Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[dsr-burnley]

What is stopping her, and many others, that will (or won't) change on 21st June though?

Specifically, if restrictions are ended, then the rooms in which they meet will become open instead of closed. You can't hold public meetings when the rooms you meet in are not available for hire. It is not helped, of course, by councils and most churches being on the side of "better safe than sorry" to an absurd degree.

 

[beorhthelm]

This is vital. There are (IMHO perfectly legitimate) questions to be asked and debates to be had about delaying the removal of virtually all restrictions on 21st June, but I have not seen anyone at all claiming we need to roll back from where we are now. And I don't regard the status we're currently in as being "lockdown", we haven't been in lockdown since the "Stay At Home" rules ended back in March.

they dont tend not to say it outright, its defiantly inferred from some. if the worse case presented are correct, the hospital admissions would be beyond the winter peak, which would certainly be returning to full lockdown. lets wait until 14th to evaluate that. instead we've had two weeks of hearing they must delay and potentially reverse lifted restrictions.

there is the basic question asked last week, how can it be that bad when most the population is vaccinated: do they not work or is this variant go past the protection? the formal answers given are it works fine and offers protection. so then why the poor forecasts? the data has a bunch of assumptions and factors we arent equiped to dissect and unpick. all i know is when i run the simulations with even high R on the current vaccine, the third wave doesnt happen, or a bit of blip in autumn/winter.

 

[crodonilson]

they dont tend not to say it outright, its defiantly inferred from some. if the worse case presented are correct, the hospital admissions would be beyond the winter peak, which would certainly be returning to full lockdown. lets wait until 14th to evaluate that. instead we've had two weeks of hearing they must delay and potentially reverse lifted restrictions.

there is the basic question asked last week, how can it be that bad when most the population is vaccinated: do they not work or is this variant go past the protection? the formal answers given are it works fine and offers protection. so then why the poor forecasts? the data has a bunch of assumptions and factors we arent equiped to dissect and unpick. all i know is when i run the simulations with even high R on the current vaccine, the third wave doesnt happen, or a bit of blip in autumn/winter.

Cases are doubling every 10 days or so with the new variant, extrapolated that means we could have 40,000 daily cases by early July, while one dose is very poor at preventing illness and transmission. This would mean even with vaccines there will be many more hospitalisations (not to mention early data suggests you are 2.5 times more likely to be hospitalised with this variant). The vaccine is helping weaken the chain between cases and hospitalisations but has not broken it.


Put another way we would be in a right state and quickly back on lockdown were it not for the vaccinations we've done.

 

[Napper]

new variant arrives , scare the masses , push the jabs , turns out variant is covered by vaccine and hospitals and deaths don't increase massively.

rinse and repeat

delay lifting of life where possible

rinse , repeat

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

new variant arrives , scare the masses , push the jabs , turns out variant is covered by vaccine and hospitals and deaths don't increase massively.

rinse and repeat

delay lifting of life where possible

rinse , repeat

The danger of all this is the public switch off from a potential threat and or stop getting jabbed, because what's the point (not something I agree with) especially with the younger groups.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Cases are doubling every 10 days or so with the new variant, extrapolated that means we could have 40,000 daily cases by early July, while one dose is very poor at preventing illness and transmission. This would mean even with vaccines there will be many more hospitalisations (not to mention early data suggests you are 2.5 times more likely to be hospitalised with this variant). The vaccine is helping weaken the chain between cases and hospitalisations but has not broken it.


Put another way we would be in a right state and quickly back on lockdown were it not for the vaccinations we've done.

When you say "cases are doubling every ten 10 days or so", are you looking back at a series of 10-day periods and working out a series of results, or are you just looking at yesterday's figure and comparing it with 10 days ago? And by "every 10 days", how many sets of 10-day periods are you looking at - I can't find data to suggest that it's more than one 10-day period, but if that were true you would be being so misleading as to being close to lying. Obviously you wouldn't say "every 10 days" when you mean just the last 10 days. Would you?

Anyway, I wouldn't worry too much about July. That's small beer. If we extrapolate to the end of July, we have 320k per day, by the end of August 2.5m, by the end of September 20m, and by the end of October we will all be catching this virus twice a day. Lord knows what that will do to the death rate. Let's just hope that simple extrapolation is a meaningless exercise.

As for the last sentence, it's hardly relevant, is it. We aren't going to plan the future based on where we might have been if we had been somewhere else.

Incidentally, in Bolton cases doubled each week for 3 weeks then plateaud. Admissions to hospital and numbers in hospital doubled for two weeks and then started to drop.

 

[crodonilson]

When you say "cases are doubling every ten 10 days or so", are you looking back at a series of 10-day periods and working out a series of results, or are you just looking at yesterday's figure and comparing it with 10 days ago? And by "every 10 days", how many sets of 10-day periods are you looking at - I can't find data to suggest that it's more than one 10-day period, but if that were true you would be being so misleading as to being close to lying. Obviously you wouldn't say "every 10 days" when you mean just the last 10 days. Would you?

Anyway, I wouldn't worry too much about July. That's small beer. If we extrapolate to the end of July, we have 320k per day, by the end of August 2.5m, by the end of September 20m, and by the end of October we will all be catching this virus twice a day. Lord knows what that will do to the death rate. Let's just hope that simple extrapolation is a meaningless exercise.

As for the last sentence, it's hardly relevant, is it. We aren't going to plan the future based on where we might have been if we had been somewhere else.

Incidentally, in Bolton cases doubled each week for 3 weeks then plateaud. Admissions to hospital and numbers in hospital doubled for two weeks and then started to drop.

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-04/covid-infection-rate-in-england-almost-doubles-in-a-week-and-is-at-highest-level-since-april-new-figures-show-ons-r-number

I think the above shows it's almost doubled in a week, remember as well done of the increases have been disguised because generally they have been a mix between a variant which is not increasing rapidly (Kent variant) and the new variant which is, now that the Indian variant has become dominant and the other variants become nearly nil the doubling rate will increase further.

 

[atomised]

Almost doubled in a week is hugely different to the doubling every 10 days you claimed which suggested it had been an ongoing rise for some time

 

[dsr-burnley]

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-04/covid-infection-rate-in-england-almost-doubles-in-a-week-and-is-at-highest-level-since-april-new-figures-show-ons-r-number

I think the above shows it's almost doubled in a week, remember as well done of the increases have been disguised because generally they have been a mix between a variant which is not increasing rapidly (Kent variant) and the new variant which is, now that the Indian variant has become dominant and the other variants become nearly nil the doubling rate will increase further.

You mean we might all catch the virus twice a day in September instead of October?

Why has it stopped doubling in Bolton?

 

[Yoda]

Cases are doubling every 10 days or so with the new variant, extrapolated that means we could have 40,000 daily cases by early July, while one dose is very poor at preventing illness and transmission. This would mean even with vaccines there will be many more hospitalisations (not to mention early data suggests you are 2.5 times more likely to be hospitalised with this variant). The vaccine is helping weaken the chain between cases and hospitalisations but has not broken it.


Put another way we would be in a right state and quickly back on lockdown were it not for the vaccinations we've done.

Taken from the Twitter feed Harty just posted:

•EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO NOTE: Antibody neutralization is NOT the same as vaccine efficacy, as in a 5.8-fold reduction in antibody
neutralization does NOT mean the same thing for vaccine efficacy!
•This study showed a 2.2-fold reduction in neutralization for variant B.1.617.2 (Delta) relative to variant B.1.1.7 (Alpha) (5.9 / 2.6)
•PHE data so far shows a ~10% drop in vaccine efficacy for variant B.1.617.2
(Delta) compared to B.1.1.7 (Alpha) after two doses of Pfizer- see how different that is when we look at it on a different scale? It’s important to know this.

Also rather comforting from that is this chart showing only 36 cases needed at least an overnight stay in hospital out of 1934 infections where someone had at least one jab (303 of these before the 1st dose was fully effective):

 

[Napper]

The danger of all this is the public switch off from a potential threat and or stop getting jabbed, because what's the point (not something I agree with) especially with the younger groups.

don't agree. recovery 99.6% so key thing was always elderly and vulnerable.

Look at the stats beyond the hype

all covered before anyway haven't we

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

don't agree. recovery 99.6% so key thing was always elderly and vulnerable.

Look at the stats beyond the hype

all covered before anyway haven't we

You still need younger people to be jabbed.

 

[Bozza]

there is the basic question asked last week, how can it be that bad when most the population is vaccinated:

Because they're not.

We're currently at around 40% of the population fully vaccinated which puts tens of millions with either no or low/building immunity.

And here we circle back to the "yes, yes but the vulnerable are all protected".

Are they? The known MOST vulnerable, ie old and/or with conditions are protected but amongst the vast swathes of unprotected/limited protected there will be a lot of vulnerable people - we just don't know who they are.

If the Delta variant is as highly transmissible as most informed opinion now suggests AND it can result in more hospitalisations (jury still out on that one) then it could lead to a big surge in demand for hospital care.

At this point we inevitably get to "yes, yes, but these people are young and fit - most of them will survive"

Will they? Most will survive if they are able to receive the care they need. Should the hospitals be overwhelmed then they wouldn't all get the care they need, leading to worst outcomes for some. Additionally, the surge could stop all manner of other NHS services, impacting those with other conditions who need care.

Like most - I scratched my head when I heard of the worst case outcomes from Delta. "But we have one of the best vaccination programmes in the world, and all the oldies have been protected" I thought. But I also know I'm a layman and know almost nothing about epidemiology and large-scale public healthcare so I spent some time, and continue to do so, to read from those who have concerns in order to understand why. And the above is broadly it. So I've got no interest in arguing the toss over it, as these aren't my views. Like almost everyone reading these words, I'm a layman.

 

[crodonilson]

Over 6,000 cases announced today, this is getting out of hand.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Over 6,000 cases announced today, this is getting out of hand.

I knew you'd be posting on here in quick time.

 

[darkwolf666]

I knew you'd be pleased.

That's more than a bit snidey and uncalled for.

Crodo has clearly voiced his concerns over the last few weeks, no after timer there, and don't suppose for one minute he is gloating, in a "told you so way"

 

[dsr-burnley]

That's more than a bit snidey and uncalled for.

Crodo has clearly voiced his concerns over the last few weeks, no after timer there, and don't suppose for one minute he is gloating, in a "told you so way"

That avatar picture doesn't help. Why does someone who posts nothing but bad news and depressing speculation have an avatar that looks so pleased with itself?

Anyway, I've edited it now.

 

[darkwolf666]

That avatar picture doesn't help. Why does someone who posts nothing but bad news and depressing speculation have an avatar that looks so pleased with itself?

Anyway, I've edited it now.

Agree re the avatar, but he is clearly a very concerned individual and if memory serves me right has some health issues of concern.

Probably, like me, he finds it difficult to understand why some want to charge blindly into the abyss of the unknown for the sake of a few more months, to allow the vaccination programme to fully roll out, a little worrying!

Oh and nice edit...

 

[beorhthelm]

Probably, like me, he finds it difficult to understand why some want to charge blindly into the abyss of the unknown for the sake of a few more months, to allow the vaccination programme to fully roll out, a little worrying!

so what should be done, continue as present or a roll back to earlier restrictions, and for how long?

 

[darkwolf666]

so what should be done, continue as present or a roll back to earlier restrictions, and for how long?

For me carry on as at present, unless the Delta variant begins to cause significant concerns, other than to the doom mongers.

Continue the roll out of the vaccine until all over 18s that can have or want to have the vaccine are doubled jabbed - so probably October.

Oh and stop the charade of foreign holidays and the ridiculous traffic light system - just accept it, foreign holidays probably aren't a great idea in the middle of a pandemic!