Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bozza]

so what should be done, continue as present or a roll back to earlier restrictions, and for how long?

My opinion, although I'll repeat again that I essentially know nothing at all, is that right now it would feel somewhat churlish to further loosen restrictions on the 21st June, but the data gathered over the next week-10 days is going to be key in that.

Specifically, we need to understand more about how these Delta infections convert into hospitalisations and deaths.

Gut feel, for me, is to look to delay further loosening until the schools break up for their summer holiday, around the 24th July down here, as school transmission does seem to be a key driver here and that can't happen when the kids have broken up.

I'll repeat though: I know nothing about epidemiology and public healthcare, and I don't envy those who have to make the big decisions on this stuff.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Over 6,000 cases announced today, this is getting out of hand.

How many deaths and hospitalisations?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

For me carry on as at present, unless the Delta variant begins to cause significant concerns, other than to the doom mongers.

Continue the roll out of the vaccine until all over 18s that can have or want to have the vaccine are doubled jabbed - so probably October.

Oh and stop the charade of foreign holidays and the ridiculous traffic light system - just accept it, foreign holidays probably aren't a great idea in the middle of a pandemic!

You would like our exit wave to be during the winter?

 

[darkwolf666]

How many deaths and hospitalisations?

Come on, play fair, we All know there is a lag between cases, hospitalisations and deaths - come back to this thread in 3 weeks time and if they are still down THEN take the piss...

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Come on, play fair, we All know there is a lag between cases, hospitalisations and deaths - come back to this thread in 3 weeks time and if they are still down THEN take the piss...

How is it taking the piss? Cases have been going up for a while now


More good news from Bolton Hospital. Number of Covid patients has fallen again. Now 34 Covid patients in total, down from 49 last Thursday. Six in ICU/HDU down from 12 on Mon. 3 new admission in past 24 hours but 8 discharges #Covid19UK
2:46 pm · 4 Jun 2021·Twitter Web App
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Shaun Lintern [MENTION=24792]Shaun[/MENTION]Lintern
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2h
Replying to [MENTION=24792]Shaun[/MENTION]Lintern
Across England as a whole, the internal NHS data says there are now 803 Covid patients in hospital, up from 779 yday. 801 on Wed. So holding steady for now...52 new admissions in past 24 hours but 90 discharges.
Shaun Lintern [MENTION=24792]Shaun[/MENTION]Lintern
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2h
Discharges are super important for the NHS capacity now. It appears at least over the past week or so that the rate of Covid admissions is being more than matched by discharges.

A sign of vaccine effect on severity of disease?

 

[Bozza]

How is it taking the piss? Cases have been going up for a while now

We all desperately hope they remain low as the days go by, but for now I'm heeding the words of the likes of PHE epidemiologist Meaghan Kall on this:

"Important to note that many of our Delta cases are still relatively recent (82% less than 28 days old) & so many people have not yet had time to be hospitalised and die, if they’re going to. This may explain why we aren’t yet seeing reflected in national admission/death figures"​

[tweet]1400491286923255812[/tweet]

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

We all desperately hope they remain low as the days go by, but for now I'm heeding the words of the likes of PHE epidemiologist Meaghan Kall on this:

"Important to note that many of our Delta cases are still relatively recent (82% less than 28 days old) & so many people have not yet had time to be hospitalised and die, if they’re going to. This may explain why we aren’t yet seeing reflected in national admission/death figures"​

[tweet]1400491286923255812[/tweet]

I added a tweet to my original post after I found it, has some numbers which suggest people are not getting as ill/needed as long in hospital.

Even in a hot spot of Bolton they are currently decreasing.

Yodas post above has a break down of cases as well, which is good news.

 

[Bozza]

I added a tweet to my original post after I found it, has some numbers which suggest people are not getting as ill/needed as long in hospital.

Even in a hot spot of Bolton they are currently decreasing.

I'd already read those tweets earlier this afternoon, and the narrative it heartening.

As I say, I'm going to listen to a PHE epidemiologist if that's OK.

No one, anywhere, has anything definitive on this yet and the bulk of Delta cases are still too new to have fully played out. Let's keep our fingers crossed...

 

[darkwolf666]

You would like our exit wave to be during the winter?

Why not, if its all going to be good in 17 days time with 50% double jabbed, then it should be a doddle with upto 90% adults fully vaccinated...

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Why not, if its all going to be good in 17 days time with 50% double jabbed, then it should be a doddle with upto 90% adults fully vaccinated...

The vaccine isn't 100 percent perfect, there will be an increased numbers in NHS after a year of cancelled appointments and the normal flu numbers - adding the numbers that will be affected by an wave on exiting fully will push it beyond its limits.

 

[Yoda]

I'd already read those tweets earlier this afternoon, and the narrative it heartening.

As I say, I'm going to listen to a PHE epidemiologist if that's OK.

No one, anywhere, has anything definitive on this yet and the bulk of Delta cases are still too new to have fully played out. Let's keep our fingers crossed...

Agree, but the early sign's are heart warming. Let's hope the continue to be as if case's carry on increasing slightly, but people in hospital & deaths continue to stay flat, shouldn't be a reason to not to worry or panic.

 

[darkwolf666]

The vaccine isn't 100 percent perfect, there will be an increased numbers in NHS after a year of cancelled appointments and the normal flu numbers - adding the numbers that will be affected by an wave on exiting fully will push it beyond its limits.

So, we're back into flattening the curve territory...

I would imagine there will be a massive flu vaccine uptake again this year and also believe many vulnerable people will continue to take steps of mitigation to reduce risk - I'm not convinced the Autumn wave would be as bad as you fear - however as [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] has repeatedly said, what do we know!

 

[Bozza]

Agree, but the early sign's are heart warming. Let's hope the continue to be as if case's carry on increasing slightly, but people in hospital & deaths continue to stay flat, shouldn't be a reason to not to worry or panic.

I'm not sure they are - Bolton is just one hospital and the PHE technical paper yesterday erred towards Delta infections requiring more hospitalisations.

Oliver Johnson, very much a middle-of-the-road analyst, has been plotting hospitalisations lagged 10 days from cases and the positive vaccination effect is obvious to see, but we seem to have settled around 5% of cases requiring hospitalisation currently.

[tweet]1400855597583642631[/tweet]

If that holds, it becomes quite simple maths to project forward.

 

[Bozza]

In other news, "step 3.5" on June 21st?

Social distancing in hospitality venues, working from home and masks on public transport could all remain in place after 21 June under plans being considered to revise the roadmap out of lockdown, i understands.

According to senior Government advisers, the current thinking in Downing Street is that many restrictions will need to remain in place after so-called “Freedom Day” to avoid another full lockdown in the autumn.

It means the full lifting of lockdown restrictions are likely to be delayed for “a few weeks” due to concerns over new variants of Covid-19 and increased pressure on the NHS.​

More >>> https://inews.co.uk/news/june-21-re...-home-masks-may-remain-redraw-roadmap-1035947

 

[Weststander]

That's more than a bit snidey and uncalled for.

Crodo has clearly voiced his concerns over the last few weeks, no after timer there, and don't suppose for one minute he is gloating, in a "told you so way"

“Weeks”?

Daily for 15 months.

 

[loz]

In Bolton Hospitals, the number of Covid patients has fallen again. Now 34 Covid patients in total, down from 49 last Thursday. Six in ICU/HDU down from 12 on Mon. 3 new admission in past 24 hours but 8 discharges.

Across England as a whole, the internal NHS data says there are now 803 Covid patients in hospital, up from 779 yday. 801 on Wed. So holding steady for now...52 new admissions in past 24 hours but 90 discharges.

 

[Weststander]

In Bolton Hospitals, the number of Covid patients has fallen again. Now 34 Covid patients in total, down from 49 last Thursday. Six in ICU/HDU down from 12 on Mon. 3 new admission in past 24 hours but 8 discharges.

Across England as a whole, the internal NHS data says there are now 803 Covid patients in hospital, up from 779 yday. 801 on Wed. So holding steady for now...52 new admissions in past 24 hours but 90 discharges.

I would hope that the marked rise in cases in Bolton, Moray, Londonderry, West and South Yorkshire, has been a huge wake up call to the folk who had refused vaccines.

They owe it to themselves, friends, family and society to get it done.

The cases stats prove the area-by-area effect from residents vaccinating or not.

 

[crodonilson]

In other news, "step 3.5" on June 21st?

Social distancing in hospitality venues, working from home and masks on public transport could all remain in place after 21 June under plans being considered to revise the roadmap out of lockdown, i understands.

According to senior Government advisers, the current thinking in Downing Street is that many restrictions will need to remain in place after so-called “Freedom Day” to avoid another full lockdown in the autumn.

It means the full lifting of lockdown restrictions are likely to be delayed for “a few weeks” due to concerns over new variants of Covid-19 and increased pressure on the NHS.​

More >>> https://inews.co.uk/news/june-21-re...-home-masks-may-remain-redraw-roadmap-1035947

That seems more like step 3.01, what difference is that to now?? I agree though at the very worst we should delay for another 3 weeks or so by which the we should have good data on the effects the current surge in cases us having in hospitalisations and deaths. To many ifs and question marks to enable any further lifting at this stage.

 

[LamieRobertson]

“Weeks”?

Daily for 15 months.

Correct

 

[crodonilson]

Correct

Poor form, feel free to dredge up my 450+ covid posts. I have tried to contribute, particularly to demonstrate how serious this is and respresent those if us on here who may be vulnerable on here to covid (and I speak as a morbidly obese man with life limiting health conditions). I have contributed to the good news thread and offered thumbs up when appropriate but unfortunately we are now at a crossroads where we my yet do the right thing, not for the impatient few but the good of the majority. Failure to do so may well mean another Autumn/Winter lockdown.