Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
And maybe a last minute glimmer of hope.
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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)
- Thread starter vegster
- Start date
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
No it doesn’t. NATO is not America. NATO isn’t against anyone, even if America does want something different, which they don’t.
Ukraine is a sovereign nation that should be allowed its own choice. The only aggressor here is Putin who has already reclaimed Crimea and Belarus. He wants to show force to his people as proof of his ‘power’.
Disagree with him in Russia and you fall out of windows or get imprisoned.
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
I worked with a colleague from Belarus who married a British man. She told me what happened in Belarus and to her family.
I’ve also worked in NATO HQ.
Yes, Zaporozhye is a decent city. My wife has also flown in and out with LOT via Warsaw.
Indeed they are very stoic people. My in-laws didn't really want independence, and they then lost their life savings retained by a Moscow bank. Their Collective farming village fell apart after independence...so, as you will know, it's very complicated in that area. They are basically poor farmers of a smallholding now - they dislike all politicians, detest Putin and just want to live their 'retirement' in safety.
We worry most about my wife's teenage nieces. We help them all monetarily as needed, but are feeling helpless in the face of current events.
My wife doesn't believe they will invade, thinks it's all posturing; I hope she's right, but I fear she's wrong.
Good luck today
. R
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
I don't know if the large US aerial refuelling deployment caused Putin to blink or not, but a huge sigh of relief from me this morning.
It can all fall apart with a false flag attack on Russian soil at any time but for now things seem to have stabilised.
Tonight is another dangerous time.
It can all fall apart with a false flag attack on Russian soil at any time but for now things seem to have stabilised.
Tonight is another dangerous time.
Nobby Cybergoat
Well-known member
- Jul 19, 2021
- 8,253
I've heard a few comments about the winter olympics ending being a possible trigger for the invasion? Anyone think this is remotely credible?
Separately I want to add my weight to the many voices saying, that it's quite OK to hold the view that the "UK shouldn't have invaded Iraq" and the view that "Putin shouldn't invade Ukraine" at the same time
Separately I want to add my weight to the many voices saying, that it's quite OK to hold the view that the "UK shouldn't have invaded Iraq" and the view that "Putin shouldn't invade Ukraine" at the same time
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
China publicly requested no wars until 1 week after the paralympics have finished.I've heard a few comments about the winter olympics ending being a possible trigger for the invasion? Anyone think this is remotely credible?
Separately I want to add my weight to the many voices saying, that it's quite OK to hold the view that the "UK shouldn't have invaded Iraq" and the view that "Putin shouldn't invade Ukraine" at the same time
That takes us to March 20th.
Whether this has changed in meetings between China and Russia since, or Putin simply doesn't care, remains to be seen.
Nobby Cybergoat
Well-known member
- Jul 19, 2021
- 8,253
Great to see they have such laser focus on the value of human life. Not an expert at all, but not sure how practical it would be for Putin to just keep his forces sat there another month
Perhaps we should put in a request for no wars until after Wimbledon? Then maybe the French could request no more wars until a week after the Tour de France? FIFA could then chip in with a request to finish the WC in Qatar first (and that would be the only outcome that would justify having the damn thing in Qatar in the first place). Keep it up until Putin drops dead - job done (although sadly may take quite a few years).
Nobby Cybergoat
Well-known member
- Jul 19, 2021
- 8,253
Though, i'm very much hoping some polonium finds it's way into his tea, via the goon of some oligarch who's business interest is going to be hit
- Nov 11, 2009
- 11,969
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
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- Nov 11, 2009
- 11,969
Couple of very interesting other perspectives I read, one is from the the former top general of US forces after visiting Kyiv and speaking to Zelensky and other Ukrainian politicians.
He said theat beyond the obvious invasion threat, that all the troops are are acting like an economic boa constrictor on the Ukrainain economy, bleeding money, causing capital flight, contract cancellations, flight cancellations etc and the naval exercises in the black sea are effectively cutting off ukrainian shipping exports. at a minimum, he suggests, Russia will keep this posture in the hope of collpasing the government economically.
Another intersting series of tweets and potential thesis from Mark Urban Diplomatic editor of BBC newsnight, whose suggestions seem both plausible, and wouldnt risk Russians in body bags and I guess, the Kremlin could still use as an excuse that "they had no intention to invade"... is to use a the NATO Kosovo template (where real genocide occurred) just wipe out and destroy infrastructure to stop the fake "genocide" against civilians. Click to expand the tweet series
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And the last bit I just read in the Guardian from former Ukrainian minister, and it does also seem plausible that Putin with a set end goal of destablising/destroying and ultimately getting control of Ukraine under his heel and another puppet government, is operating a more flexible policy with one end goal but changing methods depending on blowback/risks?
"If Vladimir Putin has already decided to invade Ukraine, can he be stopped? Ukraine’s former defence minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk thinks he can - if the west is ready to be decisive and spell out the consequences of war.
Zagorodnyuk thinks war can still be averted:
So, what are the options and is it too late to stop it all?
We believe, even with the very short time available, that it is still possible to stop Putin from starting war. But that largely depends on the steps made by world leaders in the next day or two.
We know from studying the Russian decision-making process for years that they always choose from a few options available. While being very persistent with his end goals, Putin has adopted an agile approach: when he meets serious resistance, he will step back and adjust his actions.
World leaders need to demonstrate to Putin that this will not be a quick victorious war, but a disaster that will lead to Russian political isolation, sanctions that will destroy its economy, and a humiliating military defeat. Ultimately, it could mark the end of Putin’s political career, leaving his place in history as the architect of Russia’s decline instead of a period of grandeur.
The steps the west could take to persuade him of this are clear. Sanctions must be imposed to stop Russia having an active role in the global economy. Russia makes a lot of money from the west, its businesspeople reside in the UK, US and Europe, it is a member of western capital markets, a major supplier of commodities, and enjoys the perks of that involvement. At the same time, it violently challenges the very principles upon which western democracies are founded. Russian society needs to understand that the west will stop it. The sanctions must not just be hard, they must be devastating."
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
It's on video somewhere.
A Chinese official requested to the world that there be no wars between 1 week before the Olympics until 1 week after the Paralympics.
No one knows if Putin got an exemption when he met the Chinese or not, but just this week another Chinese official is on record as saying that diplomacy is the way to go in Ukraine.
No one knows what goes on in Putin's head though.
- Nov 11, 2009
- 11,969
This on the guardian is again more concerning... It's a yo yo of thinking it might be ok, to all out war a few times per day.
"Western leaders are showing “unbelievable naivety” if they think a summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin can avert war now, according to the respected Russian politics analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.
In a post on her Telegram account, following late-night diplomacy between Putin and Emmanuel Macron, she argues the train has already left the station. “Everything has already been decided,” she said, following the west’s refusal to give the Russian president security guarantees - namely a veto on Nato expansion and rollback of the alliance’s forces to pre-1997 borders. “Just talking on the phone and exchanging concerns will not stop anything,” she writes. “Everything is already starting up.”
Long-term observers of Russian politics hope she is wrong..."
[tweet]1495721481602543618[/tweet]
"Western leaders are showing “unbelievable naivety” if they think a summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin can avert war now, according to the respected Russian politics analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.
In a post on her Telegram account, following late-night diplomacy between Putin and Emmanuel Macron, she argues the train has already left the station. “Everything has already been decided,” she said, following the west’s refusal to give the Russian president security guarantees - namely a veto on Nato expansion and rollback of the alliance’s forces to pre-1997 borders. “Just talking on the phone and exchanging concerns will not stop anything,” she writes. “Everything is already starting up.”
Long-term observers of Russian politics hope she is wrong..."
[tweet]1495721481602543618[/tweet]
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
I'm sure one of Putin's side bonuses would be to make Macron look like a mug to boost his preferred choices in the French Presidential elections.
There are reasons to fear invasion tonight. A while back a nutter in the Russian Parliament predicted some geopolitical changes at 4am on Feb 22nd. Quite a prediction.
It is Presidents Day tomorrow. Putin could send Biden a horrible "gift".
If we get through this week then perhaps I can be more optimistic.
- Nov 11, 2009
- 11,969
My mother in laws aircraft is 2 hours late! its Ryanair and orginated in Manchester, just approaching Kyiv now and as I was following it in, just came across this? do you reckon its some form of US AWACS early warning monitoring aircraft?
Edit:
Having checked the aircraft type in description, it looks like a massive unmanned drone thing?
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Hove / Παρος
Hope your Mother in Law get's out OK.
The aircraft you've posted is a remotely piloted surveillance drone - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_RQ-4_Global_Hawk
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
Yes.
There are all sorts of manned and unmanned surveillance aircraft flying over Ukraine ( there have been for a while ).
I think your mother in law will be ok by the way. If she was travelling tomorrow I'd be more concerned.
Of course, no one really knows at this point.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,822
still dont think Russia will invade. unless there is some domestic pressure on Putin im not aware of, what does he gain? his very best case scenario from here is taking control of Ukraine quickly (within a week or two) and lack lustre sanctions, niether very likely.
more likely he'll find Ukraine resist and hold him to a prolonged conflict. that make Russia look weak at home. add to that firm sanctions and the economy is seriously hit. meanwhile OPEC could take advantage by turning on oil and gas, cutting prices while cutting a competitor (they've tried this before). the Russian stock market is tanking (down 8% today) and that'll be hitting the oligarch's yacht funds, things start to look uncomfortable at home. there is a risk he gets bounced into a conflict to be seen not to backdown, while he can spin anything as positive to Vlad in the street, the more worldly Russians will wonder why he got himsef and Russia in such a position.
its all negative for Putin unless he stays out of Ukraine.
more likely he'll find Ukraine resist and hold him to a prolonged conflict. that make Russia look weak at home. add to that firm sanctions and the economy is seriously hit. meanwhile OPEC could take advantage by turning on oil and gas, cutting prices while cutting a competitor (they've tried this before). the Russian stock market is tanking (down 8% today) and that'll be hitting the oligarch's yacht funds, things start to look uncomfortable at home. there is a risk he gets bounced into a conflict to be seen not to backdown, while he can spin anything as positive to Vlad in the street, the more worldly Russians will wonder why he got himsef and Russia in such a position.
its all negative for Putin unless he stays out of Ukraine.