Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Is it PotG?]

No idea, don't do all these graphs, but is our growth of infection still running parallel to that of Italy, albeit a week or so behind?

 

[Notters]

No one I know is panicking. No one on here is demonstrably panicking that I can see.

I'm massively panicking but it's probably just me.

 

[Nobby]

Your response to new UK figures was:



(Nobody on here acted 'horrified')

Your response to enlightening new data offering a fresh perspective was:





That's literally being a troll. Or just a dick.

Stop quoting the imbecile. I keep seeing his post and I have him I ignore.

Use the ignore function

 

[dingodan]

Your response to new UK figures was:



(Nobody on here acted 'horrified')

Your response to enlightening new data offering a fresh perspective was:





That's literally being a troll. Or just a dick.

To be honest, it could also just be his way of dealing with fear.

We all react differently, and whatever points people might try to score against each other in this thread (myself included in my weaker moments), we are all in the same boat.

I think what is uncomfortable for a lot of people is the disconnect between that seemingly calm world immediately outside our windows, and what we fear may be coming. It's the calm before the storm and that can be the most anxious time of all for many people.

Do what you can for yourself and your family. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Control those things you can control, and try not to fret about those things that you can't.

We're probably in for a rough and painful few weeks.

 

[DumLum]

still not crazy though is it

It's bang on track to explode soon.

 

[dazzer6666]

You are trolling and I'll stop it if you don't.

Look, read the below...

No one I know is panicking. No one on here is demonstrably panicking that I can see.

No one is disputing that most people who get this will be OK.

However, the potential numbers at play here are frightening which is where most of the concern stems from...

- Due to expected exponential growth of the virus a lot of people will be sick requiring specialist help at the same time. This could happen in the very near future.
- The NHS could become overwhelmed very quickly due to lack of resources, both equipment and care professionals (it is estimated up to 25% of NHS staff could be off sick themselves at times. Some, of course, will also die and never return to work)
- People who would otherwise be nursed to recovery may well die.
- Those who have other ongoing serious conditions may well die as the NHS is unable to continue the treatment they require.
- Those who need ad hoc specialist care - those involved in road accidents, mother's who have complications giving birth - may die as they can't be cared for properly.

Kids may largely get off lightly with this, but once you multiply this up over 30, 40, 60 or even 80% of the population, many will die. Maybe they just get unlucky with the virus, maybe they had previously unknown health complications.

The above applies to other age groups - all low risk, but no one is "no risk".

The odds may be on my side and on my family's side, but I can't be a blasé prick about the potential implications of this on others, probable in the eyes of many who know far more than you and I about this.

I'm really not at all bothered about catching it
I am, though, very worried about (perhaps without knowing) passing it on to someone more vulnerable
I really fear for the consequences of an explosion in the number of cases on the NHS, staff in the NHS and the vulnerable (been exchanging messages with my daughter today on it - some of the measures her hospital are having to take are drastic, some of the decisions are genuinely shocking - like putting the planned isolation ward next to the one full of elderly patients with auto-immune deficiencies - and the staff themselves are dreading the consequences. Some people will be left to die................

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

Maybe that's not the case, but you definitely can't test people who don't report symptoms or have such mild ones they are dismissed.

Sorry - are you saying that a doctor say, not realising they are a carrier should not be tested ? Or anyone working in or visiting a hospital. Or care home workers. Or someone coming in on a flight from Milan ? If they look ok - that's fine ?

There is a problem with testing capacity that the government are apparently addressing. And there is the (current) three day delay in getting results returned. And this is an example of the potential issue that Bozza described - that the NHS resources are stretched and can't deal with their standard routines that keep other issues under control for people.

 

[dangull]

Not had any figures from Italy today? Would be interesting to see if the new measures are taking effect.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Sorry - are you saying that a doctor say, not realising they are a carrier should not be tested ? Or anyone working in or visiting a hospital. Or care home workers. Or someone coming in on a flight from Milan ? If they look ok - that's fine ?

No, far from it. I'm saying are the authorities aware of everyone who is self isolating? Do we have risks out there we simply don't know about because they are not very ill and not obviously connected to a diagnosed case? Health care people I have spoken to believe the instances in this country are far higher than the official figures, but not for the reasons dingodan stated.

There is a problem with testing capacity that the government are apparently addressing. And there is the (current) three day delay in getting results returned. And this is an example of the potential issue that Bozza described - that the NHS resources are stretched and can't deal with their standard routines that keep other issues under control for people.

Agreed, and I'm calling that out too. If there is an issue with test capacity, then you are going to prioritise your test kits, non?

 

[MJsGhost]

I'm really not at all bothered about catching it
I am, though, very worried about (perhaps without knowing) passing it on to someone more vulnerable
I really fear for the consequences of an explosion in the number of cases on the NHS, staff in the NHS and the vulnerable (been exchanging messages with my daughter today on it - some of the measures her hospital are having to take are drastic, some of the decisions are genuinely shocking - like putting the planned isolation ward next to the one full of elderly patients with auto-immune deficiencies - and the staff themselves are dreading the consequences. Some people will be left to die................

Absolutely this

 

[Swansman]

Not had any figures from Italy today? Would be interesting to see if the new measures are taking effect.

No numbers yet it seems, should come soon.

Probably too early to see the effects of the Italian measures anyway.

 

[DumLum]

Not had any figures from Italy today? Would be interesting to see if the new measures are taking effect.

Isn't it a bit soon for the new measures to be working?

 

[Triggaaar]

Italy exceeded their critical care capacity days ago. The European intensive care community is relatively close knit - we all have friends and colleagues in EU hospitals and we see each other often at conferences and the like. The news from Italy is incredibly sad. The units are full, no operations are occurring as patients are being ventilated in theaters. Portable ventilators are being used.

Italy recently released a set of COVID guidelines aimed at addressing resource allocation in times of severe demand and lack of supply. This is the first time I have seen guidelines in a first world country suggest that older patients (who have survivable illness) are not considered for intubation and ventilation in order to allow capacity to treat younger patients.

.

 

[Swansman]

Now the new Italian numbers came:

"Italy deaths increase by 196
The death toll from the coronavirus in Italy has risen from 631 to 827 in a day, Reuters reports. At the same time, the total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the country rose by more than 2,000, from 10,149 on Tuesday to 12,462 today, it says."

 

[peterward]

You are trolling and I'll stop it if you don't.

Look, read the below...

No one I know is panicking. No one on here is demonstrably panicking that I can see.

No one is disputing that most people who get this will be OK.

However, the potential numbers at play here are frightening which is where most of the concern stems from...

- Due to expected exponential growth of the virus a lot of people will be sick requiring specialist help at the same time. This could happen in the very near future.
- The NHS could become overwhelmed very quickly due to lack of resources, both equipment and care professionals (it is estimated up to 25% of NHS staff could be off sick themselves at times. Some, of course, will also die and never return to work)
- People who would otherwise be nursed to recovery may well die.
- Those who have other ongoing serious conditions may well die as the NHS is unable to continue the treatment they require.
- Those who need ad hoc specialist care - those involved in road accidents, mother's who have complications giving birth - may die as they can't be cared for properly.

Kids may largely get off lightly with this, but once you multiply this up over 30, 40, 60 or even 80% of the population, many will die. Maybe they just get unlucky with the virus, maybe they had previously unknown health complications.

The above applies to other age groups - all low risk, but no one is "no risk".

The odds may be on my side and on my family's side, but I can't be a blasé prick about the potential implications of this on others, probable in the eyes of many who know far more than you and I about this.

Everything you just wrote, was sort of summed up in a coronavirus phone in I listened to on R5L ethis morning in the car.

On it a virologist said that whilst the diseases mortality would likely drop from the 3.4%, there will be a considerable indirect mortality increase because of it, once the health service starts to be overwhelmed, Drs have to choose who to use limited respirators/drugs/equipment on and a whole range of other non covid related cases get relegated urgency.

 

[Triggaaar]

It has taken the UK 11 days to go from 24 cases to 373. Italy went from 4 to 470 in 7 days, with a jump of 147 cases in a single day taking them to that point.

I'm interested in the data you've posted and will continue to read through it, but I'd say that Italy didn't jump from 4 to 470 in 7 days, but instead they have a lot more than 4 cases, but they weren't aware they had them. Of course all countries will have more than they realise, as not everyone has been tested, but I'd say Italy's figures were further behind the actual number at the start, before they realised what was happening.

 

[peterward]

I'm massively panicking but it's probably just me.

Not panicking, just waiting in expectation now tbh.

There's a pretty famous and harrowing video of the 2004 Tsunami in Thailand, of a guy on the beach as the massive wave comes towards him. He can't run or do anything and the wave engulfs him..... It feels a bit like that metaphorically......this thing is coming, it will get bigger, not anything our society can do to stop it.... And just hope that you and yours will all pop out the other side still ok

 

[Blazing Apostle]

Blimey with all Italy doing they still seeing big daily increases

 

[peterward]

Blimey with all Italy doing they still seeing big daily increases

The infections today are likely to have caught it pre quarantine, the deaths even earlier. It will take a couple of weeks to see any potential impact of quarantine.

 

[CheeseRolls]

No, far from it. I'm saying are the authorities aware of everyone who is self isolating? Do we have risks out there we simply don't know about because they are not very ill and not obviously connected to a diagnosed case? Health care people I have spoken to believe the instances in this country are far higher than the official figures, but not for the reasons dingodan stated.



Agreed, and I'm calling that out too. If there is an issue with test capacity, then you are going to prioritise your test kits, non?

I can see where you are heading with this, making the best of a bad job and all that, but under-testing is an exercise in futility and needs to be fixed. If you can identify infected individuals before they are infectious, you can have a major impact on the rate of spread of the virus. It doesn't really matter how mild the symptoms are for an individual.

There are a number of people on this thread (not pointing the finger at you here, who are looking at graphs as if it was the Olympic medal table (Team GB are doing rather well). The only thing is Taiwan are winning all the gold medals and we don't seem particularly interested to find out why.