Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Solid at the back]

How many countries is the Indian variant in now? Surely its in the US where they're seeing restrictions ease and in some states are almost back to normal and surely its in Israel aswell, are they seeing hospitalizations increase?

 

[Bozza]

Where are they getting this data from that says the Delta variant causes more serious illness and hospitalisations from? As has already been posted, there have only been 90 hospitalisations from over 5000 cases. that is currently 1.8%. The Alpha (Kent) variant was seeing 6-7% of all cases seeing someone hospitalised during it's waves from November through to February.

On hospitalisations, yesterday PHE raised the RAG status of infection severity of the Delta variant to red, although confidence level is still rated as low because data is still being gathered. Most cases are still so new, the outcomes of many of those who have it is still to play out.

Early evidence from England and Scotland suggests there may be an increased risk of hospitalisation compared to contemporaneous Alpha cases. A large number of cases are still within the follow up period. In some areas, hospital admissions show early signs of increasing, but the national trend is not clear.​

Source >>> https://assets.publishing.service.g...k_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_DELTA.pdf

The good news, of course, is those hospitalised are more likely to be younger (not offered vaccines yet / only one-jabbed) who stand a very decent chance of recovery.

But with only 40% of the UK population fully protected at this stage, there is a lot of people who could become ill and could require hospital care.

These are all maybes, obviously, but why those who are paid to look at this stuff are concerned. Concerns don't always come to fruition, but it's probably better to monitor and plan than just crossing fingers and hoping for the best.

 

[Bozza]

I've just been scanning through the news today and even the Telegraph, who tend to focus on the positive stuff, is sounding ominous. Numbers are now starting to rise, could be the expected exit wave as @kinkygerbils says or could be that the Delta variant is actually spreading much faster than anything we've seen before. I don't believe it's possible to call it either way because three data isn't there yet.

The ministers keep saying to wait until the 14th for an indication, if by that point hospitalisations and ICU occupancy are going up I reckon they'll postpone the last step.

It absolutely is spreading quicker than any other variant in circulation right now - that's the one thing we do know for certain about Delta. Data on what this translates to in terms of illness, hospitalisation and death is still unknown, but will become more apparent over the next week or two.

Delta now accounts for in excess of 70% of sequenced cases within the UK - it has pretty much squeezed out all other variants.

 

[Bozza]

How many countries is the Indian variant in now? Surely its in the US where they're seeing restrictions ease and in some states are almost back to normal and surely its in Israel aswell, are they seeing hospitalizations increase?

Most/all, as Delta seems to have transmissibility advantages over the other variants that are in circulation - we just seem to be a bit further down the track than other countries and with our advanced sequencing capabilities we are better-placed to track and monitor this stuff.

 

[highflyer]

I've just been scanning through the news today and even the Telegraph, who tend to focus on the positive stuff, is sounding ominous. Numbers are now starting to rise, could be the expected exit wave as @kinkygerbils says or could be that the Delta variant is actually spreading much faster than anything we've seen before. I don't believe it's possible to call it either way because three data isn't there yet.

The ministers keep saying to wait until the 14th for an indication, if by that point hospitalisations and ICU occupancy are going up I reckon they'll postpone the last step.

Increase in numbers of cases certainly starting to accelerate quite quickly now.

If that trend continues, and given we don't yet know precisely how much the vaccines will lower transmission rates, especially with the added unknown of the new variant(s) in the mix, a very rapid spread (while nowhere near as devastating as previous waves) would certainly be a problem for the NHS in terms of 'still to be full vaccinated' bodies out there and the backlog of other cases they are facing.

I am therefore thinking now that it is pretty unlikely the final step of unlocking will go ahead on the 21st. I'd expect an announcement on the 14th that it has been pushed back a month to allow the vaccination programme more time to get those second jabs in and to move down the age range and to see what happens in that month.

My question though (given that foreign travel wasn't going to be part of that unlocking anyway) is how much real difference will that make to most of our lives?

We are meeting, drinking, working, going to school and playng sports almost as usual.

Apart from hard core clubbers (and obviously those that own nightclubs) and gig-goers I can't see how a month's delay has such an impact that it raises so much emotion. I think people are getting hung up on both sides. The 'stay locked down for ever' crowd and the 'open up no matter what' crowd both now seem to be led more by emotion (and entrenched views) than logic.

I suggest calming down, accepting that a bit of caution may be required in light of the lessons we have all learnt in the last year, recognising that a bit of delay in that final step is a pretty minor thing for most of us and getting on with enjoying the summer (it's back tomorrow btw)

 

[beorhthelm]

Where are they getting this data from that says the Delta variant causes more serious illness and hospitalisations from? As has already been posted, there have only been 90 hospitalisations from over 5000 cases. that is currently 1.8%. The Alpha (Kent) variant was seeing 6-7% of all cases seeing someone hospitalised during it's waves from November through to February.

sounds like they'er getting it from Prof Ferguson simulations. he doesnt work with real world evidence, only his own simulation and data scientist's opinion is his models are deliberately high (evidenced over a career of inflating worse case scenarios). see article, 30-100% more transmissible when everyone else has been saying 30-40%.

the lean towards younger people likely due to not vaccinated, pointing to vaccine being effective against variant.

 

[crodonilson]

Where are they getting this data from that says the Delta variant causes more serious illness and hospitalisations from? As has already been posted, there have only been 90 hospitalisations from over 5000 cases. that is currently 1.8%. The Alpha (Kent) variant was seeing 6-7% of all cases seeing someone hospitalised during it's waves from November through to February.

 

[Bozza]

sounds like they'er getting it from Prof Ferguson simulations. he doesnt work with real world evidence, only his own simulation and data scientist's opinion is his models are deliberately high (evidenced over a career of inflating worse case scenarios). see article, 30-100% more transmissible when everyone else has been saying 30-40%.

Nope - it comes from the exceptional work that PHE are putting into this.

Their documents are well worth a read if you do have a genuine interest in what is going on and don't want the information passing through a media organisation who may have an interest in shaping how they present it.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_14.pdf

 

[Bozza]

Anyway, I'm happy to let the people who are paid to look at this stuff to do so, as I recognise they know what they are talking about and I really don't.

It's their job to be concerned because crossing your fingers isn't really a practical approach when tens of millions of people are influenced by what you do.

And I take some heart that our tremendous vaccination programme means that the UK's own worst case outcome from the Delta variant is significantly better than almost every other country.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Lockdowns are ‘awful’ and Britain must learn to live with Covid without restrictions, one of the country’s most senior scientists has warned.

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the measures had had ‘very profound consequences’ on the nation’s mental health, education and jobs.

But he was hopeful that the Government would be able to open up on June 21 based on the data so far – but stressed the next few weeks would be ‘crucial.’

There is a danger of not opening up and this infection is now a human endemic infection. It’s not going away,’ he said. ‘Humanity will live with this virus now for ever. And there will be new variants. This year, next year, the year after, there will be new variants – and we will have to learn to cope with that.

‘Lockdowns are awful. They are a mark that you haven’t been able to control the virus in other ways. They have very profound consequences on mental health, on education, on job opportunities particularly affecting people on lower incomes.

‘Societies can’t stay in that mode for ever.’

 

[LamieRobertson]

Lockdowns are ‘awful’ and Britain must learn to live with Covid without restrictions, one of the country’s most senior scientists has warned.

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the measures had had ‘very profound consequences’ on the nation’s mental health, education and jobs.

But he was hopeful that the Government would be able to open up on June 21 based on the data so far – but stressed the next few weeks would be ‘crucial.’

There is a danger of not opening up and this infection is now a human endemic infection. It’s not going away,’ he said. ‘Humanity will live with this virus now for ever. And there will be new variants. This year, next year, the year after, there will be new variants – and we will have to learn to cope with that.

‘Lockdowns are awful. They are a mark that you haven’t been able to control the virus in other ways. They have very profound consequences on mental health, on education, on job opportunities particularly affecting people on lower incomes.

‘Societies can’t stay in that mode for ever.’

I’d say all of that is pretty relevant including the bit about the next few weeks...and I wouldn’t underplay the negative effects of a delay as has been suggested by another poster ....perhaps someone can start to do some modelling on those which MSM might like to broadcast alongside there daily figures bulletin

Edit...I meant to edit my own post not quote it

 

[Bozza]

Lockdowns are ‘awful’ and Britain must learn to live with Covid without restrictions, one of the country’s most senior scientists has warned.

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the measures had had ‘very profound consequences’ on the nation’s mental health, education and jobs.

But he was hopeful that the Government would be able to open up on June 21 based on the data so far – but stressed the next few weeks would be ‘crucial.’

There is a danger of not opening up and this infection is now a human endemic infection. It’s not going away,’ he said. ‘Humanity will live with this virus now for ever. And there will be new variants. This year, next year, the year after, there will be new variants – and we will have to learn to cope with that.

‘Lockdowns are awful. They are a mark that you haven’t been able to control the virus in other ways. They have very profound consequences on mental health, on education, on job opportunities particularly affecting people on lower incomes.

‘Societies can’t stay in that mode for ever.’

It's a good job that absolutely no-one anywhere is advocating a return to any form of lockdown.

And "living with it" is absolutely what we are aiming to do, and where we want to be in the near future. Having had the chance to fully vaccinate the whole country, or those who will accept a vaccine anyway, gets us there and we're not too far away right now.

It's annoying that Delta arrived when it did. If we'd have had another 3-4 months to get more jabs in arms, I suspect concern would be considerably less than it is right now.

 

[dsr-burnley]

My question though (given that foreign travel wasn't going to be part of that unlocking anyway) is how much real difference will that make to most of our lives?

We are meeting, drinking, working, going to school and playng sports almost as usual.

My mother isn't. and she is typical of many pensioners, especially those whose health isn't too good. It is no use telling pensioners that their social clubs are operating as normal (which they aren't) and that they are working, going to school and playing sports as normal. And she hasn't (yet) turned to the bottle.

 

[A1X]

It's a good job that absolutely no-one anywhere is advocating a return to any form of lockdown.

This is vital. There are (IMHO perfectly legitimate) questions to be asked and debates to be had about delaying the removal of virtually all restrictions on 21st June, but I have not seen anyone at all claiming we need to roll back from where we are now. And I don't regard the status we're currently in as being "lockdown", we haven't been in lockdown since the "Stay At Home" rules ended back in March.

 

[Bozza]

This is vital. There are (IMHO perfectly legitimate) questions to be asked and debates to be had about delaying the removal of virtually all restrictions on 21st June, but I have not seen anyone at all claiming we need to roll back from where we are now. And I don't regard the status we're currently in as being "lockdown", we haven't been in lockdown since the "Stay At Home" rules ended back in March.

Indeed.

Shamelessly stolen from twitter (here)...

Let’s take a breath.

We are not back in March or December 2020.

Vaccines work. They work amazingly well.

We have 75% one dose / 50% both dose coverage.

We are discussing WHEN the pandemic effectively ends not IF.

We are in a strong position.​

 

[LamieRobertson]

I’ve found this person useful to follow and latest tweet gives some interesting info

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1400781786121134080?s=21

 

[nwgull]

It's a good job that absolutely no-one anywhere is advocating a return to any form of lockdown.

And "living with it" is absolutely what we are aiming to do, and where we want to be in the near future. Having had the chance to fully vaccinate the whole country, or those who will accept a vaccine anyway, gets us there and we're not too far away right now.

It's annoying that Delta arrived when it did. If we'd have had another 3-4 months to get more jabs in arms, I suspect concern would be considerably less than it is right now.

It's particularly annoying that India wasn't added to the Red List until 19th April, despite the variant being known about since the beginning of April. We wouldn't have stopped the variant spreading over here, but it'd have been significantly mitigated and bought us a few precious extra weeks of jabbing before it became dominant.

 

[highflyer]

My mother isn't. and she is typical of many pensioners, especially those whose health isn't too good. It is no use telling pensioners that their social clubs are operating as normal (which they aren't) and that they are working, going to school and playing sports as normal. And she hasn't (yet) turned to the bottle.

What is stopping her, and many others, that will (or won't) change on 21st June though?

Personally, I remain reluctant to drink/eat at restaurants and pubs indoors. and any increase in cases makes me even less inclined.
I'll stick to the beer garden for as long as I can.

But that has nothing to do with the government restrictions and will still be the case after the 21st.

It's not 'normal now' and it won't be 'normal' after the 21st. In some ways it will not be 'normal' for a very long time. That's reality. There's no magic wand to make it all go away. Ignoring reality makes it worse not better and we have to deal with it. That has been obvious from around February 2020 to anyone that was paying attention.

But not being normal don't mean it isn't much much better than it was.

 

[Bozza]

I’ve found this person useful to follow and latest tweet gives some interesting info

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1400781786121134080?s=21

Already read it. She's been excellent throughout.

 

[LamieRobertson]

My mother isn't. and she is typical of many pensioners, especially those whose health isn't too good. It is no use telling pensioners that their social clubs are operating as normal (which they aren't) and that they are working, going to school and playing sports as normal. And she hasn't (yet) turned to the bottle.

Agreed ..I guess it’s who’s shoes you walk in