[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[jakarta]

its all negative for Putin unless he stays out of Ukraine.

Unfortunately the same could have been said one Adolf Hitler vs. Russia, he still waded in though...

 

[Washie]

still dont think Russia will invade. unless there is some domestic pressure on Putin im not aware of, what does he gain? his very best case scenario from here is taking control of Ukraine quickly (within a week or two) and lack lustre sanctions, niether very likely.

more likely he'll find Ukraine resist and hold him to a prolonged conflict. that make Russia look weak at home. add to that firm sanctions and the economy is seriously hit. meanwhile OPEC could take advantage by turning on oil and gas, cutting prices while cutting a competitor (they've tried this before). the Russian stock market is tanking (down 8% today) and that'll be hitting the oligarch's yacht funds, things start to look uncomfortable at home. there is a risk he gets bounced into a conflict to be seen not to backdown, while he can spin anything as positive to Vlad in the street, the more worldly Russians will wonder why he got himsef and Russia in such a position.

its all negative for Putin unless he stays out of Ukraine.

He's not very liked by the Russian population at the moment. When there is this kind of pressure from the population, there has always been one go to, start a war. Raises patriotism, makes you out in a good light for taking more land. Makes you look like a good leader. Argentina did it in the 80s with the Falklands, just didn't think we would fight back.

 

[Eric the meek]

still dont think Russia will invade. unless there is some domestic pressure on Putin im not aware of, what does he gain? his very best case scenario from here is taking control of Ukraine quickly (within a week or two) and lack lustre sanctions, niether very likely.

more likely he'll find Ukraine resist and hold him to a prolonged conflict. that make Russia look weak at home. add to that firm sanctions and the economy is seriously hit. meanwhile OPEC could take advantage by turning on oil and gas, cutting prices while cutting a competitor (they've tried this before). the Russian stock market is tanking (down 8% today) and that'll be hitting the oligarch's yacht funds, things start to look uncomfortable at home. there is a risk he gets bounced into a conflict to be seen not to backdown, while he can spin anything as positive to Vlad in the street, the more worldly Russians will wonder why he got himsef and Russia in such a position.

its all negative for Putin unless he stays out of Ukraine.

It's all negative for Putin whether or not he stays out of Ukraine. It's already a complete disaster for Putin and for Russia.

The eyes of the world are upon him. His lies, propaganda, thuggery, false flags, poisoned dissidents and gunpoint diplomacy are being discussed across the globe. Even here on NSC, ostensibly a football forum, we are discussing such wide-ranging subjects as his previous expeditions into Transdnistra and Georgia, their precedent in Finland, and Macron being advised not to take a dump in a Russian toilet.

The world has learned not to believe a single word that Putin says. Even without the invasion, his actions have reduced Russia to a rogue, bullying, pariah state.

 

[Surf's Up]

It's all negative for Putin whether or not he stays out of Ukraine. It's already a complete disaster for Putin and for Russia.

The eyes of the world are upon him. His lies, propaganda, thuggery, false flags, poisoned dissidents and gunpoint diplomacy are being discussed across the globe. Even here on NSC, ostensibly a football forum, we are discussing such wide-ranging subjects as his previous expeditions into Transdnistra and Georgia, their precedent in Finland, and Macron being advised not to take a dump in a Russian toilet.

The world has learned not to believe a single word that Putin says. Even without the invasion, his actions have reduced Russia to a rogue, bullying, pariah state.

A bit like Johnson on a much larger scale, Putin really doesn't give a flying **** about what the rest of the world (with the exception of China) thinks and he'll carry on lying, dissembling, creating false narratives and behaving with total impunity because he can and no-one in the West has the balls to stand up to him. He now holds most of the aces and the vast majority of the Russian speaking world thinks the sun shines out of his arse.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

It's all negative for Putin whether or not he stays out of Ukraine. It's already a complete disaster for Putin and for Russia.

The eyes of the world are upon him. His lies, propaganda, thuggery, false flags, poisoned dissidents and gunpoint diplomacy are being discussed across the globe. Even here on NSC, ostensibly a football forum, we are discussing such wide-ranging subjects as his previous expeditions into Transdnistra and Georgia, their precedent in Finland, and Macron being advised not to take a dump in a Russian toilet.

The world has learned not to believe a single word that Putin says. Even without the invasion, his actions have reduced Russia to a rogue, bullying, pariah state.

Is it? Crikey.

But yes, your point stands. The western world is now strongly united against Putin's thuggery.

 

[peterward]

off to the airport...... our Ukrainian guest now over Polish airspace. Thanks for all the well wishes.

Another interesting twitter thread/perspective

[tweet]1495715672768274434[/tweet]

 

[Eric the meek]

[/B]

A bit like Johnson on a much larger scale, Putin really doesn't give a flying **** about what the rest of the world (with the exception of China) thinks and he'll carry on lying, dissembling, creating false narratives and behaving with total impunity because he can and no-one in the West has the balls to stand up to him. He now holds most of the aces and the vast majority of the Russian speaking world thinks the sun shines out of his arse.

You miss the point. The more he is being discussed around the world, no doubt mainly on social media, the greater the chance that ordinary Russians will - slowly - become aware of the reality.

BTW, feel free to share your source of data on the views of 'the vast majority of the Russian speaking world'. I'm talking about their views offered free of fear.

 

[jakarta]

You miss the point. The more he is being discussed around the world, no doubt mainly on social media, the greater the chance that ordinary Russians will - slowly - become aware of the reality.

BTW, feel free to share your source of data on the views of 'the vast majority of the Russian speaking world'. I'm talking about their views offered free of fear.

Was in Moscow & St. Petersburg a couple of years ago - Putin has very high popularity with most Russians I'm afraid to say.

They do like a 'Hard Man' leader even though the last one of course killed millions of them...

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

off to the airport...... our Ukrainian guest now over Polish airspace. Thanks for all the well wishes.

Another interesting twitter thread/perspective

[tweet]1495715672768274434[/tweet]

Everything he says makes sense

 

[Eric the meek]

Was in Moscow & St. Petersburg a couple of years ago - Putin has very high popularity with most Russians I'm afraid to say.

They do like a 'Hard Man' leader even though the last one of course killed millions of them...

Haha. I'm sure you're right. 100% of Russians give the thumbs up to Putin when asked what they think of him by a foreign stranger.

It was Churchill who said that the strongest argument against democracy was to hold a five minute conversation with a member of the electorate.

The only problem is, Russia doesn't have an electorate. So Putin doesn't hold 5 minute conversations with it. All they know of Putin is his persona through the prism of Russian state television. When they did experience an alternative leader, Putin's predecessor Yeltsin, many voted with their feet, and chose independence.

 

[amexer]

Of course they would not do it but with the world apart China and North Korea against Russia what if Nato told Putin they will bomb Moscow if he starts bombing Ukraine

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Of course they would not do it but with the world apart China and North Korea against Russia what if Nato told Putin they will bomb Moscow if he starts bombing Ukraine

Then Western capital cities would suffer a similar fate and the whole thing will soon snowball out of control

 

[Washie]

Was in Moscow & St. Petersburg a couple of years ago - Putin has very high popularity with most Russians I'm afraid to say.

They do like a 'Hard Man' leader even though the last one of course killed millions of them...

In 2021 alone he lost a lot of support. Due to patriotism they will always big up their leader to a westerner, but he is now a Trump like figure. Very divisive, either loved or seriously hated and he seems to be losing supporters by the day. Quite a lot of Russians aren't happy with what he's doing as the economy isnt great as it is.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

To me the answer is economic sanctions on Russia

But not the sanctions we usually have, because they are don't go anywhere near far enough. In my mind it should be along the lines of, Western nations agree to .....

Make illegal the import of any Russian goods or services or commodities for a fixed period and make illegal the approval of visas of any Russian national say a decade if they invade.

Yeh, we'll suffer because of it, but not as much as the people of Ukraine will if they go in.

It also goes without saying that money laundering laws need to be massively tightened

 

[jakarta]

Haha. I'm sure you're right. 100% of Russians give the thumbs up to Putin when asked what they think of him by a foreign stranger.

It was Churchill who said that the strongest argument against democracy was to hold a five minute conversation with a member of the electorate.

The only problem is, Russia doesn't have an electorate. So Putin doesn't hold 5 minute conversations with it. All they know of Putin is his persona through the prism of Russian state television. When they did experience an alternative leader, Putin's predecessor Yeltsin, many voted with their feet, and chose independence.

As I am sure I have posted previously our Russian Tour Guide told us in all seriousness that Russia was surrounded by Countries who didn't like them.

Again I'm sure I have already posted the riposte I should have given i.e. stop invading them them and massacring their people then

 

[raymondo]

off to the airport...... our Ukrainian guest now over Polish airspace. Thanks for all the well wishes.

Another interesting twitter thread/perspective

[tweet]1495715672768274434[/tweet]

Fantastic news, enjoy the reunion and celebrate! And well done for having plans A, B and C to get the result.

 

[Solid at the back]

To me the answer is economic sanctions on Russia

But not the sanctions we usually have, because they are don't go anywhere near far enough. In my mind it should be along the lines of, Western nations agree to .....

Make illegal the import of any Russian goods or services or commodities for a fixed period and make illegal the approval of visas of any Russian national say a decade if they invade.

Yeh, we'll suffer because of it, but not as much as the people of Ukraine will if they go in.

It also goes without saying that money laundering laws need to be massively tightened

Why don't western leaders just stop Russian nationals from entering their territories? That would cause so much unrest in Russia.

 

[raymondo]

To me the answer is economic sanctions on Russia

But not the sanctions we usually have, because they are don't go anywhere near far enough. In my mind it should be along the lines of, Western nations agree to .....

Make illegal the import of any Russian goods or services or commodities for a fixed period and make illegal the approval of visas of any Russian national say a decade if they invade.

Yeh, we'll suffer because of it, but not as much as the people of Ukraine will if they go in.

It also goes without saying that money laundering laws need to be massively tightened

And send back with immediate effect all Russian kids being educated in our public schools (a few thousand, and a lot of it will be dirty money), and possibly Universities too.
We need to stop educating the children of the Russian elite.

 

[beorhthelm]

And send back with immediate effect all Russian kids being educated in our public schools (a few thousand, and a lot of it will be dirty money), and possibly Universities too.
We need to stop educating the children of the Russian elite.

that is not how you influence and win over next generation. point out that not all Russians, even oligarchs, are necessarily pro-Putin.

 

[vegster]

Putin working on multiple levels now to get his war started.

Shelling from the Disputed regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in order to get a response from Ukraine.

the unbelievable claims of " Ethnic Cleansing " of Russians in Ukraine

The Disinformation War

Multiple False Flag operations , these being shown on Russian state tv for justification purposes when he moves.

Unreasonable and impossible demands on the NATO Alliance.

And today, he will " Announce " he has decided to recognise as republics, the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk thus allowing Russian forces to be invited in on " Humanitarian " grounds to protect them.

Looking worse and worse sadly, just this one man and his arrogance because he knows one way or another he will get away with it as usual just like all his other crooked and illegal acts.