Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Sussexscots]

I'm getting confused now. Hancock is talking about vaccinating 12-15 year olds before we assist other countries.

Yet we know that this age group is at almost no risk from Covid.

So We'd be vaccinating them to stop them infecting others.

But one of the arguments of the lockdown zealots for retaining restrictions is we don't know if the vaccines stop the vaccinated from passing it on.

Yet we're happy to inject children with what is still an experimental drug for a disease which poses almost no threat to them. In order to stop them spreading the disease to already inoculated adults. But we don't know if it stops said transmission anyway.

What am I missing?

 

[LamieRobertson]

Poor form, feel free to dredge up my 450+ covid posts. I have tried to contribute, particularly to demonstrate how serious this is and respresent those if us on here who may be vulnerable on here to covid (and I speak as a morbidly obese man with life limiting health conditions). I have contributed to the good news thread and offered thumbs up when appropriate but unfortunately we are now at a crossroads where we my yet do the right thing, not for the impatient few but the good of the majority. Failure to do so may well mean another Autumn/Winter lockdown.

Hardly....will you be saying the same to Westander? ..i see little point in saying more as we clearly see things differently so perhaps best leave it there...happy to converse about other topics

 

[Bozza]

I'm getting confused now. Hancock is talking about vaccinating 12-15 year olds before we assist other countries.

Yet we know that this age group is at almost no risk from Covid.

So We'd be vaccinating them to stop them infecting others.

But one of the arguments of the lockdown zealots for retaining restrictions is we don't know if the vaccines stop the vaccinated from passing it on.

Yet we're happy to inject children with what is still an experimental drug for a disease which poses almost no threat to them. In order to stop them spreading the disease to already inoculated adults. But we don't know if it stops said transmission anyway.

What am I missing?

A lot. But when you're using terms such as "lockdown zealots" and "experimental drug" I know nothing I could say is likely to make a blind bit of difference to your outlook.

However, I'll leave you one bundle of stats though about your "almost no risk" cohort, drawn from today's excellent ONS paper...

Prevalence estimates: kids & young people currently living with Long Covid in the UK:

2-11y: 11,000 (95% CI 7,000-16,000)
12-16y: 19,000 (95% CI 15,000-24,000)
17-24y: 89,000 (95% CI 77,000-101,000)

 

[crodonilson]

Hardly....will you be saying the same to Westander? ..i see little point in saying more as we clearly see things differently so perhaps best leave it there...happy to converse about other topics

Yes I'll point up [MENTION=21158]Weststander[/MENTION] in it too and I have a lot of time for him on the board, and agreed with a lot of what he said when arguing why the EPL should restarts last year but I was ignorant of the
real risks particularly to the BAME community. Now is the time to learn our lessons and be humble in the face of the third wave and for once make good, proactive decisions.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Another interesting guy to follow ...gives it how it is (I believe)

https://twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1400720398480809985?s=21

 

[LamieRobertson]

A lot. But when you're using terms such as "lockdown zealots" and "experimental drug" I know nothing I could say is likely to make a blind bit of difference to your outlook.

However, I'll leave you one bundle of stats though about your "almost no risk" cohort, drawn from today's excellent ONS paper...

Prevalence estimates: kids & young people currently living with Long Covid in the UK:

2-11y: 11,000 (95% CI 7,000-16,000)
12-16y: 19,000 (95% CI 15,000-24,000)
17-24y: 89,000 (95% CI 77,000-101,000)

...so they should be vaccinated before the ‘vulnerable’ in other countries?

..interesting survey

 

[Sussexscots]

A lot. But when you're using terms such as "lockdown zealots" and "experimental drug" I know nothing I could say is likely to make a blind bit of difference to your outlook.

However, I'll leave you one bundle of stats though about your "almost no risk" cohort, drawn from today's excellent ONS paper...

Prevalence estimates: kids & young people currently living with Long Covid in the UK:

2-11y: 11,000 (95% CI 7,000-16,000)
12-16y: 19,000 (95% CI 15,000-24,000)
17-24y: 89,000 (95% CI 77,000-101,000)

'Excellent'? Self reported and experimental as cited and caveated in the preamble to the report.

The vaccines ARE experimental drugs. They have been approved for use under 'Conditions for authorisation for emergency supply'. That's just a fact.

I'm not anti vax if that's the conclusion you've drawn. I've had mine, but understood that these were not vaccines in the traditional sense.

I'm in my late 50's so on a risk/benefit basis that was the right thing to do. I'd be less sanguine about having a child of mine receive one. Oe perhaps you simply prefer those Children be vaccinated before the vulnerable in other countries?

Equally, I imagine that none of my concerns are likely to make a blind bit of difference to you.

 

[Bozza]

...so they should be vaccinated before the ‘vulnerable’ in other countries?

Where did I say that?

 

[LamieRobertson]

GPs have missed the opportunity to diagnose nearly 35,000 people suffering with dementia in the last year because of poor access to surgeries, experts have warned.

In stark evidence of the indirect toll of the pandemic, the number of assessments for the disease by family doctors fell by more than half in the 12 months to March this year.

Meanwhile, the number of referrals for memory assessments – a key gateway to a diagnosis of dementia – fell by 46 per cent.


My Dad was told a year ...six months too long

 

[LamieRobertson]

Where did I say that?

You didn’t...I was repeating his question but without underplaying the risks to children (which work both ways)

 

[Bozza]

You didn’t...I was repeating his question but without underplaying the risks to children (which work both ways)

Right.

As ever throughout this, it's difficult to engage in meaningful conversation with you as you invariably make a few slightly vague posts and then scuttle off claiming that we clearly don't agree so you're departing, pretty much as you did with Crodo a few posts above.

I can't answer the question. Unlike a lot of people, I'm prepared to hold my hands up and admit my knowledge in these incredibly complex areas is almost nil. I don't have training, experience nor knowledgable advisors to help guide me to what might be the right answer, and I can't imagine having to make any of the huge decisions that have had to have been made throughout the course of this pandemic. In almost every case there it seems that there is no right answer, and it's a matter of trying to find the least wrong one.

All I can do is trust that those who do make the decisions do so for the right reasons at the time. Hindsight may show they made a mistake, but we don't get to make decisions with the benefit of hindsight unfortunately.

 

[darkwolf666]

Another interesting guy to follow ...gives it how it is (I believe)

https://twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1400720398480809985?s=21

Made an interesting read indeed. I am amazed how many people there are out there, who appear to be doing an amazing amount of independent good, unbiased, analysis - with little histrionics or pumped up rhetoric!

This guys balanced view, with the data we have to hand at present, appears to be leaning towards a delay in easing of the final restrictions until September.

 

[darkwolf666]

'Excellent'? Self reported and experimental as cited and caveated in the preamble to the report.

The vaccines ARE experimental drugs. They have been approved for use under 'Conditions for authorisation for emergency supply'. That's just a fact.

I'm not anti vax if that's the conclusion you've drawn. I've had mine, but understood that these were not vaccines in the traditional sense.

I'm in my late 50's so on a risk/benefit basis that was the right thing to do. I'd be less sanguine about having a child of mine receive one. Oe perhaps you simply prefer those Children be vaccinated before the vulnerable in other countries?

Equally, I imagine that none of my concerns are likely to make a blind bit of difference to you.

Unfortunately you have made it quite difficult to have a reasoned conversation with as you have clearly nailed your sail to the mast with your previous “this ends now” comment concerning the June 21st date.

Having said that, could you clarify why the Covid vaccine isn’t a vaccine in the “traditional sense”?

This definition is from the Vaccinne Alliance website..

Most vaccines are given to healthy people to prevent infection with a disease-causing organism, but sometimes vaccines are used to fight an existing infection or illness. Such ‘therapeutic’ vaccines are being developed for numerous illnesses, including dengue, cholera and cancer.

Do the various Covid vaccines not fit this description?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

How many countries is the Indian variant in now? Surely its in the US where they're seeing restrictions ease and in some states are almost back to normal and surely its in Israel aswell, are they seeing hospitalizations increase?

Israel was 70%+ double vaccinated when they lifted restrictions. We are not quite at that level yet.

Also Israel is majority Pfizer vaccinated. We are most commonly AZ.

So there are differences which should be explored.

 

[CHAPPERS]

Israel’s borders have also been almost totally closed.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Made an interesting read indeed. I am amazed how many people there are out there, who appear to be doing an amazing amount of independent good, unbiased, analysis - with little histrionics or pumped up rhetoric!

This guys balanced view, with the data we have to hand at present, appears to be leaning towards a delay in easing of the final restrictions until September.

Aye...it’s stuff that I wish journalists would report on...it’s not always stuff you want to hear ...but as you saw it’s put in a balanced and factual way and the guys not looking to see, attention ...re dates my GUESS it’s in the balance

 

[LamieRobertson]

Right.

As ever throughout this, it's difficult to engage in meaningful conversation with you as you invariably make a few slightly vague posts and then scuttle off claiming that we clearly don't agree so you're departing, pretty much as you did with Crodo a few posts above.

I can't answer the question. Unlike a lot of people, I'm prepared to hold my hands up and admit my knowledge in these incredibly complex areas is almost nil. I don't have training, experience nor knowledgable advisors to help guide me to what might be the right answer, and I can't imagine having to make any of the huge decisions that have had to have been made throughout the course of this pandemic. In almost every case there it seems that there is no right answer, and it's a matter of trying to find the least wrong one.

All I can do is trust that those who do make the decisions do so for the right reasons at the time. Hindsight may show they made a mistake, but we don't get to make decisions with the benefit of hindsight unfortunately.

How kind..such a condescending first paragraph ..I scuttled off as you call it to avoid any further nastiness which is hard not to do having read what you typed. Yes i remember the last time we disagreed ..you said i ‘’disappointed you’’ ..I’ll refrain from throwing comments back at you and telling you exactly what i think.

 

[darkwolf666]

Aye...it’s stuff that I wish journalists would report on...it’s not always stuff you want to hear ...but as you saw it’s put in a balanced and factual way and the guys not looking to see, attention ...re dates my GUESS it’s in the balance

My stab in the dark for October doesn't look quite so much like a lone voice now!

It will indeed be interesting to see how "data, not dates" pans out - spin doctors (pun!) will have to earn their money to get June 21st through as intended.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Just 90 cases of Nepalese mutation found worldwide
Just 90 cases of the Nepalese mutation have been found worldwide, said a leading Portuguese scientist, as the UK was accused of creating a “storm in a teacup”.

The Government is facing growing criticism for using the excuse of the Nepalese mutation to axe Portugal from the UK’s green travel list.

Joao Paulo Gomes, a scientific investigator working out of the prestigious Dr Ricardo Jorge Institute in Lisbon, said Britain had exaggerated the risk posed by the mutation.

He was supported by leading British genome and immunology experts who said the Government had “gone too far” and acted prematurely with the result that tens of thousands of Britons’ holiday plans had been dashed and thousands of jobs threatened in the travel industry.

Mr Gomes, an expert feeding into the Portuguese government’s response to the pandemic, said there had been only 12 recorded cases of the Nepalese mutation in Portugal, just 90 worldwide and no evidence to suggest it was any more virulent than the Indian variant from which it derived.

 

[crodonilson]

My stab in the dark for October doesn't look quite so much like a lone voice now!

It will indeed be interesting to see how "data, not dates" pans out - spin doctors (pun!) will have to earn their money to get June 21st through as intended.

This Tory government will spin some loosening of measures on 21st to save face but we all know it will not and can not be a full loosening of restrictions. I'd imagine it will include being able to order drinks at the bar in a pub and allowing 3 households to meet indoors but the rule of 6, capacity limits, face masks and social distancing will remain for the foreseeable future.