[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Blue Valkyrie]

Finally, and far too late, there may be a chance to Get Rid.

Tory MPs must be bombarded with letters expressing disgust in Johnson if they get a chance to vote.

 

[WATFORD zero]

At the time the vote is taken, it'll be all about Boris. They won't think about who's replacing him until afterwards. The question will be: does anyone with credibility step forward *not*, or are those credible leaders going to wait it out and let a Boris stooge take the reins and suffer the after effects of Boris' mismanagement. That will all depend on whether or not those credible leaders think there's enough time left before the next GE to rescue the situation. If they think the next GE is more than likely already lost, they'll wait. If they're confident it can still be won, they'll go for it now.

That may all depend on which way they think the Starmer / Rayner situation will go. Let's assume for a moment that Starmer and Rayner get cleared (they already were once, so it's reasonable). IMO they'll be looking at Starmer as being someone they can beat. I've said it before: Starmer would be a far better PM than he is an opposition leader. While the Tory polling with Boris as leader is pointing to them losing their majority and Labour being better placed to form a government if a GE was held today, it's not so bad as to be irretrievable given 18 months to sort the mess out.

They'll still keep their heads down until after they've seen how any vote against Boris goes.

The thing that I think is totally irretrievable is the economic crisis. Absolutely everything he has done in the last 2 and a half years has increased the Cost of living and Inflation from a relatively stable base and put the economy into Recession (tbc), and that's not going to be possible to turn around in 18 months. I think it's pretty obvious that all these problems are now heading in the wrong direction and just starting to accelerate after 2 and a half years of complete incompetence.

By the time of the GE it will be far worse and that will be what the election will be about. Good luck to anyone trying to turn that particular tanker round

 

[Machiavelli]

Well, its taken 6 months but it feels like we could be nearing the end game. Watching Newsnight earlier, the narrative definitely seems to have shifted in the last 24 hours from "can Johnson survive?" to "how soon will he be gone?"

Your sense of timing is in sync with mine. I think the announcement of the 54 will now come within a week. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The thing that I think is totally irretrievable is the economic crisis. Absolutely everything he has done in the last 2 and a half years has increased the Cost of living and Inflation from a relatively stable base and put the economy into Recession (tbc), and that it's not going to be possible to turn that around in 18 months. I think it's pretty obvious that all these problems are now heading in the wrong direction and just starting to accelerate after 2 and a half years of complete incompetence.

By the time of the GE it will be far worse and that will be what the election will be about. Good luck to anyone trying to turn that particular tanker round

The magic silver bullet is joining EFTA and the EEA.

Whether 2 years is enough for the complete economic turn around is debatable but it would give the economy a massive shot in the arm.

 

[Machiavelli]

The interesting question for me is this: what happens if Johnson is replaced but the new leader finds that the opinion polls are even worse for him or her?

This is not implausible. There are many people who say that they only voted Tory because BJ was the leader and if they pick someone from the cabinet (which they almost certainly will) then the Tories will be stuck with someone responsible for the mess we're in, someone who's stood by Johnson and his lies but without his voter appeal. And if they choose a remainer like Truss or Javid, we'll probably get Farage making a new push for the Reform Party, taking away more votes.

How would the Tories react with a leader polling mid-twenties, having changed leader once already? It will be a tough one for them

The 2019 vote for Boris was a pro-Brexit and anti-Corbyn coalition. Neither of those will feature in the 2023/24 electorate's mind. There is also the issue of the 'identity crisis' that the Tory Party are currently undergoing.
In terms of polling, it's stark that even at Johnson's most difficult moments (which seems to have stretched beyond a moment), the party has consistently polled over 30%. The Conservative Party continues to have a loyal following, and that coalition brought Johnson a 80 seat majority. The bookies still have them as favourites for the next election.

 

[Braggfan]

who else would want the job...?? political at its worst , he will get the vote of confidence as no one else will take the job.

There's plenty of horrible toads and snakes that will slither out of the tory cesspit if they think they'll get a chance to be PM. Gove and Williamson will already be prepping their leadership bids.

 

[Gwylan]

The 2019 vote for Boris was a pro-Brexit and anti-Corbyn coalition. Neither of those will feature in the 2023/24 electorate's mind.

If you think Brexit doesn't feature in voters' minds you can't be following social media very closely. Every single thread about Johnson and his position will have a multitude of respondents chirping in with "Remoaner", "Remainer plot", "Your beloved EU" or similar. It's still a massive factor in some people's minds

 

[nicko31]

The thing that I think is totally irretrievable is the economic crisis. Absolutely everything he has done in the last 2 and a half years has increased the Cost of living and Inflation from a relatively stable base and put the economy into Recession (tbc), and that's not going to be possible to turn around in 18 months. I think it's pretty obvious that all these problems are now heading in the wrong direction and just starting to accelerate after 2 and a half years of complete incompetence.

By the time of the GE it will be far worse and that will be what the election will be about. Good luck to anyone trying to turn that particular tanker round

British pound is taking on ‘emerging market’ characteristics, Bank of America says

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/31/ste...g-market-characteristics-bank-of-america.html

The world is waking up to the skip fire this corrupt cabal have helped create. We need to get some grown ups in to sort out the mess.

 

[WATFORD zero]

The magic silver bullet is joining EFTA and the EEA.

Whether 2 years is enough for the complete economic turn around is debatable but it would give the economy a massive shot in the arm.

Of course anyone with a smidgen of common sense knows that (and gets rid of the Northern Ireland Protocol issue and JRM's 'Act of self harm' Border controls), but there are too many that don't want to admit it still

And no. I don't think it will turn it round in 2 years, the damage has already been done.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

If you think Brexit doesn't feature in voters' minds you can't be following social media very closely. Every single thread about Johnson and his position will have a multitude of respondents chirping in with "Remoaner", "Remainer plot", "Your beloved EU" or similar. It's still a massive factor in some people's minds

Rejoining EFTA would be a solution because we have it on record that Vote Leave said 'No one is talking about leaving the Single Market' and Farage himself said we could be like Norway. Use their own words against them, and remind leavers that this is what was promised.

 

[nwgull]

If you think Brexit doesn't feature in voters' minds you can't be following social media very closely. Every single thread about Johnson and his position will have a multitude of respondents chirping in with "Remoaner", "Remainer plot", "Your beloved EU" or similar. It's still a massive factor in some people's minds

I was going to write the same. Rabid brexiteers aren't the brightest bunch and believe that Johnson has been prevented from fully implementing their unicorn version of Brexit by anti-democratic remainers and the evil EU. Brexit is all that matters to them, and Johnson will almost certainly fight the 2024 election on a delusionary get-Brexit-done manifesto.

 

[Audax]

The magic silver bullet is joining EFTA and the EEA.

Whether 2 years is enough for the complete economic turn around is debatable but it would give the economy a massive shot in the arm.

Yup. If the Tory's can stomach putting in a PM who wants to go to the EU and negotiate out of the current mess and into EFTA / EEA then the economic outlook improves. I also think from a voter perspective they'd be in with a shout of regaining some of the voters lost to the Lib Dems. The risk would be splitting the vote on the right through losing voters to Reform / whatever Farage does in response.

 

[Dorset Seagull]

I think a new leader may have a chance. Whatever they do will make them look good as they cant possibly make it worse than it already is. If they start to turn things around then it will create a more positive vibe which could see them in a strong position come election time. The only way is up, as they say

 

[A1X]

Rejoining EFTA would be a solution because we have it on record that Vote Leave said 'No one is talking about leaving the Single Market' and Farage himself said we could be like Norway. Use their own words against them, and remind leavers that this is what was promised.

Let's remind ourselves of the official Vote Leave leaflet which specifically stated this;

• There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and we will be part of it
• We don’t need to accept the control of the EU Court to trade with Europe

It's all here, Page 11 - http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.ne...inal/1463496002/Why_Vote_Leave.pdf?1463496002

 

[darkwolf666]

The interesting question for me is this: what happens if Johnson is replaced but the new leader finds that the opinion polls are even worse for him or her?

This is not implausible. There are many people who say that they only voted Tory because BJ was the leader and if they pick someone from the cabinet (which they almost certainly will) then the Tories will be stuck with someone responsible for the mess we're in, someone who's stood by Johnson and his lies but without his voter appeal. And if they choose a remainer like Truss or Javid, we'll probably get Farage making a new push for the Reform Party, taking away more votes.

How would the Tories react with a leader polling mid-twenties, having changed leader once already? It will be a tough one for them

I am quite confident (sadly) that if the Tories were to get rid of Boris Johnson now then the new leader, as long as they don't come from the current cabal, would get a substantial bounce in the polls - in a football parlance, new manager bounce.

Having said that, I am equally confident that even if Boris Johnson does have to go through a vote of no confidence, he will win, as there is no-one in the current cabinet that is going to challenge him and probably nobody with enough clout outside of the cabinet to do the deed.

 

[A1X]

If you think Brexit doesn't feature in voters' minds you can't be following social media very closely. Every single thread about Johnson and his position will have a multitude of respondents chirping in with "Remoaner", "Remainer plot", "Your beloved EU" or similar. It's still a massive factor in some people's minds

True, but how many of them are real people? Many of the same people on Twitter were adamant GB News would be great, yet it ended up with zero viewers. Almost like they were part of massive troll and bot farms rather than real people.

 

[Audax]

Will be interesting to see if any more prominent Tory's emerge with critical public statements against Boris today. The more names like Leadsom who break rank and make critical statements, the bolder the backbenchers are going to get and the more likely it is that a potential leadership candidate steps out of the shadows and makes a play to get that 54 threshold crossed (assuming it hasn't been already). Leadsom herself has tried previously - it's plausible her statement yesterday was a move made to assess potential support either on her own behalf, or on behalf of someone else she intends to support.

 

[clapham_gull]

The rules were different under Thatcher and changed by William Hague I think.

That was a direct leadership challenge. She won the first vote (against Hestletine) but didnt have enough to stop a second.

Famously resigned as her cabinet her she would lose the second, at which point other candidates could join the race. Cue John Major who supported Thatcher in the first.

Sent from my SM-A526B using Tapatalk

 

[Audax]

[...] as there is no-one in the current cabinet that is going to challenge him and probably nobody with enough clout outside of the cabinet to do the deed.

There is an absolute paucity of quality in the current cabinet. There are plenty of far more capable MPs outside the cabinet. Just because they've been keeping their heads down doesn't mean they aren't there.

 

[nicko31]

There is an absolute paucity of quality in the current cabinet. There are plenty of far more capable MPs outside the cabinet. Just because they've been keeping their heads down doesn't mean they aren't there.

All of the cabinet is infected now, we need a clean break. Get Jeremy Hunt in (I'll try to forget the junior doctors thing, but he is still a Tory), this we get some some credibility back with someone boring who just gets on with governing