor wanted, er, success, then they'd need to re-engage with the world to get sanctions removed etc.

Well yes, that would be nice.

Sorry , qI wasn't clear enough, I didn't mean economic chaos for the 'west'... I meant fear of what would happen politically in Russia. There must be a lot of division. What are the chances of various factions fighting for power, what happens to nuclear weapons etc.
Maybe I've read too much alarmist clap trap this past year...but why did Jake effing Sullivan have Biden's ear so much on 'escalation management '... what did/do the US really fear, and do they still?

I dunno! but some of the action/inaction/delays by the 'west' in past two years has left me very confused and suspicious.
What do you think, @Triggaaar

 

[Triggaaar]

Well yes, that would be nice.

Sorry , qI wasn't clear enough, I didn't mean economic chaos for the 'west'... I meant fear of what would happen politically in Russia. There must be a lot of division. What are the chances of various factions fighting for power, what happens to nuclear weapons etc.
Maybe I've read too much alarmist clap trap this past year...but why did Jake effing Sullivan have Biden's ear so much on 'escalation management '... what did/do the US really fear, and do they still?

I dunno! but some of the action/inaction/delays by the 'west' in past two years has left me very confused and suspicious.
What do you think, @Triggaaar

Well obviously I don't know, but if Putin was out then a few people will fight for power, but I can't imagine any of them would want their world to end. Who wants to take over the worlds largest country and then immediately die?

 

[raymondo]

I do




You don't determine whether an economy is fine based on the words of the dictator. Of course the West know the true picture. You simply look at the undermining fundamentals (plenty of videos on the topic).

Exactly, I knew the answer to my question.
So, would the west like to continue sanctions and continue helping Ukraine hold the current position militarily, plus or minus, for the next two years (IMF estimate IIRC), until Russia implodes?
If not, why not?