[Politics] Tory voters- where do you go from here?

Professor Plum said:

The election of the new leader looks to me like the start of that string of leaders they had post-Major -- William Hague, IDS, Michael Howerd. None of them seemed PM material, Then Cameron came along and their fortunes improved. The current candidates have that same not-PM-types feel about them. If so, it's good news for Labour, in spite of their current travails.

The biggest current challenge for the Tories is what to do about Reform. Incidentally, this is also a challenge for Labour. Remember in 2015, UKIP had a major impact across many Labour constituencies, especially in the north. Reform is similar to UKIP in their disruptiveness. But in the short term at least, the Tories are more susceptible as we saw in this year's election. How they deal with that, who knows? I can't see an amalgamation and I can't see any electoral deal as happened in 2019.

It's possible I suppose that Reform will get even more powerful and become the default party of the right. In other words, this may actually be the beginning of the end of the Tories. I hope this doesn't happen, but if the Tories remain unpopular and if Labour continue their mis-steps, I guess that leaves a channel down the middle for the emergence of not just Reform but also the LibDems.

Politics is fascinating. If we have this discussion in 12 months time (as we surely will) I suspect the landscape will have changed again. "Events. dear boy, events" makes any prediction almost impossible.

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Professor Plum said:

The election of the new leader looks to me like the start of that string of leaders they had post-Major -- William Hague, IDS, Michael Howerd. None of them seemed PM material, Then Cameron came along and their fortunes improved. The current candidates have that same not-PM-types feel about them. If so, it's good news for Labour, in spite of their current travails.

The biggest current challenge for the Tories is what to do about Reform. Incidentally, this is also a challenge for Labour. Remember in 2015, UKIP had a major impact across many Labour constituencies, especially in the north. Reform is similar to UKIP in their disruptiveness. But in the short term at least, the Tories are more susceptible as we saw in this year's election. How they deal with that, who knows? I can't see an amalgamation and I can't see any electoral deal as happened in 2019.

It's possible I suppose that Reform will get even more powerful and become the default party of the right. In other words, this may actually be the beginning of the end of the Tories. I hope this doesn't happen, but if the Tories remain unpopular and if Labour continue their mis-steps, I guess that leaves a channel down the middle for the emergence of not just Reform but also the LibDems.

Politics is fascinating. If we have this discussion in 12 months time (as we surely will) I suspect the landscape will have changed again. "Events. dear boy, events" makes any prediction almost impossible.

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Machiavelli said:

FWIW, the Tories probably ought to focus more on the Lib Dems and potentially Labour, more than Reform. I don't see Reform replacing the Tories on the right. Reform are hated by a considerable section of the population who'd never vote for them whereas although the Tories are at a particularly low point currently (potentially exacerbated by this news), this will pass.

The way I'll put what you're grappling with is that essentially there's a schism in the right which has been absent for centuries but has been creeping up in the last decade or two. This had happened to the left much earlier and much more deeply. The result is that you have increasingly bizarre election results, because the electoral system is designed to have two strong parties nominally at least of the left and right. UK politics has moved on from that. Beyond more radical shifts (which I'm not adverse to, but I suspect you and the majority will be), the only solution to this is PR which will return election results far more representative of the views of the public. We have a pluralist politics, but a two-party electoral system.

On this, the 2024 GE had the second lowest turnout for centuries at under 60%. Labour ended up with two-thirds of the seats off the back of one-third of those that turned out to vote (which is 20% of the electorate and the electorate itself is far short of the adult population via exclusions). This explains the shallow support for Labour and difficulties of governing. They might be able to mask this throughout this parliament due to their parliamentary predominance, but there's only a large minority that actually supports them and much of this is very shallow support.

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Guinness Boy said:

The change in voting patterns compared to location and demographic always fascinates me.

When I was growing up the South and South East were solidly Tory and no red could get anywhere near it. But anything northern and working class was solidly Labour.

Now Labour have to be worried about those same seats being taken by Reform, whereas the Tories are under pressure all over the south from Remain voting Labour and Lib Dems.

Meanwhile, the Scots who never used to vote Tory will neither vote Tory, nor Reform, despite some similar demographics in some towns to the north of England.

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Machiavelli said:

FWIW, the Tories probably ought to focus more on the Lib Dems and potentially Labour, more than Reform. I don't see Reform replacing the Tories on the right. Reform are hated by a considerable section of the population who'd never vote for them whereas although the Tories are at a particularly low point currently (potentially exacerbated by this news), this will pass.

The way I'll put what you're grappling with is that essentially there's a schism in the right which has been absent for centuries but has been creeping up in the last decade or two. This had happened to the left much earlier and much more deeply. The result is that you have increasingly bizarre election results, because the electoral system is designed to have two strong parties nominally at least of the left and right. UK politics has moved on from that. Beyond more radical shifts (which I'm not adverse to, but I suspect you and the majority will be), the only solution to this is PR which will return election results far more representative of the views of the public. We have a pluralist politics, but a two-party electoral system.

On this, the 2024 GE had the second lowest turnout for centuries at under 60%. Labour ended up with two-thirds of the seats off the back of one-third of those that turned out to vote (which is 20% of the electorate and the electorate itself is far short of the adult population via exclusions). This explains the shallow support for Labour and difficulties of governing. They might be able to mask this throughout this parliament due to their parliamentary predominance, but there's only a large minority that actually supports them and much of this is very shallow support.

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Harry Wilson's tackle said:

In terms of % of those eligible to vote, maybe. But women didn't get the vote till 1918, and only women over the age of 30, with additional property caveats.

Turnout of those eligible was flat till 2001, when the labout and tory candidates were both very poor (and the fringe parties were dull). And life was pretty decent for most.

After that turnout has risen steadily, dipping again only recently, with Johnson supreme, and in the last GE where we had execrable Tories, a very dull labour leader, and a national acceptance that we have left the EU and will have to lump it, with very little hope on offer (once you take 'we will sink the boats' out of the dismal equation.

UK politics isn't broken. It has simply failed to keep up with the modern world. It will catch up eventually.

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Professor Plum said:

Wow indeed. I didn't see that coming. Yesterday the talk was all about Cleverly being the darling of the MPs. Clearly not the case.

So Badenoch and Jenrick will be put to party members to vote on. Not being a Tory member or knowing any (that I'm aware of), I have no inkling how this will go but I've seen articles in the Telegraph claiming that Badenoch is popular among the rank and file.

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Professor Plum said:

I'm a massive advocate of some form of PR. FPTP is a terrible betrayal of democratic values, as seen in this year's general election.

If 20% of the population are revolutionary communists and 20% are fascists, then I think we should have the same proportion of MPs representing those 40%. I don't share the politics of either of these groups but if you believe in representative democracy, as I do, you sometimes have to bite your lip and accept that not everyone agrees with you.

The reason I think Reform are the Tories' biggest threat is that they occupy overlapping ground, as we saw in the 2024 election. If Reform didn't exist, Labout would still have won due to the massive abstentions of traditional Tories but they;d have had far more seats. There were loads of constituencies where Reform and the Tory votes together were greater than the victor's total.

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lawros left foot said:

What a choice.

A homophobic bigot or a corrupt chancer.

‘‘Twas ever thus” in the modern day Tory Party.

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stewart12 said:

Looks like they're going with the "lunge to the right" option then

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stewart12 said:

Looks like they're going with the "lunge to the right" option then

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kevo said:

The Conservative Party as we know it now officially dead. With either two of the crazies left becoming the official leader of the opposition, a merger with Reform is surely on the cards. Farage is a step closer to being PM in five years' time - although surely the 'moderate' Tories will need to find a new home?

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jcdenton08 said:

Where have the good Tories gone?

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schmunk said:

It's got to be a tap-in for Bobby J, surely?

The Tory faithful LOVE BadEnoch's fascist tendencies, but she is perhaps just a tad too, ahem..., exotic for the shires...

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Leekbrookgull said:

Vote Sir Keir Starmer, a man you Can Trust.

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