[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Mellotron]

I’m not convinced by this talk of Russia doing badly.

Because that’s not how it’s looking on the ground, is it.

Russia are a well funded, well backed, military power with the capacity to overwhelm Ukraine. And inch by inch it’s doing so.

People need to manage expectations.

But an important point is that even if they WIN the war (which currently looks very unlikely in terms of actually taking all of Ukraine), they will still continue to be having a very bad time in very many ways.

It was a huge error (and mostly likely ultimately fatal IMO) from Putin plain and simple, and there is no way he comes out of this whole thing better than he started it.

 

[Eric the meek]

 

[Eric the meek]

 

[The Clamp]

Great but should have happened two years ago.

 

[fly high]

Great but should have happened two years ago.

One advantage of the delay is a higher profit on the holdings, they are not handing out the original capital held.

 

[raymondo]

I think it's remarkable that it's gone through

 

[Eric the meek]

I think it's remarkable that it's gone through

And EU accession talks to begin by end of June! The money to arrive in July.

During the Brexit saga, I said that Ursula von der Leyen was streets ahead of any British Brexit politician. She has outlasted all of them.

 

[peterward]

I think it's remarkable that it's gone through

Ukraines future is in the EU, but accession talks won't be able to start until the end of year imho.

Putins frog faced puppet Orban/Hungary is about to assume the rotating presidency for next 6 months, which is madness but reality.

You think the man whose party, Fidesz has the single biggest ad spend on Google in Europe of any entity, in which 50% is spent on soft pro Russian anti EU propaganda advertising is going to allow Ukraine accession talks?

 

[raymondo]

Ukraines future is in the EU, but accession talks won't be able to start until the end of year imho.

Putins frog faced puppet Orban/Hungary is about to assume the rotating presidency for next 6 months, which is madness but reality.

You think the man whose party, Fidesz has the single biggest ad spend on Google in Europe of any entity, in which 50% is spent on soft pro Russian anti EU propaganda advertising is going to allow Ukraine accession talks?

I didn't realise Orban was next in line for the presidency. That could be fairly disastrous short term.
Hopefully the protests against him in Hungary will remind him regularly.

 

[essbee1]

What a person Ursula von der Leyen is. No bullshit. Takes no bullshit. A "don't f*** with us" type of person
who we need more of.

 

[Eric the meek]

I think we've covered this before, but in case we haven't, here it is.

NATO is preparing substantial repeat investment in the Ukraine military project, I guess to counter the risk of the Trump effect.

 

[raymondo]

Nearly 20,000 Wagner mercenaries died taking Bakhmut, media investigation confirms

BBC Russia and Mediazona obtained documents shortly after the death of Wagner Group's founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, detailing the posthumous payments to relatives of those killed fighting in Ukraine between January 2022 and August 2023.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Eric the meek]

Nearly 20,000 Wagner mercenaries died taking Bakhmut, media investigation confirms

BBC Russia and Mediazona obtained documents shortly after the death of Wagner Group's founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, detailing the posthumous payments to relatives of those killed fighting in Ukraine between January 2022 and August 2023.

kyivindependent.com

Extraordinary numbers. 17,000 of those killed were former prisoners, pardoned by Putin in exchange for heading to the front.

As an aside, I didn't know this:

'A later WSJ piece put the finger of blame (on Prigozhin's death) on Nikolai Patrushev'. Who I understand has now been sidelined.
I think I read something later that said it wasn't Putin who killed him. Maybe it was the same source.

 

[Eric the meek]

The current positivity seems to be making its way into mainstream media:

'The Russian nuclear deterrent is completely unusable'. Blimey.

 

[Eric the meek]

Crimea is obviously on Ukraine's radar. This article discusses achieving the possible recapture of it with 'no boots on the ground', which we discussed back in 2023.

Putin may be about to lose Crimea

The ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ may not be sinking – but it’s quite dangerous to be aboard

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Mellotron]

'The Russian nuclear deterrent is completely unusable'. Blimey.

Haven't seen the video yet, but that's a huge statement. It's the only thing stopping Moscow being taken within a week.

 

[Eric the meek]

Haven't seen the video yet, but that's a huge statement. It's the only thing stopping Moscow being taken within a week.

He seemed to be referring to the tactical battlefield nukes, which would need to be near the Ukraine border to be within range, in which case, Ukraine could get the launchers with ATACMS missiles. Watch from around the 17:00 mark.

 

[Mellotron]

He seemed to be referring to the tactical battlefield nukes, which would need to be near the Ukraine border to be within range, in which case, Ukraine could get the launchers with ATACMS missiles. Watch from around the 17:00 mark.

Ah ok. Will do.

 

[raymondo]

Extraordinary numbers. 17,000 of those killed were former prisoners, pardoned by Putin in exchange for heading to the front.

As an aside, I didn't know this:

'A later WSJ piece put the finger of blame (on Prigozhin's death) on Nikolai Patrushev'. Who I understand has now been sidelined.
I think I read something later that said it wasn't Putin who killed him. Maybe it was the same source.

Quite possible I guess. Prigozhin could still have been useful for Putin somehow

 

[raymondo]

He seemed to be referring to the tactical battlefield nukes, which would need to be near the Ukraine border to be within range, in which case, Ukraine could get the launchers with ATACMS missiles. Watch from around the 17:00 mark.

Ukraine needs to hold back a number of ATACMS... in case supplies dry up in a few months